Judgement and Decision making: Influences Flashcards
What is judgement?
The process in which determines a probability of an event based on partial/incomplete information.
What is decision making?
Selecting an option from other options.
- The step after judgement.
What is Bayesian interference?
The process in which prior beliefs/judgements to a situation is altered when new information is available.
What does Bayes’ theorem propose?
That base rate information should be taken into consideration when making judgements/decisions.
What is base rate information?
The prior likelihood of an event happening before it happened/new evidence is proposed.
What is decision-making/judgements influenced by?
- Heuristics.
- Social/emotional factors.
What are heuristics? Cite the source.
Heuristics are mental shortcuts which ignore the full information to make decisions quickly (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).
What are the types of heuristics? Describe them, and provide an example for each.
Availability
Decisions are easily made based on information that is easily accessible on hand.
- For example, when deciding which phone to buy, you may choose the most recognisable one (Apple) that first comes to mind.
- Oppenheimer (2004) this can be overridden tho, as participants can be conscious of this; participants when asked the more common name actively chose the one that does not use the availability heuristic.
Representativeness
Assumption that something belongs to a category based on its typical appearances/features.
- For example, assuming an ally of the LGBTQ+ community is a member too, because of their supportive tendencies.
Affect
When people uses their emotions to make judgements/decisions, rather than factual or logical evidence.
- E.g., buying from a more expensive company even though the quality might be worse than another. The individual does this because it might be the one they grew up with, and they get positive feelings from it.
Anchoring and adjustment
Initial piece of information (the anchor) is influenced.
- E.g., when a cinema ticket costs £30, and another costs £15: The £15 is seen as ‘cheap’, even though it’s not really..
What is the conjunction fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974)?
The assumption that the conjunction of two events is more likely than the probability of one.
- E.g., Linda used to partake in feminist movements, and is now a banker. She is viewed as a feminist banker (one thing), rather than just a banker and feminist (two things on their own).
What are some emotional and social factors affecting decision making/judgements? Provide an example for each.
Impact bias
Overestimating intensity and duration of negative consequences to losing.
- E.g., scared to ask out a girl because the fear of rejection.
Omission bias
Preference to take no action than action.
- Brown et al. (2010) when parents would prefer to take no vaccination against a disease, than take a vaccination with possible side effects.
Status quo bias
Accepting the current situation rather than making challenging decisions.
- E.g., staying with the same mobile provider, due to possible costs (increased prices, poorer results), even if there could be a better deal.
