Market Efficiency Flashcards
Description of Efficient Markets
- informationally efficient market
- only unexpected information should move prices
- in a perfectly efficient market investors should use a passive investment strategy
- market value = intrinsic value
Forms of Market Efficiency
Weak form
Semi-strong form
Strong form
Weak Form
Market prices reflect:
Past Market Data. Public info. Private info
Yes No No
Technical analysis cannot make abnormal returns on a consistent basis simply by analyzing historical market info
Semi-Strong Form
Market prices reflect:
Past Market Data. Public info. Private info
Yes Yes No
- prices adjust quickly and accurately to new public info
- efforts to analyze publicly available info is futile
- fundamental analysis will not lead to abnormal returns in the long run.
EMs may not be semi-strong form efficient
Strong Form
Market prices reflect:
Past Market Data. Public info. Private info
Yes Yes Yes
- investors will not be able to earn abnormal profits by trading on private info
- markets are not strong-form efficient as regulations prohibit the use of private info (insider trading)
Securities markets are NOT _____ form efficient
are not strong form efficient
If markets are semi-strong form efficient, active portfolio managers cannot outperform the market on a consistent basis, therefore
investors should invest passively
Time-series Anomalies
- calendar anomalies
- momentum and overreaction anomalies
Cross-sectional anomalies
- size effect: small-cap tend to perform better than large-cap
- value effect: value stocks tend to perform better than growth stocks
Behavioral Finance
- uses human psychology to explain investment decisions
Loss aversion
- investors dislike losses more than they like gains of the same amount
Herding
- WSB
- information cascades: people following 13Fs
Overconfidence
- investors place too much confidence in their ability to process and analyze information and thus value a security
Mental accounting
investors divide investments into separate mental accounts, do not view them as a total portfolio
Narrow framing
- investors focus on issues in isolation