IP Lesson 2 Flashcards
BIG IDEA : How does compounded growth over time produce the best results in terms of wealth AND security?
Compounded returns over time have the capacity to exponentially multiply those returns, and the emphasis on consistency leads to strategies which are also relatively conservative, systematic, and secure.
What is the general goal of the IP strategy?
Consistent, compounded returns over time.
What is the mathematical function that makes compound interest so powerful over time?
Exponential growth
BIG IDEA : Explain the role of personal psychology in trading success.
The key to consistent, exponential returns over time is self-management and refinement of my own psyche. The success of the strategy is built in mathematically, so the most sublime results come from my capacity to think and act with tranquility, and recognize the ups and downs as part of the process which generates the ultimate result.
BIG IDEA : Why is psychology the most essential element in trading success?
Because the success of the strategy is built in mathematically, but a trader’s ability to see the patterns & opportunities accurately, maintain the strategy’s edge, originates in the mind, attitude and psyche of the trader. Trading reflects and develops character.
What is the key factor in consistent profits over time?
My own psychology.
What is the key behaviour that allows me to play my edge to my advantage?
Strict adherence to my system’s rules.
What does Rule #1 say?
Trade ONLY what you SEE.
What does Rule #1 tell you NOT to do?
Do NOT trade what you think.
What part of the brain filters incoming information?
The reticular activating system.
What is the significance of the reticular activating system to trading?
It can omit or highlight information from conscious awareness, a vital ability to recognize trading patterns and opportunities.
Why is it so essential to stick to your system’s rules whether you feel it is a good trade or not?
Because maintaining an edge requires maximum consistency.
Do fears and the threat of loss arise from the market or from your perceptions about the market?
From my perceptions about the market.
What kind of perspective is needed to perceive opportunities in the market?
A neutral perspective.
What is needed psychologically to maintain a neutral focus on market opportunities?
Clear understanding that perceived threats and fears come from my own psychology, not the market itself.
BIG IDEA : Explain the difference between probability and prediction as it applies to trading.
Probability recognizes that it is the nature of the market to fluctuate according to patterns which are consistent and repetitive over time. Individual market moves cannot be predicted, but strong possibilities can.
What is it that causes the patterns in the market to repeat and maintain a consistent, probabilistic nature?
The consistently repeated behaviours of mass human psychology.
BIG IDEA : What is the role of probability in making vast profits over time with compound interest?
Probability based on repetitive mass human psychology is what makes a mathematical edge possible, and the edge is what makes consistent, compounding of interest possible.
Why does your system’s effectiveness depend upon adhering to the rules, even if individual trades lose?
Because it is based upon a probability model, not absolute prediction.
What is a probability model?
A system that describes the likelihood of patterns recurring in the market
True or false : The market displays unbiased information about the buying and selling activities of other traders and economic forces.
True
True or false : The market is against you.
False
True or false : the market displays a constant stream of opportunities to make money.
True.
Example : You have lost 5 trades in a row, and your system identifies an opportunity to buy. You should :
A. Double check your system to identify possible errors
B. Seek additional information to check if it is actually a correct signal
C. Wait to see what happens, to see if your signal is actually correct.
D. Breathe deep, and place your order.
Identify the good trade :
A. You followed your strategy to the letter and flawlessly executed the trade without any emotional interference, but lost money.
B. You deviated from your strategy on a hunch, and banked a winning trade!
Answer : A!
Identify the good trade :
A. You deviated from your strategy on a hunch but lost money
B. You followed your strategy to the letter, and flawlessly executed the trade without any emotional interference, and banked a winning trade!
Answer : B.
Which trading strategies have no losing trades or losing streaks?
None!
When trading, is your primary objective to trade your strategy or make a short term profit?
To trade my strategy.
You are trading your strategy to the letter, but hit a losing streak:
A. it’s time to take a break
B. it’s time to calm your emotional reaction and keep to your strategy
C. it’s time to try a different strategy
B.