IP Lesson 4 Flashcards
What is the single factor that causes price movement?
Orders placed by the whole population of traders
Is price movement precisely correlated with economic conditions?
No.
What will cause price to bounce up off a particular level?
Masses of BUY orders placed at that level.
What causes a currency ( if regarded as a product ) to rise in price?
When demand is higher than can easily be supplied.
What is the basic objective of technical analysis?
To identify where other traders are likely to have clustered their orders.
How is technical analysis used to identify where other traders are likely to have placed / clustered their orders?
By the study of historical price action.
What is the net effect of millions of other traders using technical analysis to place trades?
The trades create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What would happen if a majority of traders believed that the colour of the president’s tie guaranteed market direction?
The orders they placed as a result would actually move the market in that direction.
What gives a trading method it’s viability with respect to the total trading population?
The degree of agreement with the method.
BIG IDEA : Explain the effect of the psychology of the trading population as related to price movement.
The beliefs that traders at large maintain tend to result in self-fulfilling prophesies with regard to price action, the more widespread the use of a method of prediction, the greater validation it tends to receive as a result of the market following these opinions.
What is the essence of technical trading?
To use historical patterns of price action to identify where other traders will place their orders en masse.
What is the definition of a market making higher highs, and higher lows?
Up trending.
What is the condition of a market making lower highs and lower lows?
Down trend.
The condition for which most strategies are designed is :
Trending markets.
When price bounces up and down around a given level, like a band, what condition does this describe?
Ranging.
Which IP strategy is the fundamental strategy for capturing profit in a ranging market?
IP Reversals.
In a market with price moving up and down indecisively, with no overall movement, what condition does this describe?
Choppy.
What qualities does a choppy market tend to test / develop in a trader?
Discipline and confidence.
What is the key element in deciding how you respond to market opportunities and risks?
The identification of over-all price direction.
In any given market condition, what basic behaviours define it’s phases.
Runs and Pullbacks.
While the most common trading advice is “trade with the trend” what is the actual proportion of time trending vs. indecision and pullbacks in a Trending market?
About 50%
True or False, when trading with the trend, in a trending market will still be wrong half the time?
True.
When do the highest probability set ups occur in trending markets?
When a strong trend is established, and then price pulls back.
In a trending market, what are the best times to buy?
On the pullbacks.
In a trending market, what are the best times to sell?
On the runs.
What is the key factor in harnessing the power of a trending market?
Identifying when price is running or pulling back.
What does a swing high represent?
A peak in price.
What does a swing low represent?
A trough in price.
Why is the term “swing” used with regard to price action?
To differentiate a given price move from daily, historical, and other highs / lows.
BIG IDEA : The most basic principles of technical analysis are :
Support and resistance; which are price levels which have some historical significance that causes price to react to the same level. Such levels then provide valuable information for trading decisions.
What does support refer to?
Any level that which has proven to support price in the past.
What is the effect of a strong support level on price action?
It tends to act as a “floor”.
What does resistance refer to?
Any level which has proven to resist price highs in the past.
What is the effect of a strong resistance level on price action?
It tends to act as a ceiling.
How should support and resistance be represented during trading?
By drawing horizontal lines through these levels on my chart.
How are support and resistance most often identified?
By finding levels that price has bounced off in the past.
What tends to occur when price has bounced off a certain level numerous times in the past?
Traders will tend to buy around these levels.
What is the effect of clearly established support and resistance levels?
Traders use of those levels create self-fulfilling prophesies.
What numerical characteristic tends to produce support and resistance in terms of price?
Round numbers.
If a resistance line is broken, what will price often do as a result?
It will often pullback and test the line.
What is the effect of price pulling back and testing a line of resistance?
The line then acts as support.
What happens when price has pulled back and tested a line of resistance after breaking through that resistance, and transformed into a line of support?
The line supports price rallying up further.
What is it the name for price breaking through resistance, testing the line for support and bouncing up / rallying?
Break and test.
What is the value of “break and test” price action?
It is a high probability entry point!
Regarding trend lines, where are the lines drawn during an uptrend?
UNDER the swing LOWS.
What is the function of trend lines in an uptrend?
They act as support for the TREND.
What is the function of trend lines which support an uptrend effectively?
They signal high probability entries for the next RUN UP.
In a downtrend, the trend line is drawn at what level?
OVER the swing highs.
Downtrend lines generally are associated with what effect on price?
They act as a resistance level for the trend.
What is the value of Downtrend lines?
Often signal high probability entries for the next RUNDOWN.
What can happen if a resistance trend line is broken?
It could become support.
What can happen if a support trend line is broken?
It could become resistance.
How long can prices react to a trend line?
From hours to years.
When drawing lines on your chart, what is the most important thing to understand / remember?
That they are the product of my own personal opinion / perception.
When drawing lines on your chart, what is the main risk arising from the influence of your own opinions?
That my opinions might not clearly reflect what the market is actually reacting to.
What is your main goal when drawing lines on your chart?
That my lines accurately reflect the market’s perception more than my own opinion.
Which price point MUST you draw your lines through to create accurate representation of the market sentiment?
Open and close prices.
Why are the open and close prices more important than the daily highs and lows?
Because the market chose the open and closing prices over the highs and lows.
How many touches through a line are required for the line to be valid?
3 or more.
BIG IDEA : What are you trying to accurately chart with your trend lines?
What others will react to.
What are indicators ultimately descriptions of?
Mathematical relationships.
What do the mathematical relationships of indicators describe about the chart?
Various aspects, including trends, volatility, and momentum.
What can indicators help you to do?
confirm price patterns and trade entry signals.
Why does the use of indicators require discretion?
Because they can contradict each other, and do not contain any more information than the chart itself.
Do indicators reflect changes in the market before or after those changes occur?
Only after the change has been calculated and displayed by the indicator.
What is the best source of advanced knowledge and insight about the market as compared with indicators?
My skill and experience in trading.
How many indicators do professional traders usually use?
2-3.
How much complexity is required of the best performing strategies?
Minimal. They are extremely simple.
Why do the majority of traders not use their simple strategies consistently?
They spend more time trying to improve the strategy than their psychology and mindset.
What is considered to be the most powerful indicator in the IP arsenal?
MACD
What do moving averages represent about price?
Average price over a given period.
What is the value of Moving averages as a trading indicator?
It is useful for identifying trend direction.
Moving averages provide useful information for identifying trend direction, within an average range. What is the value of this average range of price in trading?
It provides a level of dynamic support and resistance.
Which moving average indicator is best suited to a fast moving market?
Exponential moving averages.
Why are exponential moving averages more suited to fast moving markets?
They are more adaptable in fast moving markets.
How do Exponential moving averages adapt efficiently to fast moving markets?
They weigh recent prices more heavily than older ones.
The industry standard blue EMA line represents what?
20 EMA
The industry standard Red EMA line represents what?
50 EMA
The industry standard Green EMA line represents what?
200 EMA
Example : When using 50 EMA, and the price is above the Red line, what is indicated?
That the market is Bullish.
Example : When using 50 EMA, and the price is below the Red line, what is indicated?
The market is Bearish.
In addition to the information about dynamic support and resistance, and over all market direction, what is the value of EMA’s?
Professional traders commonly place orders around the 20,50, and 200 EMA.
Why is it valuable to know that professional traders commonly use the 20,50, and 200 EMA to place orders?
Because it results in regular bounces from these levels.
Where is the MACD indicator found?
Below the chart.
What type of indicator is MACD in a technical sense?
It is a momentum oscillator.
What does the EMA generally indicate with regard to a trend?
Indicates if momentum is high or low.
How does MACD calculate / find if momentum is high or low?
It subtracts long period EMA from short period EMA.
What common error can be made by beginners with regard to MACD?
Attempting to develop entry signals.
What is the correct use of MACD?
Identifying convergences and divergences in price.
What is indicated when the price action is mirrored by the MACD line?
Convergence.
What is indicated when price action is NOT mirrored by the MACD line?
Divergence.
What does convergence, as communicated by MACD, indicate?
Market Momentum is in accord with the prevailing trend.
When Market Momentum is in accord with the prevailing trend, what can be reasonably expected?
A continuation of the trend.
What does divergence as communicated by MACD, indicate?
That Market Momentum is not in accord with the prevailing trend.
When Market Momentum is not in accord with the prevailing trend, what can reasonably be expected?
An immanent reversal.
What does RSI stand for?
Relative Strength Index.
What is RSI technically?
A momentum occilator.
What does RSI measure?
The speed and change of price movements.
What is the range through which RSI occillates?
between 1-100
Where is RSI generally found on it’s 1-100 scale?
Between 30-70.
What is indicated when RSI is below 30?
The market is OVERSOLD, undervalued.
What is indicated when RSI is above 70?
The market is OVERBOUGHT, and thus overvalued.
What can be reasonably expected of Oversold markets?
They are due to move up.
What can reasonably be expected of Overbought markets?
They are due to move down.
What can RSI be used to identify?
Divergences in price.
What does the Stochastic Oscillator measure / represent?
It identifies overbought / oversold market conditions.