Chapter 8 Sawyer Highlights

Question 1

8 Contributors to risk judement

Answer 1

1. Roles different
2. Exposure some people might be more exposed
3. Shock, people react to shock not frequency
4. Trust in mangers
5. Forced or volunteered to accept risk
6. Recovery, can they recover quickly
7. Protection, people aren’t protected by protection
8. Fairness, unequal plans aren’t likely to be accepted

Question 2

Name the Risk Analysis Tool?

Answer 2

RASP

Question 3

How does RASP work?

Answer 3

Breaks model into zones

Defenses each have a own probability of failiure

Question 4

Why is RASP good?

Answer 4

Can include:
Internal forces: management changes
External Forces: climate change, demographic changes

Question 5

Three forms of uncertainty?

Answer 5

Natural variability
Knowledge uncertainty
Decision uncertainty|

Question 6

Two types of uncertainty?

Answer 6

Severe uncertainty

Routine Uncertainty

Question 7

What is severe uncertainty?

Answer 7

uncertainty of climate change or socioeconomics

Question 8

Name the four ways to deal with uncertainty

Answer 8

1. Deliberate conservatism
2. Range of estimates
3. Probability distribution of uncertainty
4. Comprehensive uncertainty analysis

Question 9

What is Deliberate conservatism?

Answer 9

A way to deal with uncertainty - worst case scenario
simple
Cant order contribution to risk
Cant base investment off

Question 10

What is Range of estimates?

Answer 10

A way to deal with uncertainty - 5% - 95%

Question 11

What is a Comprehensive uncertainty analysis?

Answer 11

A way to deal with uncertainty - Captures the uncertainty in the structure of the analysis

Question 12

Two method for doing a sensitivity analysis?

Answer 12

1. One-by-one

2. Simulation approach

Question 13

What is the simulation approach for sensitivity?

Answer 13

Uncertainty as a probability distribution, using Monte Carlo

Question 14

Three methods for decision making?

Answer 14

1. Robust satisficing
2. Sensitivity analysis
3. Info Gap

Question 15

What is Robust satisficing?

Answer 15

A decision making method - Being adaptable, good in many futures

Question 16

What is Sensitivity analysis as a decision making method?

Answer 16

Finding the uncertainties and sensitivities in a solution and their impacts

Question 17

What is Info Gap?

Answer 17

A decision making method - Using a progress sensitivity

Question 18

Three methods for evaluating Flexibility and Adaptability?

Answer 18

1. Decision trees
2. Auto optimization
3. Real option analysis

Question 19

What are decision trees

Answer 19

A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability
Good long term planning
Can analyse the whole life cycle
Finds actions to take now and one that can be delayed

Question 20

What is auto-optimization

Answer 20

A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability
Good when decision trees become to large
Can consider multiple objectives using one by on optimisation
Still needs hooman judgment

Question 21

What is Real option analysis

Answer 21

A way of evaluating flexibility and adaptability

Way of estimating the cost of having a option open in the future

Question 22

Five step to have a consistent process

Answer 22

1. Create strats
2. Benefits against nothing
3. Find cheapest based on BCR
4. Compare to second cheapest
5. If iBCR is big, use second and so on

Question 23

Notes of Consistence process?

Answer 23

Links efficiency and societal preferences

Overridden by legal needs

Question 24

What is Defined safety Standards?

Answer 24

A framework for decision making
Minimum protection is defined in advance
Being challenged

Question 25

Two frameworks for decision making?

Answer 25

1. Consistent process

2. Defined Safety Standard