L9 Flashcards

1
Q

PPP tries to explain

A

how inflation effects exch

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2
Q

PPP model

A

Relies on law of one price- assest should sell at same price after taking exch into consid

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3
Q

PPP hold

A

Doesnt in ST- large persistent deviations
holds in LT

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4
Q

Inflation in PPP

A

= (P1-Po)/Po

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5
Q

PPP- internal and external PP

A

should equal each other

1/Poa = 1/SoPPP X 1/Pob
or
SoPPP= Poa/Pob

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6
Q

Internal PP

A

1/Poa= 1/Price level country A current period

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7
Q

External PP in Currency A

A

1/ SoPPP X 1/Pob = 1/current spot exch predicted by PPP x 1/ Price level country B

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8
Q

What if SoPPP doesnt equal Poa/ Pob

A

Abtrirage opp

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9
Q

PPP curr predictions

A

Overvalued- should deprecate
Undervalued- Should aprreciate

variations due to
* tariffs and quotas
* Trans cost
* Non competitive Market

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10
Q

Overvaluation of Curr1 means undervaluation of Curr2

A

Means External PP of Cur1 > Internal PP
Curr2 Internal PP> External PP

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11
Q

Why Absolute PPP doesnt hold

A

Changes in relative Prices
No substitutes for traded foods
Non traded goods- Housing
changes in BOP

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12
Q

Relative PPP

A

used as market is imperfect, prcies of same baskest of products in diff countries wont be the same
the rate should be similar- % change in exch should be roughly equal to the diff in inflat between 2 countries

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13
Q

% change PPP exchange

A

ePPP= (S1PPP-SoPPP)/SoPPP

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14
Q

Inflation 2 countries

A

A= (P1/Po) -1
B is the same
Hence 1+ePPP = (1+InflatA)/(1+Inflat B)
ePPP roughly equals The diff in inflation rates

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15
Q

RPPP

A

Tries to predicted the % change in exch from the diff of Inflation as:
* Inflation lowers PP of money= inflat diff across countries should change nominal exchange rate to compensate

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16
Q

Sum of PPP

A

Higher Inflation= Higher imports, lower exports= Local curr deprecation
vice versa

17
Q

IFE- international Fisher Effect

A

Diff in nominal I between countries can be used to predict changes in exch
Hence: -Fisher effect
When Inflat ^, central banks should rise I

18
Q

Real Return

A

R= Inflation - I
This can be expressed in terms of PP

19
Q

If IFE holds

A

E(ePPP)= ( Id- If)
countries with high inflation should have high nominal I

20
Q

IFE empirical evidence

A

doesnt support in ST
LT suggests validity

21
Q

Implication of IFE

A

Cur with High I will have high Inflat. The high Inflat will cause a deprec cause of the PPP effect
Hence
* foreign investors are adversely effected by high inflat if they try to cap on high I

22
Q

Limitations of IFE

A

relies on fisher and PPP effect
*Fisher Limit- diff between nominal I and actual Inflat is not consistnet
*PPP limit- other country features besides Inflat can effect Exch movement

23
Q

Fisher effect

A

Nominal I should reflect Inflat expectations

24
Q

Diff between IRP PPP IFE- IRP

A

IRP- focus on why FWD differes from spotand on degree of diff that should exist. relates to specific point in time

25
Q

Diff between IRP PPP IFE- PPP

A

PPP and IFE focus on how cur spot will change overtime
PPP suggests that spot will change in accord with Inflat

26
Q

Diff between IRP PPP IFE- IFE

A

PPP and IFE focus on how cur spot will change overtime
IFE suggests that it will change in accord with I diff

27
Q

how are PPP and IFE related

A

Becauswe expected Inflat diff influences Nominal I between 2 Countries