LECTURE 3 - part 2 Flashcards
Time Series Forecasting (definition)
a quantitative forecasting model that uses time series to develop forecasts
Time series (definition)
a series of observations arranged in chronological order
Demand patterns (3)
- Randomness
- Trend
- Seasonality
Last period model (definition)
the simplest time series model which uses demand for the current period as a forecast for the next period
Moving average (definition)
a time series forecasting method that derives a forecast by taking an average of recent demand values
Weighted moving average model (definition)
A form of the moving average model that allows the actual weights applied to past observations to differ
Linear Regression
A statistical technique that expresses a forecast variable (y) as a linear function of some independent variable (x)
Seasonality (definition)
repeated patterns or drops in a time series associated with certain times of the year
Causal forecasting methods (definition)
A class of quantitive forecasting models in which the forecast is modeled as a function of something other than time
Time series models (4)
- moving average
- weighted moving average
- Exponential smoothing
- Linear regression
Causal models (2)
- Linear regression
- Multiple regression
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment
a set of business processes, backed up by information technology, in which supply chain partners agree to mutal business objectives and measures, develop joint sales and operational plans, and collaborate to generate and updatae sales forecasts and replenishmetn plans
