Macroanalysis Flashcards
Nominal int. rate formula vs real interest rate formula
Nominal int. rate = Real rate + price level
Real int. Rate = Nominal Int. Rate – price level
The government´s budget deficit is
the difference between government spending and revenues.
Cyclical Industries
those with an above average sensitivity to the macroeconomic environment
BUSINESS CYCLES
The bottom of the recessionary trend is called the
trough
Defensive Industries
generate a stable flow of income and profits through the cycle. Examples of this type are food producers and processors, pharmaceuticals and utilities. These are the kind of industries that will perform well in a recession. This firms will tend to be Low Beta stocks.
ISM / PMI Manufacturing and Services Indices
calculate new orders at a number of manufacturing and non manufacturing firms
the stock market should be …
a “near efficient” predictor of future profits
Sector Rotation
shift the portfolio more heavily into industries or sectors that are expected to outperform depending on the state of the business cycle
Consolidation Stage
Industry leaders emerge, earnings become more stable and market share is easier to predict. The industry continues to grow faster than the rest of the economy.