Introduction to Intelligence Flashcards
1
Q
Define intelligence as it pertains to governmental or nongovernmental organizations.
A
- Intelligence is defined as information collected, often secretly, by either governments or nongovernmental organizations
-It is subsequently analyzed and converted into a product used by decision makers in these organizations [1].
2
Q
List four categories by which intelligence is often categorized based on methods of data collection.
A
- Intelligence is often categorized by the methods of data collection, including Human Intelligence (HUMINT), Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT), Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT), and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) [1, 2].
3
Q
Describe the analytic process in intelligence.
A
- The analytic process involves converting raw data gathered by intelligence agencies into actionable insights
- The final “product” is designed for use by decision-makers [2].
4
Q
Name the three levels at which intelligence operates.
A
- Intelligence operates across three levels: Strategic, Operational, and Tactical [2, 3].
5
Q
List four activity categories into which intelligence activities can be classified.
A
- Intelligence activities can be classified into domains such as Political Intelligence, Military Intelligence, Economic Intelligence, and Law Enforcement Intelligence [3, 4].
6
Q
What is ‘decision advantage’ in the context of intelligence?
A
- Decision advantage is the ability to anticipate and counter an adversary’s plans, enabling preemptive actions [4].
7
Q
Define strategic intelligence and its typical time frame.
A
- High-level intelligence for national leaders and policymakers
- Supports long-term decisions on national security, defense, and foreign policy
- Focuses on global threats, geopolitical trends, and power shifts
8
Q
Give an example of strategic intelligence in a military context.
A
- During the Cold War, a key focus for US strategic intelligence was assessing the Soviet Union’s nuclear capabilities [6].
9
Q
Define operational intelligence and its typical time frame.
A
- Mid-level intelligence for military commanders
- Used for planning and executing campaigns or major operations
- Bridges the gap between strategic and tactical intelligence
- Focuses on enemy movements, logistics, and battlefield conditions
10
Q
Describe the primary use of operational intelligence in a military context.
A
- In military contexts, operational intelligence encompasses leadership, maneuver, fires, intelligence, information/cyber, and logistics supporting a campaign in a theater of operations [7].
11
Q
Define tactical intelligence and its focus.
A
- Immediate, real-time intelligence for frontline units
- Supports direct combat and mission execution
- Provides details on enemy forces, terrain, and weather
- Used for quick decision-making on the battlefield
12
Q
Give an example of tactical intelligence application.
A
- Determining whether to fire a Hellfire missile from a UAV (drone) at a suspected terrorist leader is an example of tactical intelligence [8, 9].
13
Q
What is the first step in the intelligence cycle, and what is its purpose?
A
- The first step in the intelligence cycle is Planning and Direction, which begins with identifying information needs, often articulated as requirements by policymakers to improve situational awareness [9, 10].
14
Q
What are ‘requirements’ in the intelligence cycle?
A
- Requirements are statements of information needs that guide the rest of the intelligence cycle [10].
15
Q
Describe the challenges associated with policymaker participation in the intelligence cycle.
A
- Challenges include limited policymaker understanding of intelligence and national security processes, and policymakers’ priorities often lie elsewhere (e.g., domestic policy, judicial appointments, reelection) [10, 11].
16
Q
Distinguish between standing requirements and ad hoc requirements.
A
- Standing requirements are ongoing issues planned in advance (e.g., Soviet nuclear capabilities during the Cold War), while ad hoc requirements are urgent, unanticipated needs (e.g., Soviet missile deployment in Cuba in 1962) [11].
17
Q
What is the National Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF)?
A
- The National Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF) was developed in 2003 to systematize priorities based on senior policymakers’ concerns, using a matrix to rank priorities for various actors and topics [11, 12].
18
Q
What is the main objective of the collection phase in the intelligence cycle?
A
- The main objective is to gather new information to address intelligence requirements [12].
19
Q
Name four key collection disciplines used in intelligence gathering.
A
- Key collection disciplines include HUMINT (Human Intelligence), OSINT (Open Source Intelligence), GEOINT (Geospatial Intelligence), and SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) [12, 13].
20
Q
What are the key components of intelligence collection?
A
- Key components include the sensor (mechanism that gathers intelligence) and the platform (delivery method for the sensor) [13].
21
Q
What are the challenges associated with data storage in intelligence collection?
A
- Large volumes of data and balancing resources for both collection and processing are significant challenges [13, 14].
22
Q
What is the purpose of the processing and exploitation phase in the intelligence cycle?
A
- To analyze collected data to extract relevant intelligence [14].
23
Q
What are the main challenges during the processing and exploitation phase?
A
- The volume of data and filtering relevant from irrelevant data are major challenges [14, 15].
24
Q
What is the objective of the analysis and production phase in the intelligence cycle?
A
- To transform processed data into actionable intelligence [16].
25
What is 'all-source analysis'?
- All-source analysis combines multiple sources to create a comprehensive intelligence product [16].
26
Name four types of intelligence analysis.
- Descriptive, Current, Estimative, and Indications and Warning (I&W) are types of intelligence analysis [16, 17].
27
What are the challenges during the analysis and production phase?
- Incomplete information, denial and deception, and cognitive biases are key challenges [17, 18].
28
What is the primary goal of the dissemination phase in the intelligence cycle?
- To deliver intelligence to decision makers effectively [18].
29
What methods are used to disseminate intelligence?
- Written products and oral briefings are common methods [18].
30
What are the challenges associated with the dissemination of intelligence?
- Time constraints and understanding decision maker preferences are significant challenges [18, 19].
31
What is the purpose of the evaluation phase in the intelligence cycle?
- To gather feedback to refine and improve the intelligence process [19].
32
What are the challenges in the evaluation phase?
- Policymakers often prioritize immediate decisions over reflection and feedback [19].
33
How is intelligence used in warfare?
- Intelligence is used to gain an advantage over rivals, often tied to military functions during wartime, to achieve battlefield superiority [20, 21].
34
According to Sun Tzu, what is the supreme art of war?
- “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting,” achievable through superior intelligence [21].
35
How did North Vietnam capitalize on eroding U.S. public support during the Vietnam War?
- North Vietnam's strategy capitalized on eroding U.S
- public support and trust in government rather than achieving a military victory [21, 22].
36
What was the primary focus of U.S. intelligence operations during the Cold War?
- Countering the Soviet military threat [22].
37
What is meant by National Technical Means (NTM)?
- Satellites, planes, and radar systems [22, 23].
38
What was the purpose of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), created in 1961?
- To develop spy satellites [23].
39
How were intelligence platforms repurposed in the post-Cold War environment?
- They were repurposed for non-traditional military missions such as counterdrug operations and counterterrorism [24].
40
What is RSTA and how was it facilitated by drones?
- Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Target Acquisition, facilitated by drones, shortened the "sensor-to-shooter" process [25].
41
Name two criteria for threat assessment.
- Capability and intent [26].
42
Give examples of states with capability but no intent to harm US interests.
- NATO allies like Great Britain, France, and Germany [26].
43
Give examples of states/actors with intent but limited capability to harm US interests.
- Venezuela, Syria, the Islamic State, al-Qaeda [26, 27].
44
What were the primary focus areas of intelligence regarding the Soviet Union during the Cold War?
- Military weapons, capabilities, doctrine, and tactics [27].
45
How did the fall of the Berlin Wall and democratization of former Soviet satellite states impact intelligence focus?
- Transition to NATO standards reduced both capability and intent to harm US interests [27, 28].
46
What is a NIST and what is its role?
- National Intelligence Support Teams link theater-level commands to national agencies [29].
47
What is TENCAP?
- Tactical Exploitation of National Capabilities, providing operational and analytical support [29].
48
List five adversary traits that pose challenges to modern intelligence operations.
- Invisibility, Agility, Secrecy, Networks, and Motivation [29, 30].
49
Why do nonstate actors pose unique challenges to intelligence operations?
- Due to their decentralized, adaptive, and secretive nature [30, 31].
50
What is the role of the Collection Manager in intelligence operations?
- Acts as the "middleman" between intelligence analysts (producers of intelligence) and collectors (field operators collecting intelligence) [32].
51
What are the responsibilities of a Collection Manager?
- Communicating analysts' needs to collectors, generating collection requirements to address intelligence gaps, and providing feedback to collectors [32, 33].
52
How did analyst-collector communication change post-9/11?
- Analysts were deployed to the field to directly participate in source debriefings, allowing for immediate feedback [34].
53
What are RFIs in the context of intelligence collection?
- Requests for Information, used for broader, more strategic intelligence needs [35, 36].
54
What are the five steps in the generic collection requirements process?
1.Identify Intelligence Gaps
2. Generate Requirements
3. Task Resources
4. Collect and Report
5. Provide Feedback [35, 37].
55
What is the difference between using organic resources and RFIs in intelligence collection?
- Organic resources are utilized for immediate, localized intelligence needs
- RFIs are requests to external agencies(eg geospatial) required for broader, more strategic intelligence needs [36].
56
What are the five principal collection disciplines?
- HUMINT, SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, and OSINT [38].
57
Define HUMINT and its association.
- Intelligence collection through human sources, often associated with spies, espionage, and covert operations [38].
58
Give an example of overt HUMINT operations.
- Defense Attachés (DATT) operating openly by countries at embassies [38].
59
What is the difference between clandestine and covert HUMINT?
- Clandestine HUMINT is conducted by operations officers with official cover, while covert HUMINT is conducted by principal agents or foreign nationals without official cover [39].
60
Which country is considered the most significant espionage threat to the U.S. as of 2020?
- China [40].
61
Define SIGINT and its three divisions.
- Intelligence collection through intercepting electronic signals, divided into Communications Intelligence (COMINT), Electronic Intelligence (ELINT), and Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intelligence (FISINT) [41, 42].
62
What is COMINT?
- Interception of communication signals (e.g., telegraphs, telephones, radio, internet) [41].
63
What is ELINT?
- Collection of non-communication electronic signals (e.g., radar emissions) [41].
64
What is FISINT?
- Interception of signals from foreign instrumentation, such as missile telemetry [41, 42].
65
What is the role of the National Security Agency (NSA) in SIGINT?
- Manages COMINT, monitors foreign communication and electronic signals, and protects Department of Defense (DOD) information systems [42-45].
66
Define GEOINT.
- Intelligence derived from the analysis of geospatial data, including imagery, maps, and terrain [46, 47].
67
What are the key components of GEOINT?
- Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) and Geospatial Data Analysis [47, 48].
68
Name three applications of GEOINT in military and defense.
- Operational Planning, Battle Damage Assessment, and Surveillance and Reconnaissance [48, 49].
69
What is MASINT?
- Measurement and Signature Intelligence which utilizes physics, chemistry, and engineering principles to collect and analyze data [49, 50].
70
What is OSINT?
- Intelligence derived from publicly available information [50].
71
List four advantages of OSINT.
- Low Cost, Wide Availability, Speed, and Transparency [51].
72
What are the challenges of OSINT?
- Volume of Data, Verification, Legal and Ethical Constraints, and Bias in Sources [51, 52].
73
What is epistemology?
- The study of how we know what we know [53, 54].
74
What is the difference between facts and opinions?
- Facts are objective truths that can be falsified through observable evidence, while opinions are subjective beliefs that cannot be falsified [54, 55].
75
Define 'warrants of knowledge'.
- Warrants define the quality of empirical evidence supporting a claim [55, 56].
76
What are the strengths and weaknesses of personal experience as a warrant of knowledge?
- Strengths include providing a direct perspective; weaknesses include being anecdotal, limited, and prone to observer bias [56].
77
What is a scientific warrant?
- The most rigorous form of warrant, validated by experts through peer review [57].
78
Why is intelligence analysis considered neither purely art nor purely science?
- Because it addresses incomplete information and uncertainty, strives for precision, and focuses on falsifiability but lacks real-time peer review [57, 58].
79
What is the difference between correlation and causation?
- Correlation is two events occurring together in time and space without necessarily being causally related, while causation requires chronological priority, distinction from other causes, necessary connection, and consistency over time [59].
80
Define laws, theories, and hypotheses in the context of causal statements.
- Laws are deterministic and unvarying, theories are competing explanations for the same phenomena, and hypotheses are specific, testable statements derived from theories [60, 61].
81
What is anticipatory intelligence and how does it differ from predictive intelligence?
- Anticipatory intelligence aims to influence outcomes by enabling policymakers to act proactively, while predictive intelligence focuses on forecasting future events [62, 63].
82
What are some limits of prediction in intelligence analysis?
- Complex systems (butterfly effect), institutional issues (professionalization of analysis), and perceptual biases [63, 64].
83
What are organizational barriers in intelligence analysis?
- Stovepiping, inter-agency rivalries, and cultures of secrecy [65].
84
What are psychological barriers in intelligence analysis?
- Perceptual biases that distort how individuals process and interpret information [66].
85
Define cognitive bias.
- Errors in perception stemming from the sources of information we rely on to make judgments about the world [67].
86
What is confirmation bias?
- The tendency to seek information that supports prior beliefs [68].
87
What is the vividness of personal experience (narrative fallacy)?
- The belief that impactful anecdotal events are broadly generalizable [69].
88
What is mirror imaging?
- Assuming others think, act, or reason the same way as oneself [70].
89
What is fundamental attribution error?
- Attributing one’s own actions to situational factors but others' actions to dispositional traits [70, 71].
90
What is anchoring bias?
- Focusing on an initial piece of information as a baseline for interpretation [71].
91
What is normalization of deviance?
- Adjusting expectations of normalcy based on repeated deviations [72].
92
What is the fallacy of centralized direction?
- The belief that leadership in organizations is singular and top-down [72, 73].
93
What is the fallacy of big causes and big effects?
- The belief that significant events must have equally significant causes [73].
94
Define motivated bias.
- Arises when individuals actively want to believe certain things, driven by emotional and cognitive connections [74, 75].
95
How do motivated biases differ from cognitive biases?
- Motivated biases are emotionally charged and resistant to factual evidence [75].
96
How can political ideology act as a motivated bias in intelligence analysis?
- Prevents analysts from recognizing differences of opinion as healthy for democracy and creates polarizing views [76, 77].
97
How can religion act as a motivated bias in intelligence analysis?
- May lead to denial of legitimacy of coworkers’ beliefs and shape views about intelligence targets [77, 78].
98
Why is the suggestion to "balance" teams with equal representation of ideologies ineffective in addressing motivated biases?
- Because analysts with motivated biases are unlikely to change their views, especially if challenged by opposing ideologies [79].
99
What is the contemporary context of intelligence analysis in terms of risk management?
- Intelligence analysis involves managing risk by balancing the nature of the target and judging target capabilities and intentions [80, 81].
100
How do collection platforms influence analytic methods, and vice versa?
- Collection platforms influence analytic methods, and analytic methods can affect the types of data collected, creating a reciprocal relationship [82].
101
What is the 'commensurability problem' in intelligence analysis?
- Qualitative methods may struggle with scientific data, requiring a shared analytic vocabulary for meaningful interpretation [83, 84].
102
What is 'critical thinking' in intelligence analysis?
- Reflexivity in thinking (i.e., "thinking about thinking") and the ability to interrogate hidden motives and discern the origins of ideas [85, 86].
103
What are the seven categories of analytic techniques used in the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC)?
- Decomposition and Visualization, Idea Generation, Scenarios and Indicators, Hypothesis Generation and Testing, Assessing Cause and Effect, Challenge Analysis, and Conflict Management [87-90].
104
How does hypothesis generation and testing align intelligence analysis with principles of good social science?
- By specifying relationships between drivers and outcomes to make them empirically testable and falsifiable [88, 89].
105
What is decomposition in intelligence analysis?
- A method for breaking down broad intelligence taskings into smaller, manageable parts [91].
106
What are the advantages of using decomposition in intelligence analysis?
- Improved Task Management and Aids Decision-Making [92, 93].
107
What is a risk of decomposition, and how can it be mitigated?
- Over-narrowing the question; mitigated by using customer checklists [93, 94].
108
What is network analysis, and how is it used in intelligence?
- A graphical method used to represent relationships between intelligence targets and other actors or institutions, helping analysts understand the structure and interactions within complex organizations [95].
109
How can network analysis be combined with other techniques for advanced analysis?
- With case studies, decision trees and impact models, and statistical analysis [96, 97].
110
What is brainstorming, and what is its primary aim in the US Intelligence Community (IC)?
- A technique for generating creative ideas, primarily to mitigate the influence of participants’ prior mindsets [98, 99].
111
What is the difference between unstructured and structured brainstorming?
- Unstructured brainstorming promotes free-flowing idea generation, while structured brainstorming includes additional rules and moderation [99, 100].
112
What are 'scenarios' in intelligence analysis, and when are they particularly useful?
- Different causal pathways for future events, particularly useful in periods of large-scale changes and high uncertainty [101].
113
How do scenarios help analysts understand the future implications of various decisions?
- By allowing them to understand the contingent nature of social systems and the interplay of different choices [102].
114
What is the role of 'drivers' and 'assumptions' in developing scenarios?
- Drivers are key factors influencing the intelligence target’s decision-making, and assumptions assign varying levels or values to each driver to create multiple potential future pathways [103, 104].
115
What are 'indicators' in intelligence analysis, and what purpose do they serve?
- Metrics or measures used to observe and assess changes in human behavior, environmental conditions, or societal trends, representing broader or deeper activities [105].
116
What are four characteristics of effective indicators?
- Specificity, Reliability, Comparability Over Time, and Nonreducibility [106].
117
How are indicators used by nation-states and NGOs?
- To guide foreign aid distribution and assess state performance [107].
118
What is systems analysis, and what disciplines influenced its development?
- A method that examines the entirety of a system, considering how its parts form a whole, influenced by biology, computer science, mathematics, and political science [108].
119
What are the three interdependent factors in systems analysis, according to Robert Clark?
- Structure, Function, and Process [109].
120
Provide examples of systems analysis at the micro, meso, and macro levels.
- Micro Level: M1-A2 Abrams Main Battle Tank; Meso Level: Russia’s Air Defense System; Macro Level: International Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) [109-112].
121
What are the advantages of systems analysis?
- Holistic Perspective and Explaining Phenomena (Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts) [113].
122
What are the limitations of systems analysis?
- Complexity and Failure of Advanced Systems [114].
123
What is a case study, and what is it used for in intelligence analysis?
- An analytic method that examines one or more instances of a phenomenon in depth, exploring its components, used for hypothesis generation and testing, and cause-and-effect evaluation [115, 116].
124
Name five types of case studies identified by Harry Eckstein.
- Idiographic Case Studies, Disciplined Configurative Case Studies, Heuristic Case Studies, Plausibility Probe, and Critical Case Studies [117, 118].
125
What are some additional case study methods, such as the causal mechanisms approach and process tracing?
- Causal Mechanisms Approach, Process Tracing, and Nominal Comparison [118, 119].
126
What is quantitative analysis?
- Analysis based on evaluating relationships between variables using statistical tools [120].
127
What is the minimum sample size to be considered large-N research?
- 30 cases [120, 121].
128
What are common statistical methods used in quantitative analysis?
- Bivariate analysis (e.g., chi-square), logit and probit models, linear regression, and time-series analysis [121].
129
What was the German Tank Problem?
- The process of estimating German tank production during WWII using serial numbers from captured tanks for statistical inference [121, 122].
130
What is big data analysis?
- The integration of massive datasets to predict behavior and make inferences [123].
131
What was the Good Judgement Project (GJP)?
- A project developed by Philip Tetlock that trained individuals to become “Superforecasters" [124, 125].
132
What is a Red Team?
- A challenge analysis technique used to critically evaluate intelligence assessments or operational plans by adopting the perspective of an adversary [126, 127].
133
What are three functions of Red Teams in Intelligence?
- Challenge Preexisting Assumptions, Error Detection, and Identifying Vulnerabilities [128, 129].
134
What are the requirements for effective Red Teaming?
- Belief in Efficacy, Support from Leadership, and Adequate Time and Resources [130].
135
What are the challenges and limitations of Red Teams?
- Resistance to Findings, Leadership Constraints, and Cultural Barriers [131, 132].
136
What are Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)?
- Techniques used to formalize intelligence analysis processes and enhance clarity, consistency, and measurability in analysis [133, 134].
137
What is Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)?
- A structured analytical technique that eliminates less plausible explanations by comparing hypotheses against evidence [135].
138
List four critiques of SATs.
- Lack of Analytical Rigor, Biases and Paradoxes, Suppression of Creativity, and Over-standardization [136, 137].
139
What are the key characteristics of intelligence writing?
- Voice and Structure [138].
140
What are the key aspects of 'voice' in intelligence writing?
- Active Voice, Minimizing Qualifiers and Modifiers, and Avoiding Passive Voice [138, 139].
141
What are the key aspects of 'structure' in intelligence writing?
- BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front), Summarization, Adaptation for Report Type, Scope and Time Periods, Acknowledging Information Gaps, and Forecasting and Conditional Analysis [140-142].
142
What is BLUF?
- Bottom Line Up Front, where key findings or conclusions are presented in the first paragraph, ideally the first sentence [140].
