Fertility Flashcards
Total fertility rate
A period measure - tells you how many children the average woman in this country has in a given year.
In a given year you look at the fertility outcome (how many children do they have) among all women in “child bearing age” (15-49) and divide by the number of women in child bearing age
Replacement level of fertility
The total fertility rate that is needed if population levels have to stay the same
Level: 2.1 children
Correlation between GDP and fertility across the globe
Negative correlation –> the higher the GDP, the lower fertility
What is the fertility rates in many African countries and why?
Very high fertility rates: 5-7 children
Why?
- Agricultural society: needs children to help
- Religious beliefs
- Access to contraception
- High child mortality: you have more children, because the risk of them dying is bigger
- Cultural attitudes: women are mothers and housekeepers
- Age at marriage: people marry young → higher rates of sexual intercourses
Is there a correlation between GDP and fertility across countries in Europe?
No - no clear tendency, when you reach this level of development/GDP.
E.g. the Nordic countries are some of the richest, and still have high fertility.
What is the positive income effect?
Increased income increases fertility
Why?
The direct costs of children are easier to bear when income grows
E.g. food, clothes, education.
What is the negative substitution effect?
Increased income decreases fertility (due to higher indirect costs)
Why?
The indirect costs of children rises when income grows
The higher the income, the higher implicit loss in income when going off the labor market to have children. In the absence of child care facilities women therefore substitute childbearing against labour market participation
Especially for high educated women
What is the reversed positive income effect?
Instead of increased income leading to increased fertility, a decrease in income can also lead to a decrease in fertility
Why?
- Because you are afraid you can not bear the direct cost of having children right now.
What can increase fertility?
Better childcare facilities → high childcare coverage (EU goal is 30%)
Better economic conditions of having children - Paid maternity leave - So that you don’t need to postpone having children due to economic reasons
More progressive cultural norms → freedom to create your family in your own way - Children outside of marriage - Single-parenting - Gay-parenting
Shorter working hours
What is the impact of fertility on economic growth according to the exogenous growth theory?
A negative correlation between increased fertility and growth.
Underlying assumption: Fixed amount of resources (exogenously given)
Poverty trap:
- Populationen øges og den øges mere end de økonomiske ressourcer kan håndtere.
- Hvis populationen vokser mere end GDP pr. capita vokser, så er konsekvensen at GDP pr. capita falder.
Solow growth model: Decreasing marginal utility of physical growth/labor
- Everytime you increase L (labor) by 1, the increase in GDP will be less than 1 → falling GDP pr. capita
What is the impact of fertility on economic growth according to the endogenous growth theory?
Postive correlation: Increases in fertility increases growth
Focus on human capital –> which has increasing marginal utility.
Productivity is increased when more people come→ increase in talent pool → we can all do, what we are good at
If human capital (H) increases by 1, then GDP will increase by more than 1