Key koncepts Flashcards
Demographic Transition
A developmental process in 4 stages (classic model)
In the process the population grows because fertility declines at a lower rate than (especially child) mortality
Demographic Dividend
Epidemiologic Transition
A transition where the life expectancy at birth increases because the country develops
Causes of death vary with a country’s development stage → in the transition you go from epidemics and infectious diseases at early stage of development (that hit children hard) to man-made diseases in later stages of development (that mostly hit old people)
What happens in the 5th and 6th stages of the demographic transition in high income countries?
- stage: Fertility drops below replacement levels
- stage: Rebound of fertility?
Since the 1980s governments have invested more in childcare facilities → becomes easier for women to have both job and family
E.g. France and the Nordic countries
Why has there been different lengths of the demographic transition between countries?
Europe: Took around 200 years to end the demographic transition (ca. 1740-1940)
Today countries can go through the transition quicker, because there are vaccines, contraceptives etc. available already.
E.g. Mexico, China (50 years). It is easier both to lower the mortality and fertility.
How far along is the demographic transition worldwide?
Still in a period of growth (where birth rates are higher than death rates).
The population is expected to grow until 2100 (11 billion estimated) and then start to decline back to around 8 billion, since many countries fertility levels will drop til below replacement levels.
Demographic momentum
Tendency where populations continue to grow after fertility have declined, because of the populations young age distribution (a lot of people about to enter childbearing age)
What is the demographic bonus?
Has to do with the age structure of the population → population aging
Particular in high income countries, there is a big increase in +65 population
What are the consequences of population aging/the demographic bonus?
Can affect the old-age-dependency ratio:
Definition: How many people at working age finance an elderly dependent person.
In 1930 5 people of working age had to finance 1 elderly dependent person → ratio of 20%
In 1980: A doubling of the ratio in 1980. 5 working people have to finance 2 elderly people → rate of 40%.
What affects population aging today?
- Below replacement fertility (most important factor)
- Increasing life expectancy
- Aging of the baby boomers cohort (structural effect → this very big cohort is getting old right now).
What could be policy responses to population aging?
Changing retirement policies
- Increasing the age of retirement?
- Lower pension payments
- Capital-based system (only the poor get retirement)
Increasing fertility
Increasing immigration: To get more young people to finance the old
