Lec 3 - Paradigms Flashcards
Overview of lecture
Looking at how Paradigms for DRR change over time amoung diff stakeholders, looking at the dimensions of resilience and an overview of vulnerability assessment methods
Types of disaster risk paradigm
Age - Paradigm - Main issues/activities
1) Pre-1950s - Engineering - top down engineering approach
• What causes hazards and how can we reduce consequences?
• Predict hazard frequency- magnitude; build protective structures; understand mechanics of infrastructure and components under hazard loading; develop building codes
2) 1950s-1970s - Behavioural paradigm (emphasis on usign social sciences too - links physical and social sciences for soft and hard engineering. Humans are at fault too)
• Why do hazards cause so much damage and how can changes in behaviour minimise consequences (E and V).
• Hazard prediction; early warning; planning controls in developed countries
3) 1980s-90s - Development paradigm (emphasis on developing places, previous paradigms failed to address increasing risk in 3rd world countries. Concept of vulnerability became very important - based on the PAR model which traces vulnerability from root causes)
• Why do developing countries suffer more disasters and what makes them socio-economially vulnerable?
• Recognise voluntary and involuntary risks; concepts of vulnerability, capacity and disasters in developing countries
• Noting how modernisation and tech transfers are inappropriate; self help and local approaches are better.
• Access to resources rather than existence of resoruces os emphasised
4) Current - Complex paradigm (draws together elements from all 3 previous paradigms)
• Recognises that humans are not just victims of hazards but contribute to the disaster process
• how can we sustainablly reduce risk? Looks to combine DRR with longer-term sustainable development agenda.
• Multi-hazard, multi-disciplinary risk management for local contexts, climate change, urbanisation and long-term
nb. the current complexity paradigm is still evolving; concepts of resilience paradigm emerging (look two flashcards ahead)
Four DRR challenges - look at Arup doc on slide for more details
1) Humanitarian - the finite resources and abilities of governments and humanitarian actors to effectively respond to disasters and assist recovery
2) Urban - the implications of rapid growth on development and infrastructure which is leading to increased vulnerability
3) Complexity - the dynamic nature of urban environments, and implications of cascading failures due to inter-relationships between infrast, institutions and ecosystems
4) Uncertainty - greater exposure to weather-related hazards and increased vulnerability arising from climate change which cannot accurately be forecast, and limitations in our ability to model complex systems
Emerging trend/recognition/paradigm of resilience
Different defns used:
• Engineering = concept of ‘bouncing back’ or returning to equilibrium
• Phychology = concepts of capacities, coping, problem-solving improved state
Evolving concept of disaster resilience:
• Resilience is not the opposite of vulnerability (although there are overlaps)
• More helpful to think of resilience as a process than an outcome i.e. dynamic. Therefore focus assessment of resilience on decision-making systems (process and intention) rather than on results e.g.
Outcome-orientated = resilience as land use, vs
Process-orientated = capacity to change land-use in response to risk
• Resilience seen now more than just bouncing back as individuals/societies learn from experiences, unlike ecosystems - concept of reflexivity.
• Think of it in terms of three pathways: Resistance, Persistence, Transformation
e.g. for facing the threat of community inundation:
-Resistance = hazard mitigation through reinforcing of sea wall
-Persistence = Diversification of risk management through risk transfer
- Transformation = A critical reappraisal of the local economy, closing (or radically altering) the factory, and community employment structure, so as to preserve and regrow the mangrove
Vulnerability assessment methods - need to look some up for floods specifically
Method- example - type
1) Direct Vulnerability mapping - expert estimation - qualitative
2) Heuristic or index-based methods - expert ranking of a priori infrastructure characteristics and damage potential - Qual.
3) Empirical analysis - Basic principle: ‘Past is key to future’. Statistical derivation of relationship between intensity and damage (vulnerability curves) - Quantitative approach
4) Analytical models - analysis of structures, FEA, modelling - quan.
Therefore the vulnerability assessment steps are?
1) quantify damage to buildings
2) relate damage to flood intensity
3) modelling total struc dmg, direct cost and risk
Learn that Capacities vs Vulnerabilities of communities table thing
What do Community Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (VCA) involve?
- Direct qual. hazard, vul. and capacity mapping
- Venn diagram questionnaires and surveys
- Timelines and seasonal calendars
More of this when looking at the ‘Engaging with communities’ lecture.
This was a quick overview of vulnerability assessment methods
