Investments Flashcards
Investment Policy Statement
RR TLLU
Objectives:
- Return requirements
- Risk tolerance
Constraints:
- Time Horizon
- Laws and Regs
- Liquidity needs
- Unique circumstances
- Permitted investments
- Prohibited investments
- Tax constraints
- No investment selection
Primary Market
Market in which new issues of securities are sold to the public.
- public offering
- rights offering (give existing shareholders the rights to buy new issues)
- private placement (not open market)
Secondary Market
- provides investors way of buying and selling securities that were issued in primary market
- NYSE, NASDAQ, OTC, AMEX
- Provides liquidity to shareholders
IPO Process
- Investment banking firm or syndicate underwrites the IPO
- Buys the stock from firm
- Advises firm
- Selling group: join and accept responsibility for selling shares
Accredited investor
- $200K/year income or
- 1M of net worth excluding personal residence or
- Trusts > 5M
Underwriting types (3)
Underwriting takes 3 forms:
- firm commitment - underwriter buys all the stock and takes risk it won’t sell
- best efforts approach - any stock not sold is returned to the company
- private placement
- sold to no more than 35 unaccredited investors
- avoids SEC registrations
American Depository Receipts
- A US Bank’s foreign branch holds stock of a foreign company
- Bought and sold on US market
- Prices quoted in US dollors
- Exchange rate risk
- Represent shares held in foreign foreign branch
Yankee Bonds
- No exchange rate risk
- US$ denominated bonds sold by a foreign entity in the US
- Because they are US denominated, there is no exchange rate risk.
- Registered with SEC
Securities Act of 1933
- Regulates primary market
- Deals with new security issues
- Paper act
- Prospectuses
Securities Act of 1934
- Regulates secondary market
- Gives SEC power to regulate markets, disclosure requirements of new and current securities
The Investment Advisors Act of 1940
- Investment Advisors must disclose all relevant info about
- Advice (investment advice)
- Background
- Conflicts of interest
- If under 100M AUM register with the state
- Greater than 100M AUM register with SEC
Insider Trading and Fraud Act of 1988
- Defines insiders as:
- Directors, officers, shareholders, anyone who obtains nonpublic information.
- Established penalties
Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
- Protects against corporate fraud
- requires instant disclosure of stock sales
- tightened audit regulations
- established conflict of interest guidelines.
SEC Fair Disclosure (FD)
- requires distribution of market-moving information
- prohibits “pre-release” of information to market professionals.
US Patriot Act
Requires broker-dealers:
- to have anti-money laundering policies
- to have anti-money laundering officer
- gather information on clients
- source large deposits and transfers
initial margin
- amount of equity that must be put up
- Fed minimum margin amt is 50%
maintenance margin
the amount of equity that must maintained
Debit balance
- amount borrowed to purchase security
Margin position equation
Margin position = (Value of sec. - Debit balance)/Value of securties
Margin call stock price = Debit balance/ (1 - Maintenance Margin)
Market Cap of Indexes
S & P: Large cap
Wilshire 5000: Broad index - all caps
Russell 2000: small cap
Stop-limit order
Turns a stop-loss order into a limit order at a certain price
Prevents selling at a too-low price if the price declines rapidly.
Might not result in sale
Stop-loss order
Executes a market order once the stock drops to a certain price (can sell for much lower if rapidly decline)
Required Rate of Return
Required Rate of Return = Real rate + expected inflation premium + risk premium
Time-weighted return
The return of one security during the time period.
Investment’s cash flows
(InvestmenT, Time)
Dollar-weighted return
Return on the number of stocks that a specific investor transacts
Investor’s cash flows
(dollaR, investoR)
Systematic Risk
market-driven risk; Non-diversifiable risk
- Purchasing power (inflation - cash, bonds)
- Reinvestment Rate (risk that interest rates go down)
- Interest rates
- Market risk (general market movements, business cycle)
- Exchange Rate
Measured by beta
Unsystematic risk
- diversifiable risk
- business risk
- accounting/audit risk
- executive risk
- country risk
- default risk
- financial risk
- business risk
Total Risk
- Systematic risk + unsystematic risk
- measured by Standard Deviation
Beta
- Sensitivity of a security to market movement
- indication of a security’s volatility relative to the market.
- Only measures systematic, undiversifiable (market) risk.
- Derived by plotting a security’s return vs. market return; slope = beta
- Security return = Beta * Market change
Standard Deviation
- Absolute measure of risk.
- Measure of total risk (systematic + unsystematic)
- Based on an individual security’s historical return
- Higher standard deviation = more risk
- σ
- Measures variation of return around an average
- +1/-1 SD : 68% probability
- +2/-2 SD: 95% probability
- +3/-3 SD: 98% probability
Coefficient of Variation
- compares assets that have different risk and different return.
- higher CV, the greater the risk
- Standard deviation/average expected return
Semi-variance
- only measures instances where returns are below the mean
- used so risk isn’t understated by being influenced by high returns
- better measure of downside risk
Distributions of returns
- normal distributions - bell curve
- lognormal distribution - not symmetrical
- skews either negative or positive
- skewness - measures lack of symmetry
- kurtosis - degree to which bell curves are flat or peaked
- skews either negative or positive
Correlation
- drives risk reduction in diversification
- ranges from -1 to 1
- r or Rho
- -1: always move in opposite directions - no diversification benefit
- 0: not correlated at all
- 1: always move in the same direction
Calculating SD of a 2-fund portfolio
Wa = %age weight of stock a
Wb= %age weight of stock b
σ=standard deviation
COV = covariance = Rho * σa* σb
rho=correlation
R2
Coefficient of determination
- Correlation coefficient squared
- Shows what percentage of return can be attributed to the market
- The higher the r-squared, the better the measure to the benchmark
- R2 should be at least .7 or 70%
- If R2is > or equal to .7, then Beta is a good measure of risk because the market is not correlated enough to the investment for Beta to determine risk level.
Efficient Frontier
- Portfolios that offer the highest level of return for a given level of risk
- Created by Harry Markowitz
- Portfolios that lie outside of the frontier - upper left - are not attainable
- assumes that investors have perfect knowledge and want to maximize returns
Capital Market Line
- A well-diversified portfolio will fall along the CML,
- Standard Deviation is the measure of risk
- The CML is derived by drawing a tangent line from the intercept point on the efficient frontier to the point where the expected return equals the risk-free rate of return.
- M represents the market portfolio, so named since all rational investors (minimum variance criterion) should hold their risky assets in the same proportions as their weights in the market portfolio.
Security Market Line
- Provides a measure for fund performance
- Beta is the measure of risk
- Line from the risk free rate (x-axis)
- CAPM is the equation of this line
- M (market return) is the intersection between efficient frontier and SML.
Capital Asset Pricing Model
- Gives a required or expected rate of return, given the riskiness of the asset
- ri= Investors required rate of return
- rf= Risk free rate
- rm=Return of the market
- ß= Beta
Market Risk Premium
rm- rf= market risk premium
The difference between market returns and returns at the risk free rate.
The amount of returns required to undertake market risk (Beta = 1)
Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Multi-factor model.
Beta is not an input
Probability Analysis
- Probability Analysis used to determine the expected return or expected risk based on the likelihood of different scenarios
Sensitivity Analysis
- Quantifies how a client reacts to extreme low probability outcomes and determine how changes in risk/return impact asset allocations.
Monte Carlo Simulation
- employs many scenarios to build a probability distribution table for retirement planning.
Traditional Portfolio Management vs. Modern Portfolio Theory
- Trad: Based on diversifiying between sectors
- MPT: Based on SD, Beta, Efficient frontier, low correlation securities
Fixed weighted asset allocation
- predetermined asset class allocation
Flexible weighted asset allocation
Weights for each asset class are adjusted periodically based on market analysis.
Tactical asset allocation
use stock-index futures and bond futures to change a portfolios asset allocation
Sharpe Ratio
- how much risk-adjusted return are we receiving per unit of risk taken. The higher the better.
- Risk measure is SD
Sp= Sharpe Index
rp= return of portfolio
rf=Risk free rate of return
σ= standard deviation of the portfolio.
Treynor’s measure
- Uses the Beta of the portfolio to measure the portfolio’s return in relationship to risk.
- The higher the better
- Relative measure
Jenson’s measure (alpha)
- Difference between actual returns and expected returns
- Actual return minus CAPM
- Positive returns are good.
- Absolute measure - not relative
When to use Sharpe, Treynor or Alpha
- if r2 is greater than or equal to .70, then it’s okay to use Treynor or Sharpe
- If r-squared is less than .70 then use Sharpe
- R-squared indicates how reliable Beta is as a measure of risk.
- Sharpe is the only one not affected by Beta (low r-squared is an indication that Beta is not a good measure)
Dollar-cost averaging
Fixed dollar amount is invested at fixed intervals.
Constant-dollar plan
- portfolio has a speculative and a conservative portion
- When the specualtive portion increases to a predetermined dollar amount, profits are transferred to the conservative
- and vice versa
Constant Ratio Plan
- portfolio has a speculative and a conservative portion
- When the specualtive portion increases to a predetermined percentage, profits are transferred to the conservative
- and vice versa
Variable ratio plan
Ratio varies based on market timing
Rights Offering
An offer to existing share holders to purchase new stocks (can be at a preferred price)
Stock spin off
Conversion of one of the firm’s subidiaries to a stand-alone company by distribution of stock in that new company to existing shareholders.
Stock split
- Increases the number of shares and decreases the value of the stock by an equal amount.
- Mutiply number of shares times the ratio and share price times reciprocal. e.g. 5 to 3 = 5/3
Treasury stock
- Stocks that have been sold and subsequently bought back by the company.
- Buybacks are considered a positive signal
- Often used to fund management stock option plans rather than issue new shares.
Classified common stock
- different classes of stock have different benefits
- e.g Class A - non-voting stock; Class B - voting stock
Book Value for common stock
- assets - liabilities - preferred stock = book
- Book = shareholders equity
- amount of equity shareholders have in the company.
Market value of common stock
- the prevailing market price of the security
- market capitalization = market value * number of shares outstanding
Investment value
- The amount that investors believe a security should be trading for or what they think it’s worth.
- Based on expectations of risk and return and how return is expected from dividends and capital appreciation.
EPS
- Earnings per share
- Profit after taxes - preferred dividends/number of shares outstanding.
- Retained earnings are the percentage of EPS not paid to stockholders.
Date of record
- Date on which one has to be a shareholder in order to receive the dividend
- Takes 3 days to settle - must buy 3 days before Date of Record
ex-Dividend Date
- 3 trading days up to and including the date of record (2 trading days before) where stocks trade without the dividend
- if you sell on or after the ex-dividend date you still receive dividend.
Dividend Yield
Annual dividend/current share price
Dividend payout ratio
- Ratio of amount paid out in dividends vs. amount reinvested in company
- Dividends per share/earnings per share
- High DPR could suggest difficulty in paying future dividends (not enough growth)
Blue chip stocks
Issued by large, financially stable companies
Income stocks
- High dividend payouts
- Sometimes have low growth potential
- subject to interest rate risk
Growth Stocks
- Issued by companies that are experiencing rapid growth
- Usually pay little or no dividends
Cyclical Stocks
- issued by companies are closely linked to the overall economy
- move up and down with the business cycle
Defensive stocks
Pricing remains stable despite economic changes
Mid-Cap Stocks
- Market cap from 2 - 10 Billion
- Good market return with less volatility than small-cap
- baby blue chips: have same characteristics of blue-chips but smaller
Small-cap stocks
- Less than $2 Billion Market Cap
- High risk exposure
Intrinsic Value
- The determined value of a stock based on economic analysis, industry analysis, and fundamental analysis (analysis of the company’s financial and operations condition
- dependent on future cash flows, discount rate used to determine future value, risk associated with future performance
Economic Analysis
General study of the prevailing economic environment to establish a foundation for the valuation of common stock.
Looks at:
- Fiscal policy
- Monetary policy
- Inflation
- Consumer Spending
- Currency rates
- GDP
Stock Dividends
- Dividends are received as stock instead of cash.
- Generally not taxable until sold.
DRIP
- Dividend Re-Investment Plan
- Automatically re-invest in the security
- Taxed as if received as cash
PE Ratio
- Price to earnings ratio
- How much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of income.
- Price per share/Earnings per share
- Value stocks have lower PE ratios
Industry Analysis
- Perform SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis.
- Establish the competitive position of an industry relative to others..
- Develop industry outlook
- Looks at the following
- monopolistic vs. competitive
- regulation
- labor relations
- role of technology
Fundamental Analysis
- Ratio study of particular company
- Use financial statement, income statement, statement of cash flows.
Company balance sheet
- summary of assets, liabilities, and shareholder equity (assets - liabilities = shareholder equity)
- at a point in time.
Company Income Statement
- Revenues and expenses over a period of time.
- Reports net income
Statement of Cash Flows
- Summary of a firm’s cash flow and other events that caused changes in the cash position
- Determines how cash was used or generated during period.
Firm Liquidity Analysis
- Measures company’s ability to meet day to day operating expenses and short-term obligations
- Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current liabilities
- Net Working Capital = Current Assets - Current liabilities
Activity Ratios
- Measure how well a firm is managing its assets
- The higher the better:
- Accounts receivable turnover = Sales/Accounts Receivable (how many times/year are we able to collect our accounts receivable)
- Inventory turnover = Sales/Inventory (how many times/year are we turning over our inventory)
- Total Asset Utilization = Sales/Total Assets (how is a firm utilizing their assets to generate sales?)
Leverage Ratios
How much fixed financing has the firm been using?
- Debt to equity ratio = Long-term debt/shareholder equity
- Times interest earned = Expenses Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) /Interest expense (the higher the better)
Return on Equity
- Return on the amount invested
- Net income/equity
Profitability Ratios
- Measures relative success:
- Net profit margin = Net income/sales
- Return on assets = Net profit after taxes/Total assets (assets = liabilities + equity)
PEG Ratio
Stock’s PE Ratio/3-5 year growth rate in earnings
- If less than or equal to 1: growth is dues to earnings
- If greater than 1: PE is outpacing earnings growth
Book Value per Share
- Shareholders’ equity/Number of shares outstanding
- Compare to market cap to determine if overvalued or undervalued.
Price to Book Ratio
- Market price/Book value per share
- Book value = Shareholder’s equity/number of shares.
Estimate future stock price
Look at future:
- Sales
- Profit margin
- earnings
- dividends per share
- PE
Zero Growth Dividend Valuation Model
- Best for Blue Chip Stocks with constant dividend
- Stock price = Dividend/Required Rate of Return
Constant Growth Rate Dividend Valuation Model
- Assumes dividends will grow at a constant and determinable rate
- D1 = D0 + (1 + g) = Next year’s expected dividend
- V= Value of stock
- r = Required rate of return
- g = growth rate of dividend
- P = Market price for security
- V = D1 / (r-g)
- r = ( D1/P )+ g
Variable Growth Model Dividend Valuation
- Solve for return at and beyond the time period of constant growth using constant growth model
- Use cash flows to calculate NPV. Cash flow 0 is 0. Final cash flow solution from constant growth model. Input interest rate and solve for NPV.
Expected Growth Rate
- g = ROE * rr
- g= growth
- ROE = Return on Equity
- rr = rentention rate (amt. retained after dividend payout = 1 - dividend payout rate
P/E approach to valuation
- Stock Price = EPS * P/E ratio
Technical Analysis
- Forcasting stock prices based on
- charting of stock movements
- looking for patterns
- looking at supply and demand for stocks
The Dow Theory
Market Technical Indicators
- Supply and demand
- Volume
- Breadth of the market (number of advancing stocks is greater than the number declining)
- Short interest (lots of short selling indicates future demand, measures pessimism/optimism)
- Odd-lot trading
- Advance-decline line
- New highs, new lows
- charting
- Moving average
Random Walk
- Stock prices are unpredictable and follow a random pattern
- Contradicts techinical analysis
Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Markets have a large number of knowledgeable investors who react quickly to new information
- Asset prices reflect all relevant information.
Weak-form Market Efficiency
- Past prices and volume is reflected in market pricing.
- If markets follow weak-form efficiency
- techical analysis is not useful
- fundamental analyis is useful
- inside information