Lecture 5 Flashcards
What is Modernization Theory
○ All societies develop through a series of stages
§ Immature society; mature society
□ Large agriculture -> small agriculture
□ Small industry -> large industry
□ Small service -> large service
□ Dictatorship -> democracy
What are the series of stages in modernization theory
Immature society; mature society
Large agriculture -> small agriculture
Small industry -> large industry
Small service -> large service
Dictatorship -> democracy
What is a central implication of classic modernization theory
there must be a strong relationship between economic development and democracy
what is Przeworski’s survival story
Predicts that democracy is more likely to survive as countries develop and become wealthier but it is more likely to emerge
He found that no democracy collapsed so long as it had a per capita income higher than that of Argentina in 75
Why does wealth help democratic survival
either you are guaranteed a minimal standard of consumption (democracy)
or you win or lose everything (dictatorship)
If you’re rich autocracy is a big gamble
If you’re poor autocracy is less of a gamble
Bates and Lien argue that what structural changes occurred in early modern Europe played a crucial role in the creation of representation government
Peasants moved from rural to urban areas and the gentry became increasingly involved in commercial activities in the towns
When does Democracy emerge
When the state is dependent
when the elites have credible tax threats
Empirical evidence of modernization theory
Increases in wealth make the emergence of democracy more likely
Dictatorships that produce good economic performance are less likely to become democracies
Dictatorships that are oil producers are less likely to become democracies