Judgment Under Uncertainty Tversky Highlights

Question 1

Three heretics?

Answer 1

1. Representativesness
2. Availability
3. Anchoring and Adjustments

Question 2

Six parts of Representativeness?

Answer 2

1. Prior probability
2. Insensitivity to sample size
3. Misconception of chance
4. Insensitivity to predictability
5. Validity Illusion
6. Misconceptions of regression

Question 3

What is Prior probability?

Answer 3

A part of Representativeness
People dont factor base rate probability
Told description example

Question 4

What is Insensitivity to sample size?

Answer 4

A part of Representativeness

larger samples closer represent trends and less likely to stray from the mean

Question 5

What is Misconception of chance?

Answer 5

A part of Representativeness
People expect small samples to represent whole population
Gambler fallacy - something is due

Question 6

What is Insensitivity to predictability?

Answer 6

A part of Representativeness
people predict without considering the accuracy of evidence
If something cant be predicted then it shouldnt

Question 7

What is the Validity Illusion?

Answer 7

A part of Representativeness
People feel validity if they select an output and see a link even if its outdated
Confidence is redundant variables

Question 8

What is Misconceptions of regression?

Answer 8

A part of Representativeness
People tend toward the mean
People dont expect regression where they should and invent reasons when they do see it
Fighter pilots

Question 9

What is Representativeness

Answer 9

People wrongly link probability and similarity, this doesnt work as they have different influences

Question 10

What is Availability?

Answer 10

Availability is thinking things you know of and basing decision off that without considering the unknown

Question 11

Fours parts of Availability?

Answer 11

1. Bias due to Retrieveability
2. Bias due to effectiveness of search
3. Bias due to Imagination
4. Illusionary Correlation

Question 12

What is Bias due to Retrieveability?

Answer 12

Part of Availability
Based off ease of retrieval
New memories tend to dominate old memories

Question 13

What is Bias due to effectiveness of search?

Answer 13

Part of Availability
People make decisions based off the ease of the search for information
‘R’ example

Question 14

What is Bias due to Imagination?

Answer 14

Part of Availability
Ease of imagining isn’t equal to the actual frequency
People imagine outcomes but don’t consider the likelihood
Conversely risk is underestimated if not imagined

Question 15

What is Illusionary Correlation?

Answer 15

Part of Availability
People draw links between things that shouldnt be linked together
Eye drawing example

Question 16

What is Adjustment and Anchoring?

Answer 16

Not making enough of an adjustment from an initual guess

Question 17

Two parts of Adjustment and Anchoring?

Answer 17

1. Insufficient Adjustment

2. Anchoring in subjective probabilities

Question 18

What is Insufficient Adjustment?

Answer 18

Part of Adjustment and Anchoring

Under adjustment can lead to inaccuracies

Question 19

What is Anchoring in subjective probabilities?

Answer 19

Part of Adjustment and Anchoring

Its hard to make a good initial guess when you’re imagining the distribution to anchor a guess in