Investment planning Flashcards
Holding period return (HPR)
(Ending Value-Beginning Value) + Income / Beginning Value
Dividends received: add to numerator
Margin interest paid: subtract from numerator
If question mentions after-tax gain or loss, taxes paid are subtracted from numerator.
When purchasing securities on margin, include only equity in the trade in the denominator.
Forms of Underwriting: Best Efforts
Underwriter agrees to sell as much as possible of the offering, risk of issue not selling resides with firm (unsold shares return to company)
Forms of Underwriting: Firm Commitment
Underwriter agrees to buy entire issuance of stock from the company, may make a spread (e.g., buy for $18 and sell for $20).
Risk that an issuance may not sell stays with the underwriter.
Prospectus
Outlines risks, management team, business operations, fees, and expenses.
Must be issued by investment company prior to selling shares to investor.
Red Herring
Preliminary prospectus issued before SEC approval, used to determine investors’ interest in the security
10K Report
Annual report of financial statements filed with the SEC. 10K is audited.
10Q Report
Quarterly report filed with the SEC - NOT audited
Annual Report
Sent directly to shareholders
Contains message from Chairman of the Board on the progress in the past year and outlook for coming year
Liquidity
How quickly something can be turned into cash, with little or no price concession. Short term investment assets are considered liquid: CDs money market accounts high-yield savings accounts government bonds Treasury bills
Marketability
Exists where there is a ready-made market for something. Marketable investments include: Stocks Bonds Mutual funds Exchange traded funds Treasury Bills Money Market instruments
Market Order
Timing and speed of execution are more important than price
Appropriate for stocks that are not thinly traded
Limit Order
Price at which trade is executed is more important than timing
Most appropriate for stocks that are extremely volatile and are not frequently traded
Stop Order
When the price hits a certain level, the order becomes a market order, stock is sold at that price or lower. Primary risk: investor may receive significantly less than anticipate if market is moving too quickly.
Stop-Limit or Stop-Loss-Limit Order
Investor sets 2 prices:
(1) stop-loss price - once this is reached, the order turns into a limit order
(2) limit price - investor will not sell below the second price
Risk: if market moves quickly, order may not fill and investor will be left with stock at significantly lower price.
Appropriate for investors with a significant gain built into the stock, but who may not want to sell during period of significant volatility.
Short selling
Selling at a higher price, in the hopes of purchasing the stock back at a lower price (goal: sell high, buy low)
Investor makes profit when asset’s price decreases in value.
Must have margin account to protect against appreciation of the stock.
No time limit on how long investor can maintain the short position.
Dividends paid by the company must be covered by the short seller.
Initial Margin
Amount of equity an investor must contribute to enter a margin transaction
Reg T set initial margin at 50% and established by the Federal Reserve
Can be more restrictive based on the volatility of a stock
Assume 50% on the exam unless stated otherwise in the question
Maintenance Margin
Minimum amount of equity required before a margin call
Margin position
Current equity position of the investor
Margin call
Loan / 1 - Maintenance Margin
Sample calculation: How much equity must an investor contribute, when a stock price falls below the stock price and the investor will receive a margin call?
Bob purchased 100 shares of Starbucks trading at $50 per share with an initial requirement of 75% and a maintenance margin of 35%. The price fell below $15. How much equity must Bob contribute?
Required Equity:
Stock price: $15
Maint. Margin: x 0.35
Required Equity: $5.25
Sample calculation: How much equity must an investor contribute, when a stock price falls below the stock price and the investor will receive a margin call?
Bob purchased 100 shares of Starbucks trading at $50 per share with an initial requirement of 75% and a maintenance margin of 35%. The price fell below $15. How much equity must Bob contribute?
Required Equity:
Stock price: $15
Maint. Margin: x 0.35
Required Equity: $5.25
Sample calculation: How much equity must an investor contribute, when a stock price falls below the stock price and the investor will receive a margin call?
Bob purchased 100 shares of Starbucks trading at $50 per share with an initial requirement of 75% and a maintenance margin of 35%. The price fell below $15. How much equity must Bob contribute?
Required Equity Actual Equity
Stock price: $15 Stock Price: $15
Maint. Margin: x 0.35 Debt: $12.50
Required Equity: $5.25 Actual Equity: $2.50
$5.25 - $2.5 = $2.75 per share = $275 in total
Research Reports: Value Line
Ranks STOCKS on a scale of 1 to 5 for timeliness and safety
Ranking of 1 represents the highest ranking for timeliness and safety (signal to buy)
Ranking of 5 represents lowest ranking (signal to sell)
Research Reports: Morningstar
Ranks mutual funds, stocks, and bonds using 1 to 5 stars (primarily MUTUAL FUNDS!)
1 star represents lowest ranking, 5 stars represent highest ranking
Dividend Dates
Dividends are declared by the BOD and typically paid quarterly
Ex-Dividend Date
Date of Record
Ex-Dividend Date
Date the stock trades without a dividend
If you sell the stock on the ex-dividend date, you will receive the dividend
If you buy the stock on or after the ex-dividend date, you will NOT receive the dividend
Ex-dividend is ONE BUSINESS DAY before the date of record
Remember: EX-Date trades without dividend
Date of Record
Date on which you must be a registered shareholder in order to receive the dividend
= ONE BUSINESS DAY after the ex-dividend date
Investor must purchase the stock 2 business days prior to the date of record in order to receive the dividend
Purchases made on ex-dividend date will not receive the dividend; to receive the dividend, an investor must purchase the stock prior to the ex-dividend date or 2 business days before the date of record
Types of Dividends
Cash dividends: Qualified dividends receive capital gains tax treatment
A cash dividend is taxed upon receipt
Stock dividends: not taxable to shareholder until stock is sold
Stock splits
Increase shares and reduce stock price:
2-for-1 split for 100 shares at $50 per share results in 200 shares at $25 per share
3-for-2 split for 100 shares at $60 per share results in 150 shares at $40 per share
Securities Act of 1933
Regulates issuance of new securities (Primary Market) - IPOs
Requires that new issues are accompanied with prospectus before being purchased
Securities Act of 1934
Regulates secondary market and trading of securities
Created SEC to enforce compliance with security regulations and laws
Investment Company Act of 1940
Authorized SEC to regulate investment companies
3 types of investment companies: Open, Closed, UITs
Investment Advisors Act of 1940
Required investment advisors to register with the SEC or state
Securities Investors Protection Act of 1970
Established SPIC to protect investors from losses resulting from brokerage firm failures
Does not protect investors from incompetence or bad investment decisions
Insider Trading and Securities Fraud Enforcement Act of 1988
Defines and insider as anyone with information that is not available to the public
Insiders cannot trade on that information
Money Market Securities
Treasury bills
Commercial paper
Bankers Acceptance
Eurodollars
Treasury Bills
Issued in varying maturities up to 52 weeks
Denominations in $100 increments through Treasury Direct up to $5 million per auction. Larger amounts available through a competitive bid
Commercial paper
Short-term loans between corporations Maturities of 270 days or less Does not have to register with the SEC Denominations of $100,000 Sold at discount
Bankers Acceptance
Facilitates exports/imports
Maturities of 9 months or less
Can be held until maturity or traded
Eurodollars
Deposits in foreign banks that are denominated in US dollars
Investment Policy Statement
Establishes
(a) client’s objectives: required return, risk tolerance
(b) limitations on investment manager (time horizon, liquidity needs, taxes, laws and regulations, circumstances unique to the client)
Used to measure investment manager’s performance
Does NOT include investment selection
Remember: IPS establishes RR TT LL U - risk, return, taxes, timeline, liquidity, legal, unique circumstances
Market Averages and Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Simple Price-Weighted Average
Does not incorporate market capitalization
S&P 500:
Value-Weighted index
Incorporates market capitalization
Russell 2000:
Value-Weighted index of the smallest capitalization stocks in the Russell 3000
Wilshire 5000:
Broadest Value-Weighted index measuring performance of over 3000 stocks
EAFE:
Value-Weighted index tracking stocks in Europe, Australia, Asia, Far East
Standard Deviation
Measures risk and variability of returns
The higher the SD, the higher the riskiness of the investment
Measures TOTAL RISK of an UNDIVERSIFIED portfolio
Probability of returns: 68% = 1 x SD; 95% = 2 x SD; 99% = 3 x SD (add or subtract to mean return)
Calculating Standard Deviation
Dan has 2 stocks in his portfolio with the following returns over the past 5 years:
A: 10%, 13%, 8%, -2%, 14%
B: 6%, -3%, 4%, -5%, 7%
Calculate the SD for both stocks:
10 Σ+ 13 Σ+ 8 Σ+ 2+/-Σ + 14 Σ, Orange Shift Sx, Sy
6 Σ+ 3+/- Σ+ 4 Σ+ 5+/-Σ + 7 Σ, Orange Shift Sx, Sy
A= 6.3875%
B= 5.4498%
A is more risky because SD is higher
What is the total expected return for the following portfolio?
Expected Return Probability
10% 30%
15% 60%
18% 10%
Answer: 13.80%
10% x 30%) + (15% x 60%) + (18% x 10%
Coefficient of Variation
CV= Standard Deviation / Average Return
Useful in determining which investment has more relative risk when investments have different average returns
Tells us probability of actually experiencing a return close to the average return
The higher the coefficient of variation the more risky an investment per unit of return.
If 2 investments have the same return, go with the higher Standard Deviation to determine the higher risk investment.
Normal Distribution
- used in probability analysis of expected returns around an average return
- average (expected) outcome in the middle X
- symmetrical curve
- 50% probability of a return > X
- 50% probability of a return < X
Standard deviation σ measures variance around that expected return
- probability of a return falling within +/- 1 σ of the average is 68%
- probability of a return falling within +/- 2 σ of the average is 95%
- probability of a return falling within +/- 3 σ of the average is 99%
Lognormal Distribution
appropriate when investor is considering a dollar amount or portfolio value at a point in time
Skewness
Refers to the extent to which a distribution is not symmetrical.
Positively skewed distributions may have outliers in the upper, or right tail (“skewed to the right”)
Stock markets tend to be positively skewed.
Negatively skewed distributions have many outliers in the lower, or left tail (“skewed left”).
Commodity returns tend to be skewed.
Kurtosis
Describes when a distribution is more or less peaked than a normal distribution.
Refers to the variation of returns:
Normal distribution: mesokurtic
Little variation of returns: distribution has high peak = positive kurtosis (Leptokurtosis) - slender (e.g., Treasuries)
Widely dispersed returns: low peak = negative kurtosis (Platykurtosis) - broad
Mean Variance Optimization
Process of adding risky securities to the portfolio but keeping the expected return the same, finding the balance of combining asset classes that provide the lowest variance as measured by standard deviation.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Spreadsheet simulation that gives probabilistic distribution of events occurring, e.g., what is the probability of running out of money in retirement with a client who has a withdrawal rate of 3%, 4%, 5%. Monte Carlo simulation adjusts assumptions and returns the probability of an event occurring depending upon the assumption.