Chapter 8 Sawyer Highlights Flashcards
Lets begin with chapter 8
8 Contributors to risk judement
- Roles different
- Exposure some people might be more exposed
- Shock, people react to shock not frequency
- Trust in mangers
- Forced or volunteered to accept risk
- Recovery, can they recover quickly
- Protection, people aren’t protected by protection
- Fairness, unequal plans aren’t likely to be accepted
Name the Risk Analysis Tool?
RASP
How does RASP work?
Breaks model into zones
Defenses each have a own probability of failiure
Why is RASP good?
Can include:
Internal forces: management changes
External Forces: climate change, demographic changes
Three forms of uncertainty?
Natural variability
Knowledge uncertainty
Decision uncertainty|
Two types of uncertainty?
Severe uncertainty
Routine Uncertainty
What is severe uncertainty?
uncertainty of climate change or socioeconomics
Name the four ways to deal with uncertainty
- Deliberate conservatism
- Range of estimates
- Probability distribution of uncertainty
- Comprehensive uncertainty analysis
What is Deliberate conservatism?
A way to deal with uncertainty - worst case scenario
simple
Cant order contribution to risk
Cant base investment off
What is Range of estimates?
A way to deal with uncertainty - 5% - 95%
What is a Comprehensive uncertainty analysis?
A way to deal with uncertainty - Captures the uncertainty in the structure of the analysis
Two method for doing a sensitivity analysis?
- One-by-one
2. Simulation approach
What is the simulation approach for sensitivity?
Uncertainty as a probability distribution, using Monte Carlo
Three methods for decision making?
- Robust satisficing
- Sensitivity analysis
- Info Gap
What is Robust satisficing?
A decision making method - Being adaptable, good in many futures
What is Sensitivity analysis as a decision making method?
Finding the uncertainties and sensitivities in a solution and their impacts
What is Info Gap?
A decision making method - Using a progress sensitivity
Three methods for evaluating Flexibility and Adaptability?
- Decision trees
- Auto optimization
- Real option analysis
What are decision trees
A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability
Good long term planning
Can analyse the whole life cycle
Finds actions to take now and one that can be delayed
What is auto-optimization
A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability
Good when decision trees become to large
Can consider multiple objectives using one by on optimisation
Still needs hooman judgment
What is Real option analysis
A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability
Way of estimating the cost of having a option open in the future
Five step to have a consistent process
- Create strats
- Benefits against nothing
- Find cheapest based on BCR
- Compare to second cheapest
- If iBCR is big, use second and so on
Notes of Consistence process?
Links efficiency and societal preferences
Overridden by legal needs
What is Defined safety Standards?
A framework for decision making
Minimum protection is defined in advance
Being challenged
Two frameworks for decision making?
- Consistent process
2. Defined Safety Standard
