Judgement and Decision Making Flashcards
Define a judgement
An inference about the unknown
What are the 4 requirements of a decision
- More than 1 possible action
- Different actions lead to different outcomes
- Uncertain outcomes described by probabilities
- Different values for different outcomes
What is a descriptive model?
How people do make decisions
What is a normative model?
How people should make decisions
Explain how a normative model works
It is based on the current situation, weighted by consequences, the goal is to maximize outcome (which is dependant on person’s wants).
It is based on chooser’s actions, outcomes, probabilities and values
List and explain 2 tools for normative decision making
Normative Decision tree - listing situations, outcomes, and probabilities of those outcomes and calculating the chance of getting a certain outcome
MAUT - multi attribute utility theory, weighting and scoring different attributes of an outcome
Explain how a descriptive model works
About doing things fast and frugal, based on cognitive constraints (normative analysis takes brain power, won’t use on a day to day basis), about speed more than accuracy, satisficing (daily decisions are good enough, don’t need to be the perfect answer)
Explain memory availability
If it’s easy to remember - it is common
If it is hard to remember - it is uncommon
*Subject to bias
What is similarity
Classifying things based on similarity
*Subject to bias
Explain bias
A consistent distortion, our imperfect judgements can be exploited by media/propaganda
What is framing effects?
How you frame a problem can influence a judgement or decision
What is the paradox of choice?
How much choice do you want? Too much choice can be overwhelming and can lead to making no choice at all
What is the social influence on choice?
People are less happy about decisions they make under social pressure, they would be happier if they just picked what they want
Do you need a brain to make a decision?
No, slime molds can make decisions and form memories
Can animals make decisions?
Yes, they can use heuristics and are biased
