IOM Flashcards

1
Q

What is the difference between risk and uncertainty?

A

Risk

Present when managers know the possible outcomes of a particular course of action and can assign probabilities to them

Uncertainty

The future is unknown, and probabilities cannot be given for outcomes

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2
Q

What is the expected utility theory?

A
  • Actual decisions made depend on the willingness to accept risk
  • Expected utility theory allows for different attitudes towards risk-taking in decision making
    • Managers are assumed to derive utility from earning profits
  • Managers make risky decisions in a way that maximises expected utility of the profit outcomes
  • Utility function measures utility associated with a particular level of profit
    • Index to measure level of utility received for a given amount of earned profit
  • Managers attitude toward risk
    • Determined by the manager’s marginal utility of profit
    • Marginal utility (slope of utility curve) determines attitude towards risk
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3
Q

How can you tell if someone is risk averse from the utility curve?

A

You are risk averse with respect to a gamble if you prefer the expected value of the gamble with certainty to the gamble itself.

You are risk averse if the expected value is greater than the certainty equivalent.

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4
Q

Explain the flaws in the utility model by comparing it with the prospect model

A
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5
Q

Explain how to carry out project planning and control

A

Project planning and control

Stage 1: Understand the project environment

  • Geo-social environment
    • Geography and national culture
  • Econo-political environment
    • Economy and government
  • Business environment
    • Customers, competitors and suppliers
  • Internal environment
    • Company strategy, resources and other projects

Stage 2: Project definition

  • Aim, strategy and scope

Stage 3: Project planning

  • Objectives: what is the goal and estimate of cost/ time
  • Project scope: how to approach, feasibility, major tasks
  • Contract requirements: reporting and performance, responsibilities
  • Schedules: activities, tasks, timelines, milestones
  • Resources: budget and budget control
  • Personnel
  • Control: monitoring and evaluating progress and performance
  • Risk analysis
  • Identify activities
  • Estimate the times and resources for activities
  • Identify relationship and dependencies between activities
  • Identify time and resource schedule constraints
  • Fix the schedule for time and resources

Stage 4: Technical execution

Stage 5: Project control

  • Earned value analysis
  • Probabilistic analysis: program evaluation and review technique
    • Most likely time (m), optimistic time (a), pessimistic time (b)
    • Mean = a + 4m + b / 6
    • Variance = (b – a / 6) ^2
    • Use expected times to identify critical path, and compute slack and project time
    • Total project variance = Sum of variance of critical path activities
    • Project variance is a measure of the risk involved in the project
  • Crashing project networks
    • Process of reducing time spans on activities so that the project is completed in less time.
    • Focus must be on critical path activities
    • In order to decide which activity to crash, the ‘crash cost slope’ of each is calculated (crash cost per time period).
    • Crash the activity on the critical path which has the lowest crash cost slope.
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6
Q

Explain the components of a simple queuing system. Give examples

A

The calling population

  • The population which customers/jobs originate
  • The size can be finite or infinite (the latter is most common)
  • Can be homogeneous (only one type of customer/job) or heterogeneous

The arrival process

  • Determines how, when and where customer/jobs arrive to system
  • The important characteristic is the customers/jobs inter arrival times
  • Correct specification of the arrival process requires data collection of interarrival times and statistical analysis

The queue configuration

  • Specifies the number of queues
  • Their location
  • Effect on customer behaviour (balking or reneging)
  • The max size the queue can hold (infinite/finite capacity)

Service mechanism

  • Can involve one or several service facilities with one or several parallel service channelsThe service provided by a server is characterised by its service time
    • Typically involves data gathering and statistical analysis
    • Most analytical queuing models are based on the assumption of exponentially distributed service times

The queue discipline

  • Specifies the order by which jobs in the queue are served
  • Most common principle is FIFO
  • Other rules are: LIFO, SPIT, EDD
  • Can entail prioritisation based on customer type

Examples of world queuing systems:

Commercial queuing systems

  • Commercial organisations serving external customers
  • E.g. dentist, bank, ATM, petrol stations, plumber, garage …

Transportation service systems

  • Vehicles are customers or servers
  • E.g. vehicles waiting at toll stations and traffic lights, trucks or ships waiting to be loaded, taxi cabs, fire engines, lifts and buses

Business – internal service systems

  • Customers receiving service are internal to the organisation providing the service
  • E.g. inspection stations, conveyor belts, computer support …

Social service systems

  • E.g. ER at a hospital, waiting lists for organ transplants, waiting lists for primary school places
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7
Q

What are the advantages of multiple line queues vs single line queues

A

Multiple line vs single

Multiple:

  • Service provided can be differentiated
  • Labour specialisation possible
  • Customer has more flexibility
  • Balking behaviour may be deterred: several medium length queues are less intimidating

Single

  • Guarantees fairness
  • No customer anxiety regarding choice of queue
  • Most efficient set up for minimising time in the queue
  • Jockeying (queue switching) is avoided
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8
Q

Explain the importance of variability in queuing

A

If there were no variability, there would be no need for queues to occur

Statistically, the usual measure for indicating the spread of a distribution is its standard deviation sigma.

However, variation does not only depend on standard deviation.

To normalise standard deviation, it is divided by the mean of its distribution. The measure it called the variation of the distribution.

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9
Q

Describe the different between steady and transient state

A

Steady state condition

  • Enough time has passed for the system state to be independent of the initial state as well as the elapsed time
  • The probability distribution of the state of the system remains the same over time (is stationary).

Transient condition

  • Prevalent when a queuing system has recently begun operations
  • The state of the system is greatly affected by the initial state and by the time elapsed since operations startedas
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10
Q

Explain Little’s Law

A
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11
Q

What is the probability that there is n jobs in the system in a queue in the M/M/1 model.

A
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12
Q

In the M/M/1 model what is:

Expected number of customers in the system

Expected time a job spends in the system

Expected number of customers in queue

Expected time a job spends in the queue

A
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13
Q

What are the different shortage costs in queuing and how do you analyse design costs trade offs?

A
  1. External customers arrive to the system
  • Profit organizations
    • The shortage cost is primarily related to lost revenues “Bad Will”
  • Non profit
    • The shortage cost is related to a societal cost
  1. Internal customers arrive to the system
    * The shortage cost is related to productivity loss and associated profit loss

Usually it is easier to estimate the shortage costs in situation 2 than in situation 1.

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14
Q

What is Operations Research? Give examples of the different types

A

OR professionals aim to provide a rational basis for decision making by seeking to understand and structure complex situations and to use this understanding to predict system behaviour and improve system performance.

Done using analytic and numeric techniques to develop and manipulate models of organisational systems.

Types of OR models

  • Linear programming: objective function and constraints are all linear functions of the decision variables
  • Network flow programming: special case of linear program where situation can be modelled as a network
  • Integer programming: variables are required to take integer values
  • Non-linear
  • Dynamic programming: process described in terms of states, decisions, transitions and returns. Problem is to find sequence that maximises total return.
  • Stochastic programming: Uses random variables for some aspects of the problem. Expression can be written for the expected value of the objective.
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15
Q

What is the common terminology for linear programming?

A
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16
Q

What are the assumptions in linear programming?

A
  • Proportionality
    • contribution of each activity Xj to the value of the objective function Z is proportional to the level of the activity Xj as represented by the CjXj term in the objective function. Similarly, the contribution of each activity to the left-hand side of each functional constraint is proportional to the level of the activity Xj, as represented by the AijXj term in the constraint.
  • Additivity
    • Every function in a linear programming model (whether the objective function or the function on the left-hand side of a functional constraint) is the sum of the individual contributions of the respective activities.
  • Divisibility
    • Decision variables in a linear programming model are allowed to take any values, including non-integer values, that satisfy the functional and non-negativity constraints.
    • Since each decision variable represents the level of some activity, it is assumed that the activities can be run at fractional levels.
  • Certainty
    • The value assigned to each parameter of a linear programming model is assumed to be a known constant.
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17
Q

Describe the algorithm for shortest path problem

A

Objective of the nth iteration:

  • Find the nth nearest node to the origin

Input to the nth iteration:

  • n-1 nearest nodes to the origin, including their shortest path and distance from the origin. (These nodes, plus the origin, will be called solved nodes)

Candidates for the nth nearest node:

  • Each solved node that is directly connected by a link to one or more unsolved nodes provides one candidate – the unsolved node with the shortest connecting link to this solved node. (Ties provide additional candidates).

Calculation of the nth nearest node

  • For each such solved node and its candidate, add the distance between them and the distance of the shortest path from the origin to this solved node. The candidate with the smallest such total distance is the nth nearest node (ties provide additional solved nodes), and its shortest path is the one generating this distance.

Applications

  • Minimising the distance travelled
  • Minimising the total cost of a sequence of activities
  • Minimising the total time of a sequence of activities
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18
Q

Describe the mimimum spanning tree algorithm and its applications in the real world

A

Algorithm to solve the MST problem

  1. Select any node arbitrarily, and then connect it to the nearest distinct node
  2. Identify the unconnected node that is closest to a connected node, and the connect these two nodes. Repeat this step until all nodes have been connected.
  3. Tie breaking: Ties for the nearest distinct node (step 1) or the closest unconnected node (step 2) may be broken arbitrarily, and the algorithm must still yield an optimal solution. However, such ties are a signal that there may be (but need not be) multiple optimal solutions. All such optimal solutions can be identified by pursuing all ways of breaking ties to their conclusion.

Applications of the MST problem

  • Design of telecommunication networks
  • Design of a lightly used transportation network to minimise the total cost of providing the links
  • Design of a network of high voltage electrical power transmission lines
  • Design of a network of wiring on electrical equipment
  • Design of a network of pipelines to connect a number of locations
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19
Q

Explain the augmenting path algorithm

A

An augmenting path is a directed path from the source to the sink in the residual network such that every arc on this path has strictly positive residual capacity. The minimum of these residual capacities is called the residual capacity of the augmenting path because it represents the amount of flow that can feasibly be added to the entire path.

  1. Identify an augmenting path by finding some directed path from source to sink in the residual network such that every arc on this path has strictly positive residual capacity. (if no augmenting path exists, the net flows already assigned constitute an optimal flow pattern)
  2. Identify the residual capacity c* of this augmenting path by finding the minimum of the residual capacities of the arcs on this path. Increase the flow in this path by c*.
  3. Decrease by c* the residual capacity of each arc on this augmenting path. Increase by c* the residual capacity of each arc in the opposite direction on this augmenting path. Return to step 1.

Some applications of the maximum flow problem

  • Maximise the flow through a company’s distribution network from its factory to its customers
  • Maximise the flow through a company’s supply network from its vendors to its factories
  • Maximise the flow of oil through a system of pipelines
  • Maximise the flow of water through a system of aqueducts
  • Maximise the flow of vehicles through a transportation network
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20
Q

Explain the max-flow min-cut theorem

A

Max-flow min-cut theorem

The theorem states that, for any network with a single source and sink, the maximum feasible flow from the source to the sink equals the minimum cut value over all cuts of the network.

Equivalently, optimality has been attained whenever there exists a cut in the residual network whose value is zero.

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21
Q

What are the examples of some logical constraints?

A
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22
Q

What is a supply network?

A

Supply Network: A set of connected but geographically dispersed firms involved in making and delivery of product/service to end customers

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23
Q

What are the different supply network decisions?

A

Strategic

  • investment in plants: numbers, locations
  • introduction of new products: BOMs used
  • manufacturing technology
  • creation of logistics network
  • make vs buy, supplier selection

Tactical

  • manufacturing system
  • inventory policy
  • procurement policy
  • IT system and information flow
  • customer strategies, demand planning, forecasting

Scheduling of resources (labour, machine, vehicles)

Routing of raw materials and finished products

Solicitations of bids/quotations, order processing

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24
Q

What is procurement, explain the difference between direct and indirect procurement

A

Means purchasing inputs used in the firm’s value chain

  • Raw material
  • Supplies
  • Consumable items
  • Assets such as machinery, lab equipment, office equipment, buildings

Direct purchasing: buying for primary activities

Indirect purchasing: providing supplies and services for support activities

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25
Q

What are the different procurement strategies?

A

Performance based partnership

  • High dependence on one supplier
  • Used for strategic products

Competitive bidding

  • In general, no long-term supply contract, rather multiple sourcing
  • Used for interchangeable products

Securing continuity of supply

  • Securing supply of bottleneck products, if necessary, at additional cost
  • Reducing dependence on supplier by developing alternative products and looking for alternative suppliers

Category management and e-procurement solutions

  • MRO (maintenance, repair, operating supplies) products require a purchasing strategy which is aimed at reducing administrative and logistic complexity
    • Electronic catalogues
    • Article catalogue (standardisation of product assortment)
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26
Q

Plot purchasing’s impact on financial results vs supply risk

A
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27
Q

How do you choose a sourcing strategy?

A

Single vs. multiple sourcing

  • Assessment with regards to dependence, supply risk and transaction costs

Global vs. local sourcing

  • Local sourcing preferred when product is a high-tech product for which specification often changes; high flexibility and precision required in terms of delivery

Partnership or competitive relationship

  • Competitive relationship mostly used when commodities are purchased, when the products are purchased in in large volumes and when many suppliers are available

Buying on contract or buying on spot basis

  • Contract buying preferred when prices are expected to rise
  • Advisable to choose a mix between contract and spot buying

Price agreement vs. performance agreement

  • Performance agreement often used when services are purchased (Service level agreement)
  • Price agreements might be sufficient if standard quality products are purchased (for example certain types of fabric)
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28
Q

What is the objective of locations strategy? What factors impact how it is picked?

A

Objective of location strategy: to maximise the benefits of location to the firm

Location decisions can be determined by:

  • Marketing strategy
    • Compete on cost: find low cost location
    • Compete on level of responsiveness: close to transportation networks/market
  • Cost of doing business
  • Growth
    • Potential access to more customers
    • Expanding product portfolio
  • Depletion of resources
    • Industries where resources determine key success

Factors influencing location decisions

  • Economic
    • Tariffs, taxes, trade concession, capital subsidies
  • Temporal
    • Competition, demand patterns, industry dynamics, presence of related industries (clustering), skilled employees’ engagement
  • Physical location
    • Labour cost, developed infrastructure, proximity to market, cost of inputs, competitors locations, specialised inputs
  • Organisational factors
    • Strategic role of a factory amongst multiple plants
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29
Q

Why do companies go abroad? What should they consider?

A
  • M&A
  • Business growth
  • Faster lead times/cost reduction
  • Increase of offshoring

Aspects countries should consider:

  • Country level
    • Political risks, legislation, economic issues (currency), location, labour, availability of suppliers
  • Region level
    • Labour, cost, regulations, proximity to resources, land cost
  • Site level
    • Site size/cost, distribution systems, proximity to suppliers, environmental impact, clustering
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30
Q

Why are location decisions so important?

A

Irreversible allocation of the firm’s capital – long term/strategic decision

Business continuity

Impact on supply chain performance

  • Lead times
  • Inventory
  • Responsiveness to demand
  • Flexibility
  • Quality
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31
Q

What are the different causes of uncertainty in a supply chain and how do they affect the SC

A

Causes:

  • Labour
  • Natural disasters
  • Machinery
  • Power grid shutdown
  • Foreign exchange
  • Demand:
    • arises from volatile demand or inaccurate forecasting
  • Raw material availability and price
  • Supply:
    • caused by variability of supplier’s performance e.g. defective deliveries
  • Process:
    • results from the unreliability of the production process due to e.g. machine breakdown, employees underperformance, wrong methods used
32
Q

Explain the centre of gravity approach

A
33
Q

What are the benefits of supplier collaboration and government?

A

Organisation benefits

Increased performance:

  • Access to innovation
  • Improved customer satisfaction
  • Better quality
  • Improved on time delivery
  • Increased responsiveness

Lower risk:

  • Less SC disruption
  • Less reputational damage
  • Less product scarcity
  • Fewer delayed responses to crises

Supplier benefits

  • Lower operational cost
  • Motivation to innovate
  • Increased efficiency
  • Better planning

Mutual benefits

  • Product development time shortening
  • Quality improvements
  • Cost reduction
  • Smooth release of new product
  • Value co creation
34
Q

What are the different types of supplier relationships?

A
35
Q

What are the different collaboration techniques?

A

Just in time

  • When products are delivered when they are needed.

Vendor managed inventory

  • When suppliers take responsibility for a range of contracts to manage the buyer’s inventory. A method introduced to cope with bull-whip effects.

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment

  • When supply chains become integrated. CPFR seeks cooperative mgmt. of inventory through joint visibility and replenishment of products throughout the supply chain.
36
Q

What is supply chain sustainability?

A

Supply chain sustainability is the management of environmental, social and economic impacts, and the encouragement of good governance practices.

The boundary of responsibility often extends beyond the reach of a corporation’s ownership and control

Aim is to achieved traceability and transparency of SC through supplier collaboration

Traceability:

  • Identification of better sources of raw materials, compliance with internal law standards and certification
  • A tool to build a reputation for supplying high quality products
37
Q

How do you categorise and evaluate supply partners? What are the challenges for partnership building in terms of collaboration, government and sustainability

A

Categorise existing and potential suppliers as:

Strategic

Suppliers important for the buying firm in the sense that they provide the buying firm with essential material and capabilities that cannot be substituted

Preferred

Suppliers that could be replaced, with some effort, in the long-term.

Transactional

Suppliers that can be easily replaced in the short-term

Evaluation criteria: price, delivery, quality, production capability, localisation etc.

38
Q

What is procurement?

A

Procurement is an auction:

  • Requirements for the next performance period
  • Communicate to suppliers (bidders)
  • Suppliers submit a bid (first price, sealed bids)
  • The procurement team chooses the winning bidder

Procurement, logistics, inventory mgmt. and production control are tightly linked

In some markets, 80% of product revenues is directed to suppliers for labour, material and equipment

39
Q

Explain the importance of supplier evaluation in procurement and draw the procurement iceberg

A
  • Market requires product and service quality at reasonable prices. Depends highly on production and suppliers.
  • Suppliers are being selected based on their value-added capabilities.
  • The buying firm has to determine
    • Product/service attributes
    • Expected requirements and
    • Right quality at reasonable price

the process:

  1. Identify key purchasing
  2. Determine puchasing strategy
  3. Identify potential sources
  4. Limit supplier in pool
  5. Determine method of evaluation
  6. Make selection
40
Q

Explain the different methods of supplier evaluation (procurement)

A
  • Process-based evaluation
    • Evaluation based on suppliers’ production or service processes.
  • Performance-based evaluation
    • Evaluation based on (objective) performance measures
    • Examples:
      • Categorical
      • Cost Ratio
      • Weighted point (linear averaging)
  • Value based sourcing:
    • Can the supplier decrease our risk (e.g., reducing bottlenecks/critical parts purchasing; disruption response; exchange rates)?
    • Can the supplier provide some other competitive advantage (e.g., differentiating factor; new product variant)?
    • Can the supplier help expand the portfolio to address new customer needs?

Categorical method

  • Categorization of every supplier, in specific areas, based on a pre-defined list of performance variables.
  • Categorical assessment, e.g. ‘good’, ‘neutral’, ‘unsatisfactory’.
  • Easy to implement, minimal data required, low-cost
  • Lacks reliability, subjective, manual process

Cost ratio method

  • Categorization of every supplier by standard cost analysis.
  • Rating performance at each performance factor.
  • Specific underperformance areas are identified, objective supplier ranking, long-term improvement potential, comprehensive assessment
  • Cost-accounting required, complex process, information technology resources required

Weighted-point method

  • Categorization of every supplier by weights on a list of performance variables.
  • Flexible system, supplier ranking, moderate capital costs, combines qualitative and quantitative factors
  • Tendency to focus on price, information technology resources required
41
Q

What are the different inventory types and motives for keeping inventory? What are the attributes of an inventory system (cost and demand)?

A

Inventory types:

  • Raw materials
  • WIP
  • Finished goods

Motives for keeping inventory:

  • Economies of scale
  • Uncertainty
  • Speculation
  • Transport
  • Smoothing
  • Logistics
  • Cost control

Attributes of inventory systems:

Demand:

  • Stable or variant
  • Deterministic or stochastic
  • Lead time
  • Review time
  • Periodic review
  • Continuous review
  • Lost sales

Cost elements:

  • Holding cost
  • Order cost
  • Penalty cost
42
Q

What are the key concepts that make up supply chain risks?

A

Key concepts that make up supply chain risks

Events:

  • Occurrence happening at a determinable time and place, with or without the participation of human agents
  • Financial shock, trade dispute, geopolitics, natural disaster, disease

Vulnerability

  • Inability to withstand the effects of an event.

Uncertainty

  • Uncertainty related to a known event (risk) and uncertainty related to an unknown event (pure uncertainty)

Risk

  • Chance of event happening that will have negative or positive consequences
  • Risk is made up of uncertainty, impact, context and nature
  • Probability of an event x impact of that event

Resilience

  • Ability to recover from network failure, which is achieved by continuously changing supply networks in response to risks by using risk mitigation approaches, such as adopting new processes and /or practices or by reconfiguration
43
Q

Explain why a changing world creates supply chain risks? Give examples of supply chain risks

A

OEM:

  • Vertical integration vs specialisation
  • Integral products vs modular assembly
  • Centralised vs dispersed

Unpredictable environment

Changing technology landscape

  • faster life cycles

Increasing dependence on suppliers and subcontractors

Implications for future

  • Value chains are increasingly fragmented and complex
  • Competition between global supply chains
  • Managing uncertainty is a key requirement
  • Emergence of new business models
44
Q

What are the different types of supply chain risks?

A
  • R&D risk
    • Management
    • Product /process design and technology
    • Skill set
  • Procurement risk
    • Supplier relationship
    • Raw material
    • Location
  • Production risk
    • Management
    • Product, process technology
    • Location
  • Distribution risk
    • Management
    • Product
    • Location
  • Sales and marketing risk
    • Management
    • Demand projection
    • Location
45
Q

What are the two approaches for supply chain risk evaluation and management?

A

Two approaches for supply chain risk evaluation and management

1. Traditional

  • Identify supply chain characteristics
  • Identify risks linked to these
  • Evaluate risks (impact and probability)
  • Choose mitigations
  • Evaluate impact of mitigations
  • Plan mitigations
  • Monitor risks and risk mitigation

Risk:

  • Identification
  • Assessment
  • Mitigation
  • Monitoring

2. Configuration approach

Mapping SC:

  • Network structure
  • Process flow
  • Value structure
  • Product characteristics

Event:

  • Characteristics
  • Database

Identifying risks

  • Overlaying event data on SC map
  • Identification of vulnerability led risk

Mitigations

  • Change in network structure
  • Alternative process flow
  • Adjusting value structure
  • Product redesign
46
Q

Compare and contrast the traditional and the configurational approach to supply chain risk management.

A

Traditional approach of supply chain risk management:

  • Identifying Supply chain risk characteristics
  • Identifying risks linked to supply chain characteristics
  • Evaluate risks
  • Choose relevant risk mitigations
  • Evaluate impact of chosen mitigation
  • Plan mitigations
  • Monitor risks and risks mitigation

Configuration approach of supply chain

  • Mapping Supply chain : Including network structure, process flow, value and product characteristics
  • Understanding event: characteristics and database
  • Identifying risks: overlaying event data on SC map and identification of vulnerability led risk
  • Mitigations: Change in network structure, alternative process flow, value adjustment and product redesign
47
Q

Draw the supply chain resilience framework

A
48
Q

Describe using examples, the terms vulnerability, risk and resilience in the context of supply chains.

A
  • The supply chain risk and resilience framework explains the concept of event, vulnerability, risk and resilience.
  • At its centre is ‘event’ (such as climate change, war, new regulation or financial crisis), which might have significant impact on supply networks.
  • Next is ‘vulnerability’, which is associated with structure of supply network and particularly its lack of flexibility.
  • ‘Risk’ appears when key events and vulnerability interacts with each other, which leads to supply network failure.
  • Next is ‘risk mitigation’, which is an action or set of actions taken by companies to minimise either impact or changes (probability) of risk.
  • ‘Resilience’ is an ability to recover from network failure, which is achieved by continuously changing supply networks in response to risks by using risk mitigation approaches, such as adopting new processes and /or practices or by reconfiguration
49
Q

What are the different supply chain risk mitigation strategies?

A

Risk mitigation strategies:

  • Increase capacity
  • Acquire redundant suppliers
  • Increase responsiveness
  • Increase inventory
  • Increase flexibility
  • Pool or aggregate demand
  • Increase capability
50
Q

Describe six supply chain risk mitigation strategies. Explain possible unintended consequences of supply chain risk mitigation, using examples.

A

Supply Chain Risk Mitigations:

  • Increase capacity
    • Build centralised capacity for unpredictable demand
    • Build decentralised capacity for managing supply chain disruptions due to natural disasters
  • Acquire redundant supplier
    • Favour more redundant supply for high volume products, less redundancy for low volume product
    • Centralise redundancy for low volume products in a few flexible suppliers
  • Increase responsiveness
    • Favour cost over responsiveness for commodity products
    • Favour responsiveness over cost for short life products
  • Increase inventory
    • Decentralise inventory for predictable, low value products
    • Centralise inventory for unpredictable, high value products
  • Increase flexibility
    • Favour cost over flexibility for predictable, low volume products
    • Favour flexibility for low volume, unpredictable products
    • Centralise flexibility in a few locations if it is expensive
  • Increase capability
    • Prefer capability over cost for high value, high risk products
    • Favour cost over capability for low value, commodity products
    • Centralise high capability in flexible source if possible

Unintended consequences of supply chain mitigations

  • Adding capacity increases cost of operation. High capacity cannot be sustained in the long run if there is perfect competition
  • Increasing inventory increases cost of operation.
  • Having redundant suppliers increases cost of operation.
51
Q

How do you calculate population and sample:

Mean

Standard deviation

How do you find the outliers when cleaning data?

A
52
Q

What are the assumptions of the mean square linear regression model?

A

Model assumptions:

Mean of zero: at any given value of x, the population of the error term values has a mean equal to zero

Constant variance assumption: at any value of x the population of the potential error term values has a variance that does not depend on the value of x

Normality assumption: At any given value of x, the population of potential error term values has a normal distribution. If this assumption holds, a histogram of residuals should look bell and symmetric

Independence assumption:Any one value of the error term is statistically independent of another.

53
Q

What are different goodness of fit test?

A

The Chi square test

  • Involves comparing the histogram to a discretised pdf of the fitted distribution.
  • The higher the p value or the lower the test statistic the better the fit.
  • A disadvantage of this test is arbitrariness in the binning and different bins give different answers
  • For this reason this statistic should only be used when the distribution being tested is discrete.

Kolmogorov-Smirnov

  • KS statistic is to compare the cdf of the fitted distribution and the cdf of the sample data by taking the max vertical difference between them.
  • In general, the lower KS the better the fit.
  • KS < 0.03

Anderson-Darling

  • AD statistic weighs the squared distance between the fitted and observed distribution
  • In general, the lower AD the better the fit.
  • AD < 1.5

Criteria information tests can help make decisions

  • BIC and AIC
54
Q

What are data analytics and why do we need it?

A

Data analytics is…

  • The extensive use of data, statistical analysis, and predictive models to drive decisions and actions.

Analytics has long existed in manufacturing firms:

  • Total quality mgmt.
  • Statistical analysis for product quality

Increasingly used in all areas of manufacturing…

  • Which supplier
  • How should supply chain be configured
  • Best sales channel
  • How are products used
  • What product configurations
55
Q

What are the different types of machine learning?

A

Machine learning

  • Supervised learning
    • Here is the data set where the right answers are given for each example. Please produce more right answers.
    • Classification
  • Unsupervised learning
    • Here is the unlabelled data. Please find peculiarities, similarities or structures (clusters) in the data yourself
    • Association rule learning
    • Clustering
  • Reinforcement learning
    • Learn to do something by maximising your reward
56
Q

Explain classification: give examples

A
  • Aim: to label data
  • Create a model that predicts what class label new data should have
  • Model must first be trained by providing examples
  • Examples: classify suppliers, predict condition of engineered parts, classify customers purchasing habits

Various different algorithms for classification:

  • Tree induction
  • Bayesian
  • Rule based
57
Q

Explain association rule learning: give examples

A

Aim

  • To find interesting associations between data values
  • Based on the frequency that values appear together
  • It only finds whether associations exist or not- it does not indicate why there is an association

Examples: detecting when manufacturing equipment needs maintenance, detecting what is causing a defect in a product, logistics

Metrics:

  • Support: how pervasive is the rule?
    • the rule appears in 50% of all the transactions
  • Confidence: how certain is the rule?
    • for transactions containing chips (premise), the rule is correct 75% of the time
58
Q

Explain clustering: give examples

A

Aim:

  • To group data into classes or “clusters”
  • (so that items in the same cluster have a high similarity to one another but are dissimilar to items in other clusters)
  • Useful to discover features that distinguish groups
  • Useful as a pre-processing step for classification: to automatically determine labels
  • The class labels are discovered by clustering and therefore do not need to be provided
  • Examples: identify factors that distinguish customer types, identification of products that are returned, determine what machines develop faults

Main methods

  • Partitioning methods (k means)
  • Hierarchical methods
  • Density based methods
  • Grid based methods
  • Model based methods
59
Q

What does a neural network look like?

A
60
Q

How do you calculate weights in a neural network?

A
61
Q

What is the activation function?

A
62
Q

How do we assess the performance of a neural network and how do we improve that performance for each iteration

A
  1. Evaluation: How do we assess how well the network performs?
  • Initialise with random weights and biases
  • Show the network a training example
  • Network calculates the activations of all neurons of all layers (using initial weights and biases)
  • And then we can compare the value of each output neuron with the value we actually wanted and compute the squared error for each neuron
  • This is done for all neurons in the output layer and sum up the squared errors
  • So far this was the error for a single image. So, we do the whole process for ALL thousands of training examples
  • Then we take the average error for each training example
  1. Optimisation: How do we tell the network how it can improve its performance?
  • We know how to find the minimum
  • We calculate the derivative, set it to zero
  • Then we get the point and check if it is a global minimum or not

Gradient descent

  • You start anywhere on the (multi-dimensional) cost function: random initialisation
  • You “look” into all directions from the point of where you are and determine the direction with the steepest descent: you calculate the negative Gradient (the direction of steepest descent)
  • You then move one step into that direction
  • The step size (or “learning rate”) matters
  • The negative gradient of the cost function tells us how to adjust our weights to take the next step
63
Q

How do you develop a simulation model?

A
  • Understand model goals
  • System analysis
  • Model and simulation specification
  • Model verification and validation
  • Design and run experiments
  • Draw inferences
64
Q

Why is manufacturing servitising?

A

Economic rationale:

  • Manufacturing firms in developed countries cannot compete on cost
  • Installed base argument
  • for every new car sold there are already 13 in operation, 15 to 1 for civil aircraft and 22 to 1 for trains
  • Stability of revenues – service vs products

Strategic rationale:

  • Lock in customers
  • Lock out competitors
  • Increase the level of differentiation
  • Customers demand it
  • Service as a pre-sale activity

Environmental rationale:

  • Environmental rationale
65
Q

What are the seven principles of service design?

What are the phases of service design thinking?

A

What are the seven principles of service design?

  1. Bias toward action
  2. Embrace experimentation
  3. Radical collaboration: bring together innovators from varied backgrounds
  4. Show don’t tell: communicate by creating experiences
  5. Focus on human values: understand the people you are designing for and get feedback
  6. Craft clarity: produce a coherent vision
  7. Be mindful of process: know where you are in the process and what your goals are

The phases of service design thinking

Empathize

  • Observe, engage, immerse

Define

  • Define your point of view
  • Provides focus, reference for evaluating ideas, fuels brainstorming

Ideate

  • Ideate to step beyond the obvious solutions and drive creativity

Prototype

Test

66
Q

Show the examples of servitisation for Zoelis, GEA and Pearson and compare them

A
67
Q

Explain the key facts about the service journey

A

Findings show that the service journey occurs:

  • Small, careful and incremental changes
  • At different organisational levels
  • The 4th year is crucial. Two concurrent steams of service development:
    • Continue to build up on current basic and intermediate services
    • Exploration and piloting of more complex services
68
Q

What are the seven critical success factors for service transistion?

A

Seven critical success factors:

Assess market and internal readiness

Creating the strategic and cultural context:

  • Design service vision
  • Define customer mindset and engage partners
  • Develop service culture

Structures and governance

  • Define leadership, set organisational structure

Resources

  • Define company and individual resources

Engagement and trust

  • Engage customer mindset, partners
  • Enable change

Service processes

  • Design and plan service model
  • Pilot and model
  • Portfolio mgmt.
  • Commercial execution

Optimise and communicate best practices

69
Q

What is DM, why digital manufacturing, why now?

A

The application of digital information [from multiple sources, formats, owners] for the enhancement of manufacturing processes, value chains, products and services

Why DM

  • Cost
  • Time
  • Labour
  • Manage complexity
  • Better customer service
  • Quality

Why now?

  • Sensors
  • Tech (AI, cloud, data analytics)
  • Globalisation (global supply chain)
  • Flexible product demand
  • Product service demand
70
Q

What are today’s manufacturing challenges?

A

Making things cheaper, faster, better

  • Increased productivity
  • Material & energy sustainability
  • Resilience to change/disruption mgmt.

Making things in different ways:

  • Distributed production: network of geographically dispersed manufacturing facilities that are coordinated using information technology.
  • Late customisation
  • Near customer manufacturing
  • Specialised

Manufacturing in new areas

  • Production at retailer, the farm, the construction site, home

Manufactured product and service blending

  • Aircraft operational services
  • Customised logistics
  • Hospital support services
  • Appliance repair services
  • Non production operations with resource constraints, cost thresholds, quality targets etc

Summary

  • more productive, sustainable, resilient, etc
  • distributed, specialised, customised, localised
  • Production in a remote / mobile / small scale / one off manner
71
Q

What technologies are impacting Digital Manufacturing today?

A

What technologies are impacting DM today?

Sensing: non industrial sensing, network many devices, vision, AR, VR, crowd sourced data

Analysis: cloud computing, mobile computer, clustering algos

Decision: Machine learning, smart products, optimisation, low cost computing

Actuation: Cobots, customers in the loop, AM, FPGAs

72
Q

What is industry 4.0 what is the rationale what are the dimensions?

A

Industry 4.0

What is it:

framework for enabling the intelligent integration of physical and digital resources, services and humans resources in manufacturing in real time.

Rationale:

strong individualisation of products, flexible production, hybrid (servitisation)

Dimensions:

Vertical integration and networked manufacturing systems

Horizontal integration through value networks

End-to-end digital integration of engineering across the en3re value chain

73
Q

Describe an example of a digitally-enabled solution that could expand your firm’s offerings and increase customer loyalty.

A
  • Basic answer will draw upon some of the new digital service solution examples that have been presented in the servitisation lectures,
  • e.g. Rolls-Royce Total Care, CAT fleet services, etc.
  • that illustrate how data captured from clients can be used to improve service (e.g. reliability) and offer additional services:

Stronger answers should describe the value proposition and value capture (revenue streams) of these new models, and specifically how these lead to both an expanded offering and increased loyalty.

E.g. CAT demonstrates its value proposition – by clients providing access to data from use of their assets leads to increased value capture, i.e. clients are willing to pay for the benefits gained (preventative maintenance, improved asset utilisation, and assigning jobs).

74
Q

Your firm realises that it is losing revenues from the sale of parts and servicing to independent maintenance firms often using replacement parts from third-party suppliers. Discuss how you can use the phases of service design thinking to introduce a service to solve this problem.

A

Basic answers introduce a solution for the firm structured around the phases of service design thinking:

An example solution could be the company can contact the garage and offer them a service to help fix the vehicle including:

  • a. Information about the equipment and the problem including diagnostics data
  • b. Shipment of spare parts to fix the problem
  • c. Installation instructions”

This will lead to win-win results:

  • The company secures the parts sale
  • Garages more likely to recommend Finning for large, complex jobs because of their closer relationship
  • Independent garages can reduce stock levels
  • Diagnostic information helps garages to fix the vehicle quickly and provide a better service to the customer
  • Vehicle fixed with certified parts, improving the quality of maintenance for Caterpillar equipment owners

Stronger answers would describe not just the possible solution but show how these could be developed step-by-step for each phase of the service design process, and to link this explicitly to the challenges being faced by the firm due to the changing commercial context.

75
Q
A