L3 (week 10) - Decision making & reasoning Flashcards
What does the classical decision making model theorize?
What two things do we combine to develop our responses? L and R
That we combine logic and rationality to develop a final solution or response.
What is normative decision theory?
What S… we do?
Theory about how things should be done/what ought to be done.
What is descriptive decision theory?
What D… we do?
A real-life account of how the world is.
What are Heuristics?
A) a judgemental shortcut
B) a grammatical error that impacts judgement
C) The smallest unit of speech sound
D) A shortcut that allows us to process sound quicker
A judgemental shortcut that generally gets us where we need to go but occassionally sends us off course.
What are the 5 main features of Heuristic thinking?
Speed? conscious or unconscious? Effortful or automatic? What kind of decisions? reliable or error prone?
Fast, Unconscious, automatic, everyday decisions and error prone.
What are the 5 main features of rational thinking?
Speed? conscious or unconscious? Effortful or automatic? What kind of decisions? reliable or error prone?
Slow, Conscious, effortful, complex decisions and reliable.
What are the two main researchers studying Heuristics?
D.K & A.T
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
What is availability heuristic?
Percieved risk of air travel after a plane crash.
How easily relevent examples/instances come to mind on the topic at hand. We estimate things based on the ease at which these things come to mind. Based on frequency of the event occuring OR how recent the event was.
What is representativeness heuristic?
category
Used to determine how likely an event/thing fits into a specific category by considering how typical the event/thing is of the category. People tend to ignore base rate information.
what is the base rate?
the chance of something
The statistical chances of an event occurring/a statement being true.
What is Conjunction Fallacy?
a false assumption
The incorrect assumption that its more likely for two events to occur together than each of the events to occur alone.
e.g. John wears glasses, this information is more readily associated with the idea that John also reads a lot of books, rather than John does extreme sports. Culturally we associate people who wear glasses with reading and intellectual pursuits. But making this assumption is a fallacy.
What did Kahneman & Tversky determine in 1973 with “the Linda problem”?
Feminism study, conjunction rule
A base rate/representativeness heuristic study that showed that people ignore the fact that two events are more likely to occur seperately than together due to preconceived notions/judgements.
What is the anchor and adjust heuristic?
When an estimated initial value is presented with the intention of a (usually lower) more reasonable adjusted value being their final estimate.
Think about people selling their car on facebook marketplace. Do people state a reasonable asking price or go higher than they think it’s worth with the intention of being ‘knocked down’ to their expected asking price?
What did the 1987 anchor and adjust heuristic study by Northcraft and Neale find?
real estate
That the given asking price of the same house effected the estimated value made by participants with a noticable increase of 11-14%. This supported the anchor and adjust heuristic.
What is the recognition heuristic?
When we recognise something in the event or scenario so we choose based on this.
