Lecture Notes Flashcards
explain the:
what? who? where? when? why? so what?
of the epidemiological approach
what - case definition who - person where - place when - time why - causes/determinants
so what - prevention and control
define “epidemiology”
the study of the distribution and determinants of disease frequency
(in human populations)
what different factors come under “distribution of disease”?
time
place
person - age, gender, social class, ethnicity etc.
differentiate between a suspected, probable and confirmed case of an infectious disease (e.g. a measles outbreak)
this will be defined by the case definition.
suspected - clinical features (e.g. fever and rash)
probable - clinical features + contact with confirmed case
confirmed case - clinical features and positive microbiology, serology etc.
what is a case definition?
set of standard criteria for deciding whether or not a person has a particular disease or health related event
explain the “sufficient, necessary and component” causes model
causation is multifactoral - individual ‘causes’ = components.
if enough components are combined, disease is expressed.
combination of component causes = sufficient cause.
some factors may be “necessary” causes (i.e. cannot experience disease without them), but often need more than just one necessary cause to express disease
define prevalence
a measure of the proportion of the population that has a given disease, condition or characteristic at a given time (or time period)
define point prevalence
no. cases at a point in time, compared with the total population
define period prevalence
no. cases identified over a period of time, compared with no. people in the population over this time period.
NB - not NEW cases (that’s incidence!), just existing cases
define incidence
frequency of NEW cases in a defined population in a specified time period
define cumulative incidence (RISK)
no. NEW cases occurring over a given period of time in the population at risk at the BEGINNING of the time period
what 4 different relative measures come under the term “relative risk”
prevalence ratio
risk ratio
rate ratio
odds ratio
what does relative risk measure?
measures the strength of association between exposure and disease
how do you interpret relative risk?
avoid using “more” or “less”
it’s a ratio telling us “how many times more likely” the outcome is in the exposed group
e.g. “the exposed group has a RR 1.25 times the risk of the unexposed group”
or
the exposed group were 1.25 times more likely to (have the outcome) than the unexposed group
what are the 4 different measures of impact of a risk factor?
- attributable risk (aka excess risk)
- attributable risk fraction (or %)
- population attributable risk
- population attributable risk fraction (or %)
what is attributable risk?
the excess incidence of our outcome that can be attributed to the exposure
what does using an attributable risk fraction adjust for?
the fact that the exposed group would have had some disease anyway - AR fails to take into account the underlying, background rate.
i.e. - not all illness, even in the exposed group, will be due to the exposure
what does the attributable risk fraction tell us?
what proportion of disease IN THE EXPOSED GROUP is attributable to the exposure
what does population attributable fraction tell us?
what proportion of disease in the POPULATION that is attributable to the exposure
e.g. interpret PAF of 0.96 as “96% of (outcome) in the population are attributable to (exposure)
why is age standardisation useful?
allows comparisons to be made between two populations with different age distributions
let’s you adjust for the confounder of age
e.g. can compare rates of CVD in two populations, even if one is a significantly older population
what is a crude death rate?
death rate for the whole population, with no age (or other factor) adjustment
describe how DIRECT age standardisation works
calculate death rates for each age group in your population
apply these rates to the same age groups in a “standard population”
produces expected deaths for each age group, and can total these to get the DSR (directly standardised rate) per 1000.
e.g. total population = 1000
total expected deaths = 38.5
DSR = 38.5 deaths per 1000 population
describe how INDIRECT age standardisation works
take a set of “standard death rates”
apply these rates to your population
this produces expected deaths per age group
then you get the ratio of observed to expected deaths:
SMR = O/E
(SMR = standardised mortality ratio)
what is a cross-sectional study?
a study in which data are collected on each study participant at a single point in time
a SNAPSHOT
aka prevalence study
what are the two types of cross-sectional study?
descriptive and analytical
what do descriptive cross-sectional studies do?
what do they measure?
collect info on frequency and distribution of health-related exposures or outcomes, in a defined population.
measure point or period prevalence of the outcome OR exposure
how are data typically collected for a cross-sectional study?
surveys
what do analytical cross sectional studies do?
investigate the association between exposure to risk factors and the outcome of interest
(NB - the info is collected simultaneously on each individual - no temporality!)
what are the differences between an analytical and a descriptive cross-sectional study?
descriptive cross-sectional studies basically just find the prevalence of an exposure or outcome, whereas analytical cross-sectional studies look at both exposures and outcomes to investigate the association between the two
what types of bias are cross-sectional studies particularly susceptible to?
recall bias - if asked about exposures that occurred a long time ago
non-response bias - always an issue with surveys - look at what the response rate is in the study
what measures are used in analysis of a cross-sectional study?
prevalence (of disease OR exposure)
prevalence ratio and prevalence odds ratios - for outcomes or exposures
list some advantages of a cross-sectional study
- quick, cheap and easy (ish!)
- provides prevalence of risk factors and disease in a defined population
- useful for health service planning
- repeated studies can monitor changes over time
list some disadvantages of a cross-sectional study
- exposure and disease info collected simultaneously = problems with temporal sequence - disease may modify exposure etc
- studying prevalent cases = can miss out cases with quick recovery, or short survival
- bias - recall, non-response
- not useful for rare conditions
what is an ecological study?
a study carried out at the population (or group) level rather than at the individual level
what is a multi-group ecological study?
aka ecological correlation study.
compares different groups (or areas) at a point in time
what is a time-trend study?
a type of ecological study, aka a time series study.
examines data in a population over time.
investigates if changes in incidence correlate with changes in exposures over time.
can be long (e.g. seasonal variation) or short (e.g. daily variation)
give examples of information that might be available at a population level, but not an individual level?
to study these, we do an ecological study
pollution income GDP and other national statistics per-capita consumption climate diet etc. etc.
give some reasons to study groups/populations
ecological studies
- to investigate differences between populations
- to study group-level effects (e.g. seat belt law only works at a group level!)
- convenience and availability of group level data (e.g. air pollution data is only available at a group level)
- quick and cheap study design!
give 4 reasons why ecological studies must be interpreted with caution
- confounders - often, you can’t adjust for these due to lack of data
- bias - data may be collected using different methods or definitions over time or in different places
- ecological fallacy
- migration of populations between groups can dilute differences
what is the “ecological fallacy”
cannot assume that group level associations between exposure and outcome will also apply at the individual level
e.g. increased meat consumption and breast cancer rates - is it the meat-eaters who get the cancer?
what is a cohort study?
a “follow up” or “observational” study.
a cohort = a group of individuals sharing a common characteristic.
cohort studies take exposed and unexposed cohorts and follow them up over time, measuring incidence.
may be prospective or retrospective.
exposure is decided before outcome is observed.
what does a cohort study do?
compares INCIDENCE of an outcome in individuals with different exposure to a risk.
useful for investigating rare exposures, and/or several outcomes.
what measures does a cohort study provide?
risk ratio, odds ratio or rate ratio.
derived from incidence that is measured over the course of the study.
can use these to calculate AR and PAR
what are the two main types of cohort study?
prospective and retrospective.
prospectives start now and follow-up into future.
retrospective use existing data on exposures and outcomes.
how do retrospective cohort studies work?
all the events have already taken place, and records of them must exist.
a ‘start date’ for the study is in the past, and then records are checked to see what outcome(s) developed after the start date.
does NOT look back from an outcome to find the exposures!!
explain some factors that must be considered in selecting a study population for a cohort study
if it’s a common exposure, select your population before classifying by exposure - if it’s a rare outcome, you may need to recruit on the basis of exposure.
in selecting an unexposed group, you may choose either an internal or external comparison group, or compare with general population - but beware healthy worker effect
what are some important considerations to do with collection of outcome data in cohort studies?
might need a long follow-up period - loss to follow up (aka attrition) may be a serious problem!
data should be collected without knowledge of exposure status
how do you decide whether a risk or rate (ratio) is most appropriate for a cohort study?
if follow up times for all participants are similar, use risk.
if they vary, use rate so that person-time at risk is taken into account.
list 5 things that could explain an observed association between exposure and outcome in a cohort study
- true association
- bias
- confounding
- chance
- reverse causality
list the 9 Bradford Hill criteria for causality
- strength
- consistency
- dose-response
- temporality
- plausibility
- reversibility
- coherence
- analogy
- specificity
which of the 9 Bradford Hill criteria for causality do cohort studies do a good job of meeting?
temporality!
one of the few study designs that definitely meet this criteria
define bias
any error that results in a systematic deviation from the true estimation of the association between exposure and outcome
(a systematic error which leads to a distortion of the truth)
list some of the important biases affecting cohort studies
loss to follow up (selection bias)
non-participation (selection bias)
classification of outcome and exposure (observer bias)