lecture 11: sentiment Flashcards

1
Q

Sentiment

A

the net amount of any group of market players’ optimism or pessimism reflected in any asset or market price at a particular time

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

when is a price reversal is usually due?

A

When emotion becomes excessive and prices thereby deviate substantially from the norm

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

The market is made up of which 3 types of players

A

The informed

the uninformed

liquidity players

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

The majority of market players

A

The informed

The retail investors – the public at large, those who tend to chase the market

They are the ones who tend to buy at peaks and sell at market bottoms

Even professionals can be classified as uniformed. It is the timing of their actions that qualifies them as uniformed players.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

The informed market players

A

tend to act in a way that is contrary to the majority

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

CROWD BEHAVIOR

A

People tend to conform to their group, making taking an opposite view difficult, fear of rejection, ridicule, hostility etc.

People feel secure in accepting the opinions of others or “experts”.

As people “follow the herd” they get caught up in extreme buying or selling, pushing prices to extreme levels.

These emotional excesses can result in crashes or bubbles and going against the crowd before the peak or bottom could be dangerous

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

CONTRARY OPINION

A

a school of thought in investing which is the opposite of crowd behavior.

It involves doing the opposite of what the majority is currently doing. That is, to sell when the majority is buying and to buy when the majority is selling.

The task of the contrarian player is to find a way in which to quantify which direction the majority of market players is headed and to question whether they are reaching an extreme and whether there is enough energy to keep the market moving in that direction

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

Sentiment Indicators

A

data sets that give the technical analyst some feeling for how much prices are at emotionally excessive levels

Emotional excess is often sharpest at market bottoms when panic has occurred.

On the other hand optimism can last for a long while.

–> Therefore, most sentiment indicators are more useful in determining market bottoms when fear has reached an excess

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

How is sentiment of uninformed players measured?

A

SENTIMENT INDICATORS BASED ON OPTIONS AND VOLATILITY

POLLS

OTHER

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

SENTIMENT INDICATORS BASED ON OPTIONS AND VOLATILITY

PUT/CALL RATIO

A

Total volume of puts traded in a day / Total volume of calls traded in a day

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

If the put/call ratio is high

what if its low

A

this would represent more puts being traded with respect to calls, which in turn, means that the market participants are more bearish than bullish

A low put/call ratio would imply the opposite

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

SENTIMENT INDICATORS BASED ON OPTIONS AND VOLATILITY

VOLATILITY

A

We look at the VIX which is the implied volatility of the S&P 500 options

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

how can we use the VIX (or implied volatility)?

A

implied volatility measures are forward looking and not backward looking, we can use them to gauge where the market will be going in the future

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

when does High Volatility tend to occur

what about low

A

at periods of stress, emotion, uncertainty, fear and nervousness most often peaking at a panic bottom

Low Volatility tends to occur during market rises and market peaks when emotions are calm, content and relaxed

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

Generally, what does it mean when the VIX trades high?

what about low?

A

there is some sort of a sell off that occurs,

when it trades at a low level, the market tends to increase

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

when does the VIX tend to rise exponentially?

A

when the market comes under selling pressure

17
Q

POLLS

A

simply to ask the players if they are bearish or bullish.

Sampling problems do exist though.

Poll results if measured over a constant time can give some idea of the public mood

18
Q

why are Poll results contrary opinions?

A

because they express optimism at market tops and pessimism at market bottoms

19
Q

Polls

advisory opinions

A

Investor Intelligence reads approximately 120 investment advisory newsletter every week and determines the percentage of them that are bullish, bearish or expecting a correction

20
Q

Polls

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION of INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS (AAII)

A

Compiles a weekly poll from its 150 000 members on what they believe the stock market will do over the next 6 months

21
Q

Polls

CONSENSUS BULLISH SENTIMENT INDEX

A

Compiled from an extensive mix of both brokerage house analysts and independent advisory services, to create the Consensus Bullish Sentiment Index

covers a broad spectrum of approaches to the market, including the fundamental, technical, and cyclical.

They consider only opinions that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the trading public

22
Q

Polls

MARKET VANE

A

Polls 100 leading commodity trading advisors for their opinion of the futures markets

This data is then used to construct the Bullish Consensus statistics, which is published in Barron’s weekly

23
Q

Polls

THE SENTIX INDEX

A

comprehensive poll of German investors regarding their views on the German as well as the US stock and bond markets

They poll 3100 participants (of which 690 are institutional investors) on what their opinion is for different markets over the next month and next six months

24
Q

Polls

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

A

based on a representative sample of 5000 US households.

The survey is based on expectations of the US economy.

Like most other opinion polls, the survey has been a contrary indicator to the stock market

25
Q

OTHER MEASURES OF CONTRARY OPINION:

MUTUAL FUND CASH AS A PERCENTAGE OF ASSETS

A

Mutual fund cash holdings are contrary indicators for the stock market

There are many reasons for mutual funds to hold cash, but the bottom line is that high levels of cash usually occur at stock market bottoms

26
Q

OTHER MEASURES OF CONTRARY OPINION

MARGIN BALANCES

A

Margin debt should reflect what the uniformed investor is doing (as margin debt is usually comprised of individual investors taking on debt to speculate on the market)

measure has been proven not to be as useful as previously thought due to the ability to take positions with derivatives

27
Q

OTHER MEASURES OF CONTRARY OPINION

NASDAQ to NYSE VOLUME

A

A ratio of volume traded on the NASDAQ relative to the NYSE is a measure of speculation

28
Q

when does the volume traded on the NASDAQ usually increase relative to the NYSE?

A

Generally as enthusiasm for speculative stocks (which usually trade on the NASDAQ) increases

29
Q

when do we see the peak of the NASDAQ to NYSE VOLUME ratio

A

The peak in the market

30
Q

OTHER MEASURES OF CONTRARY OPINION

UNINFORMED SHORT SELLING

A

Generally short selling has been used a contrary indicator

we use the short interest ratio

31
Q

the short interest ratio

A

calculated on a monthly basis by taking the total amount of stocks sold short and dividing by the average volume for the month

32
Q

When percentage of short sales to total trades increases, what does this mean?

A

this indicates a bearish extreme and the market is likely to rise

33
Q

UNQUANTIFIABLE CONTRARY INDICATORS

MAGAZINE COVERS THEORY

A

The media covers the news with a strong bias. If the stock market is high and ready to decline, the media would be unlikely to report this point of view. Instead it would emphasize the current fact that the market has risen and is strong

34
Q

How is sentiment of Informed players measured?

INSIDERS

A

the ultimate informed players

No one knows their business, industry or company like an insider.

SEC regulations require that insiders must report their transactions within 2 days now, and these stats are published by the SEC

35
Q

How is sentiment of Informed players measured?

SELL/BUY Ratio

A

compiled by Vickers Stock Research Corporation, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group

takes into account the total number of insider buy and sell transactions for each company, the percentage change in insider holdings, the unanimity of the transactions within each company, reversals in transaction patterns and very large transactions

36
Q

SELL/BUY Ratio when it is bearish or bullish

A

Total # insider sales / Total # insider buys

if > than 2.25 = bearish
if < than 2.00 = bullish

37
Q

How is sentiment of Informed players measured?

LARGE BLOCKS

A

Tend to be transacted on behalf of professionals, or the informed players.

Large institutional clients are the ones who transact these blocks, and most often than not, whether they are buying or selling has a say in what will likely happen in the future to the stock.

The ‘smart’ money tends to be behind these trades