Lecture 1 – Evidence and Judgment

Question 1

What two factors go into a decision?

Answer 1

Evidence and Judgment

Question 2

Define Evidence (for decisions)

Answer 2

The information we get/the information that we know

Question 3

Define Judgement (for decision)

Answer 3

From this evidence, we make a judgment of this evidence – this judgment relied on the quality of the evidence

Question 4

Define decisions

Answer 4

The judgment of this evidence may lead to a decision (does not always lead to a decision)

Question 5

What are the (3) factors that lead to evidence being probabilistic/variable? Define them

Answer 5

Source/type of evidence, Base rates (some events are more/less reliable due to how common/rare they are), utility (Some outcomes are more consequential than others).

Question 6

Base Rate fallacy/neglect (Tversky and Kahneman 1974)

Answer 6

When people ignore base rate information in favour of evidence despite this further evidence not being useful diagnostic information/objective evidence.

Question 7

Define Conjucntion Fallacy

Answer 7

When it is assumed that specifie conditions are more probable than a singular general one (despite it being mathematically impossible).

Question 7

Define Conjucntion Fallacy

Answer 7

When it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than the singular general one (despite it being mathematically impossible).

Question 8

Define Representative heuristic

Answer 8

Judging the likelihood that a particular instance comes from a particular category of things events based on how representative it is of that category

Question 9

Availability Heuristic

Answer 9

judgments of frequency and likelihood seem to be based on how readily instances or occurrences can be bought to mind