Judgement, Decisions, and Reasoning

Question 1

What is reasoning

Answer 1

The process of drawing conclusions.

Cognitive process of starting with information and coming to conclusions that go beyond that information.

Question 2

Deductive reasoning

Answer 2

Sequence of statements called syllogisms, used to reach a logical conclusion.

Question 3

Inductive reasoning

Answer 3

Arrive at conclusions that are probably true.
Premises are based on observations and we generalise from these cases to more general conclusions with varying degrees of certainty.

Question 4

Syllogism

Answer 4

Logical argument in which we deduce a conclusion on the basis of two other statements (premises).
Categorical and conditional syllogisms.

Question 5

Categorical syllogisms

Answer 5

Describe a relationship using the words all, no or some.
Premise 1: all cog students are enrolled at UC
Premise 2: all students are UC have an id number
Conclusion: all cog students have an id number
Valid when the conclusion follows logically from two valid premises.

Question 6

Validity

Answer 6

A syllogism is valid when the form of the syllogism indicates it’s conclusion follows logically from its two premises.
Not necessarily true.

Question 7

Invalid syllogisms

Answer 7

Invalid when conclusion does not follow logically from two valid premises.
All of the students are tired. (All A are B)
Some tired people are irritable. (Some C are D)
Some of the students are irritable. (Some A are D)

Question 8

Belief bias

Answer 8

The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it’s conclusion is believable.

Question 9

Mental model

Answer 9

A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.

Question 10

Mental model approach

Answer 10

Create a model of a situation.
Generate tentative conclusions about model.
Look for exceptions to falsify model.
Determine validity of syllogism.

Question 11

Conditional syllogisms

Answer 11

Have 2 premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogisms, but the first premise has the form ‘If… then’.
Antecedent: the ‘if’ term (often called the ‘p’ term)
Consequent: the ‘then’ term (often called the ‘q’ term)
(See pg 391)

Question 12

Syllogism 1: modus ponens

Affirming the antecedent

Answer 12

If I studied, I’ll get a good grade. 
I studied. 
Therefore, I’ll get a good grade. 
Second premise: p, conclusion: therefore, q. 
Valid: yes.

Question 13

Syllogism 2: modus tollens

Denying the consequent

Answer 13

If I studied, then I’ll get a good grade.
I didn’t get a good grade.
Therefore, I didn’t study.
Second premise: not q, conclusion: therefore, not p.
Valid: yes.

Question 14

Syllogism 3

Affirming the consequence

Answer 14

If I studied, I’ll get a good grade. 
I got a good grade. 
Therefore, I studied. 
Second premise: q, conclusion: therefore, p. 
Valid: no.

Question 15

Syllogism 4

Denying the antecedent

Answer 15

If I studied, then I’ll get a good grade.
I didn’t study.
Therefore, I didn’t get a good grade.
Second premise: not q, conclusion: therefore, not q.
Valid: no.

Question 16

Atmosphere effect

Answer 16

Words all, some, no create a mood or atmosphere that affects judgements to a conclusion.

Question 17

Falsification principle

Answer 17

To test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule (rather than satisfy it).
Trying to break the rule to prove it’s correct. If you can break it, then the rule must be true.
Watson’s four-card problem.

Question 18

Permission scheme

Answer 18

States that if a person satisfies a specific condition (being of legal drinking age), then they get to carry out an action (being served alcohol).

Question 19

Evolutionary perspective on cognition

Answer 19

We can trace many properties of our minds to the evolutionary principle of natural selection.

Question 20

Social-exchange theory

Answer 20

States that an important aspect of human behaviour is the ability for two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial to both people.
Problems arise when someone cheats.
So detecting cheating has become part of the brain’s cognitive make up to better chances of survival.

Question 21

What affects strength of an inductive argument?

Answer 21

Representativeness of observations (how well do the observations about a particular category represent all the members of that category?)
Number of observations (more observations, more likely to be correct)
Quality of the evidence (stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions).

Question 22

Why use inductive reasoning?

Answer 22

Science: for hypothesise and general conclusions.

Everyday life: make a prediction about what will happen based on observation about what has happened in the past.

Question 23

Heuristics

Answer 23

Rules of thumb.

Question 24

Availability heuristic

Answer 24

States that events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.

Question 25

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 25

States that the probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well A resembles properties of B. 
Eg pick one US man who wears glasses, is quiet and reads a lot. More likely he’s a librarian or farmer?

Question 26

Conjunction rule

Answer 26

States that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone).

Question 27

Confirmation bias

Answer 27

We selectively look for information that conforms to our hypotheses and we overlook information that contradicts them.

Question 28

Expected utility theory

Answer 28

People are rational and if they have all the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility.
Don’t always do this though eg gambling.

Question 29

Influence of emotions on decision making: expected emotions

Answer 29

Emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome.

Question 30

Incidental emotions

Answer 30

Emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision.

Can be related to a person’s general disposition.

Question 31

Opt-in, opt-out

Answer 31

Opt-in: person takes the initiative and takes active steps to become an organ donor.
Opt-out: person is an organ donor unless they request not to be a donor.

Question 32

Risk-aversion strategy

Answer 32

When choices are framed in terms of gains, people are encouraged to take the choice which avoids risk.

Question 33

Risk-taking strategy

Answer 33

When choices are framed in terms of losses, people are more likely to engage in risk-taking strategy.

Question 34

Framing effect

Answer 34

Decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated (can highlight one aspect).