Key Rule 4 Flashcards
Pros/Cons public comps
- based on real data as opposed to future assumptions
- May not be true comparables
- less accurate for thinly traded stocks or volatile companies
Pros/Cons Precedent Transactions
- based on what real companies have actually paid for other companies
- data can be spotty, especially for private comp acquisitions
- there may not be truly comparable transactions
Pros/Cons DCF analysis
- not as subject to market fluctuations
- theoretically sound since its based on ability to generate cash flow
- subject to far in future assumptions
- less useful for fast-growing/ unpredictable companies
Pros/Cons Liquidation Valuation
- ignores noise in the market and determines value based on assets and liabilities
- not useful for most healthy companies as tends to produce extremely low values
Pros/Cons M&A premiums analysis
- Same issues as with PT
- also can’t use acquisition of private comps for this as premiums only apply to public companies with stock prices
Pros/Cons future share price analysis
- good as it tells you how much company may be worth
- but depends on assumptions
Pros/Cons sum of parts
- more accurately values diversified, conglomerate-type companies
- bad as you often lack the appropriate data for each division
Pros/Cons LBO analysis
- good as it sets a floor on valuation by determining the min amount a PE firm could pay to achieve its returns
- gives a relatively low floor rather than a wide range of values
Precedent Transactions vs. Public Comps:
Transactions tend to be higher due to the control premium, i.e. the premium the buyer pays to acquire the seller
Discounted Cash Flow conclusions
Hard, tends to be the most variable due to its dependence on future assumptions
Liquidation valuation conclusion
99& of the time will produce lowest numbers as companies are significantly worth more than what their BS suggests
Sum of the parts conclusion
If company is truly worth more in ‘parts’ then this one will tend to produce higher values than relative valuation method
LBO analysis conclusion
Tends to produce lower values, usually lower than DCF or relative valuation, but once again it’s dependent on assumptions
Link between metrics and multiples
Generally, there’s a correlation between growth rates and relevant multiples, and sometimes also between margins and multiples:
• All else being equal, a company with higher revenue growth will also have higher revenue multiples than companies not growing as quickly.
• Similarly, a company with higher EBITDA growth tends to have higher EBITDA multiples than companies not growing as quickly
BUT:
- just general rules, valuations impacted by everything
- basic math can ask so impact multiples, especially when cpmaones have very margins
EV/Revenue and P/E multiples taken least serious because
- Company should be valued on profits not sales
- P/E is subject to non-cash and non-recurring charges, like different tax rates, company’s capital structure and other issues