Lec 11- political violence, terrorism, forced migration Flashcards
definition of political violence
deployment of force by non-state actors (recall Weber) with the aim of achieving some political objective.
two basic forms of political violence
- revolution
- terrorism
revolution: separate from a coup-d’etat in that
- the state does not lead it
- the aim is not merely removing those in power but rather removing the entire regime
terrorism
too often conflated with Islamic terrorism (related to, but separate from, the misunderstanding of the term ‘jihad)
is violence against civilians to achieve a political goal
the graph records incidents not victims
terrorists may be
- political
- state-sponsored nonstate- actors
- pakistani-armed militants in kashmir - Nihilistic:
- incels, homophobes, and dime-store ‘jihadists’
the last get all the media attention, but they are least threatening to the state
forced migration
123 million people/ mostly refugees forced to flee during 2010-mid2024
global distribution of refugees (UNHCR data)
86% are in developing countries
73% are hosted in neighbouring countries
35 million are under 18
39% are hosted in 5 countries
1. Turkey
2. Colombia
3. Uganda
4. Pakistan
5. Germany
68% originate from 5 countries
1. Syrian Arab Republic
2. Venezuela
3. Afghanistan
4. South Sudan
5. Myanmar
drivers of flight
- persecution
- mynamar (burma) persecution of the muslim rohingya is a near perfect example of persecution-drive refugee flight - Economic collapse
- venezuela - War (BIGGEST DRIVER)
- Afghanistan, Syria
makes ethnic cleansing and genocide possible
in the last three cases, institutions were a powerful intervening variable: they made the economic collapse and war that drove mass refugee flows far more likely
institutions and economic collapse in Venezuela
1999: Hugo Chavez came to power
2005: embraced 21st century socialism
used oil exports to buy good and sell cheaply domestically along with massive social spending. hit the wall in 2014
2013: Nocholas Maduro became president
- used price controls which resulted in bankruptcies, currency controls, the seizure of companies and land, and the creation of communes for food production
- collapse of production of goods and food, spiralling inflation, massive black market, and food shortages
2014&2017: sanctions in response to crackdowns on protests made it worse
- crime and violence exploded, hunger spread.
unfortunate outcome on venezuela
end of 2017: double-digit inflation became hyperinflation
- as price of food skyrocketed, 93% of Venezuelans could not afford it.
2017: average Venezuelan lost 24 pounds
% of households in poverty fell from 53%-29% (during the oil price boom) then increased to 82% in 2015
partial lifting of price controls and informal dollarization of the economy, $3.5 billion in remittances situation, and Chinese, Russian, and Turkish aid prevented total economic collapse
5 million people, or 15% of the total population fled the country
institutional account of the Venezuela conflict
Chavez’s rise to power dependent on the complete collapse of the party system in the 1990s
from 1973 (start of the oil boom) to the 1990s, a Christian Democratic party dominated politics
then corruption and excessive ideological convergence led to massive voter desertion, from which Chavez benefited.
war in syria
until the 1970s a quintessentially weak state
emerged from the Ottoman empire, french mandate
suffered multiple coups
1958-1962: Union with Egypt in which Syria was very much the junior partner
Pinnacle of Nasserism: socialist, secularist, pan-Arab view of the middle east. vision died in the sands of the Sinai in 1967 during the 6 day war
Modern Syrian history began in 1963 and is integrally linked with Ba’athism
Ba’athism
nationalist, pan arabist, socialist and scularist
appealed in Syria to religous minorities (Alawites), rural population, and have-nots (Alawites believed in transubstantiated wine alchohol consumption)
arrayed itself against the urban Sunni elite that dominated commerce
came to power in both Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and post-1963 Syria
Ba’athist Power in Syria
1963 coup: brought Ba’thists to power; a 20 member, 12 Ba’athists, and 8 Nasserites. council governed the country. Amin al-Hafiz became president
1966: Intra-Ba’athist coup brought strongman Salah Jadid to power. Hafez Al-Assad became Defence minister
1970: Hafez Al-Assad launded a coup and ruled until his death in 2000
power was personalized
hafez was Alwaite, making up 11% of a country that is 74% Sunni Muslim and 10% christian, 2% Shite, and 9% Kurds
power was based on highly concentrated executive with Alawites occupying all the key positions of power (60% of the weak Cabinet was Sunni)
military ensured dominance. Al-Assad ensured that his religion and tribe were represented but not dominant in the officer corps; he put all officers through a Ba’athist education and tried to give all classes, religions, and ethnicites representation in the military
he increased its size from 87000 active members to 316000 and maintained a bloated, if aging, air force
the military remained loyal when Hafez’s brother attempted a coup in 1984 and slaughtered 25,000 Sunni civilians in Hama during an uprising
backed up by brutal intelligence agencies, reporting directly to the president
THEY RULED OVER A COUNTRY IN WHICH THE MAJORITY WAS OF A DIFFERENT RELIGION, TRIBE, AND CLASS
Arab Spring
december 17, 2020: 26 year old Mohammed Bouazizi’s set himself on fire in protest of unequal wages
vast protests occured across the country and within a month of Mohammed’s self-immolation, the Tunisian dictator resigned and fled to Saudi
the protests quickly spread to Cairo, where tens of thousands filled Tahrir Square on Jan 25. the egyptian military turned on one of their own
after egypt, the protests spread to libya, yemen, and demonstrations brought together everyone
arab spring = revolution
syria and arab spring
early march 2011, a group of syrian boys all around fifteen spray painted anti regime grafitti on walls in Der’a
Der’a’s governor, a cousin of president Bashar al-Assad had the boys arrested and extracted confessions through torture
elders intervened
the governor replied with extreme disrespect and protests ensued
Bashar al-Assad sealed off Der’a and Syrian security forces responded with beatings and live ammunition
the 2006-2010 drought, exacerbated by over a half-century of poor water management led 1.2-1.5 million people to migrate smaller cities
by 2010, up to 20% of the syrian population lived in rural-to-urban migration slums
the cities and towns’ swelled populations made the protests larger and more febrile
AS SYRIA DESCENDED INTO CIVIL WAR, AND AS THE REGIME BOMBED ITS CITIES AND MILITIAS ROAMED THEIR STREETS, A MASSIVE AND SUDDEN FLIGHT OF MILLIONS OF REFUGEES ENSUED
syrian redugees
728,000 left by the end of 2011
by 2013, 4 million internationally displaced people, 2.2 million fled
2014: Syrians were the largest refugee population in the world
Institutional Account of Syrian Civil War
until 2024, frequent predictions of al-Assad’s fall proved wrong. why? because:
al-Assad’s minority status, the highly concentrated power, and his brutality made civil war possible
but: his control of the military and their loyalty ensured + Iranian and Russian aid its medium-term failure and allowed him to cling to power for a decade
the result was a decade long civil war where 6.8 million refugees/asylum seekers and 6.7 IDPS
so why did Al-Assad Fall?
- russia was weakened and distracted by its invasion of Ukraine
- iran was weakened by israeli attacks on its proxy, Hezbollah
- Turkey which had trained and supported anti-Assad supporters since civil war began, increased arms shipments, above all drone, to jihadist resistance groups.
institutions and invasion: Afghanistan
Kabul: the monarchy managed to maintain power by
1. playing the great powers off each other
2. cultivating a fusion of afghan nationalism and Islam
3. declaring jihad to repel foreign invaders in the Anglo-Afghan wars
under the best of circumstances, central institutions were weak so Kabul’s hold over the provinces was tenuous; tribal identities were strong; and religion was one of the few uniting attachments.
when that balance was disrupted in 1978 and 1979 the institutions collapsed
rule of Mohammed Zahir Shah (1933-1973)
was the most stable in Afghan history
stayed neutral in WW2
launched a gentle modernization programme starting in Kabul and spreading outwards
he gradually sidelined the clerics and introduced changes that respected the country’s sunni islam
so unlike Ataturk or Rezah Shah, there was no headscarf ban; rather, women in the royal family and wives of high government ministers appeared unveiled.
lambskin and cotton exports and foregin aid led to modest economic growth
1964-1978 Afghanistan (where shit hit the fan)
1964-1973: Zahir Shah sacked PM Daoud Khan and established a limited parliamentary democracy
1973: Daoud launched a coup and abolished the monarchy
- he tried to free himself from the need of any support from the provinces whihc was a very bad idea
- because as the regime’s policy of expanding education while hiring graduates as civil servants reached an end, disaffected students from Kabul University turned to political radicalism
at the same time, the Sharia Law Faculty became a hotbed of Islamism under Rabbani who later became a warlord
in 1978: Dauod launched a pre-emptive strike against the people’s democratic party of afghanistan and seized its power
Nur Muhammad Taraki (president) and Hafizullah Amin (PM)
murdered Daoud and launched a wave of terror
made a rush for modernization: equal rights and education for women, forced land redistribution requiring state intrusion into every corner of the country, and an assult on religion.
launched a land redistribution program in a country where land ownership was much more equal than Pakistan or Iran
by 1979: 24 out of 28 provinces were in open rebellion
Taraki pleads for a soviet invasion; Amin has him arrested and strangled
December 25, 1979: the soviets invade, kill Amin, and install a puppet government
with the ever weak institutions liking Kabul tot he provinces destroyed, the countryside rebelled
mass forced migration
islamabad organized the resistance fighters into 7 parties: 4 islamists, 3 traditional
CIA and Saudi funding went through Pakistan; vast quantities of arms were smuggled through Karachi
Soviets’ goal was to drive Afghans into the cities or out of the country
by the end of the 1980s, 1.5-2 million Afghans has been killed and 6.2 million fled the country
how the taliban came to be
refugees fled mostly to iran or pakistan
many incorporated into the lower end of the labor market
gulf money allowed the most religiously conservative mujahideen (fighters for islam) in refugee camps
filled with young men traumatized by war.
IMPORTANT POINT: Afghan refugee camps would prove become recruiting stations for religious extremists bent on further war
Afghans born between 1970 and 1983 knew nothing but war and many spent all their lives in refugee camps
if they recieved any education it was in Pakistani madrasses established along the border with Afghanistan with Gulf money
there were barely any literate people and often misunderstood the basics of Islamic law
unlike the older mujahideen in the camps, those born before 1960 had no memory of life before the conflict and they knew no women, mothers or lovers. thus, their teachers DEMONIZED women as a dangerous temptation and a distraction from service to Allah
concluding points
in all three cases institutional configurations made mass refugee flows more likely
- Venezuela: collapse of the party systems
- Syria: concentrated executive power, brutal security services, and a powerful and local military in Syria
- Weak, Kabul-based governance in Afghanistan
