Lecture 11 - Part 1 - Psychological Research as a Process of Uncertainty Management

Question 1

What is uncertainty?

Answer 1

‘Uncertainty’ means that there are things in our research that we cannot be confident about.

Question 1

What is probabilistic determinism?

Answer 1

Probabilistic determinism means that there is some randomness in the things we study, there is almost always less than 100% probability in the relationships that we investigate.

Question 2

What is psychological research as a process of uncertainty management?

Answer 2

• Doing research in psychology involves attempts to confront the unknown.
• In this sense, it is about dealing with uncertainty.
• It may be helpful to think about two particular types of uncertainty: methodological and statistical.

Question 3

What are the two types of uncertainty?

Answer 3

1. Methodological – The way(s) that we collect our data
2. Statistical – What we do with those data

Question 4

What is methodological uncertainty?

Answer 4

Methodological uncertainty is related to confidence that our research design and procedures allow us to answer the research question.

Question 5

What are the methods to reduce methodological uncertainty?

Answer 5

• Choosing an appropriate method
• Controlling for extraneous variables (‘noise’ in the data)
• Eliminating confounds (alternative possible explanations)
• Controlling for threats to internal validity
• Using representative samples

Question 6

What is internal uncertainty produced by?

Answer 6

Lack of control

Question 7

What is external uncertainty produced by?

Answer 7

*Sampling error
*Naïve empiricism

Question 8

What is integrity uncertainty produced by?

Answer 8

*Questionable research practices and scientific fraud

Question 9

What is internal uncertainty reduced by?

Answer 9

Experimental control

Question 10

What is external uncertainty produced by?

Answer 10

• Appropriate sampling
• Theory development

Question 11

What is integrity uncertainty produced by?

Answer 11

Open science practices including preregistration

Question 12

What is statistical uncertainty?

Answer 12

• Design and data collection techniques do not help to minimize it.
• There are well-established methods for reducing it, though it is often difficult to achieve.
• This is why we do statistical analyses (in order to measure the uncertainty).

Question 13

What are the two types of statistical uncertainty?

Answer 13

• Descriptive uncertainty
• Inferential uncertainty

Question 14

What is descriptive uncertainty?

Answer 14

Not all participants provide exactly the same response(s)

Question 15

What is inferential uncertainty?

Answer 15

We may not be completely confident that the IV is the only thing that affects the DV

Question 16

What are the sources of descriptive uncertainty?

Answer 16

• Differences between
  
  • Variation in responses between individuals or groups
• Differences within
  
  • Variation in responses within individuals or groups (e.g., over time).
• Measurement error
  
  • Variation in responses due to inconsistent measurement

Question 17

How should uncertainty be managed?

Answer 17

• In practice, strategic decisions about the management of uncertainty always involve trade-offs and compromises.

Question 18

Is psychological research inferior as a result?

Answer 18

It is certainly true that psychological research involves different forms of uncertainty when compared with other sciences. However, managing uncertainty is what the practice of conducting any research is all about.

Question 19

Minimising Methodological Uncertainty and Quantifying Statistical Uncertainty - Is That All Psychological Research Should Strive For?

Answer 19

NO!
- There are many other forms of uncertainty that are relevant to psychological research.