lecture 3: price formation Flashcards
merit order
ranking of suppliers based on variable costs
uniform price
MCP is the same for everyone
contribution margin
MCP - variable costs
influence supply on spot market
weather (direct = sunshine, wind, snow melt, water flow, indirect = cooling), unplanned outages, congestion in the grid, CO2 emission permits,
influence demand on spot market
weather (temperature), seasonality (holidays, etc)
forward contract
agreement to buy an underlying asset (e.g. commodity) at a given price at a time in the future
futures contract
standardized (hence more liquid) forward contract
physically long / short
net producer / net consumer
financially long / short
buyer / seller of futures
hedging
limiting the market risks (e.g. a producer sells a future)
types of basis risks
product basis (future is not exactly the same as production or consumption), location basis, time basis
forward curve
current price as a function of the time of the future contracts
types of forward curves
contango (futures price > current spot market price)
backwardation (futures price < current spot market price)