Black Swan Flashcards
What did the author describe as “black swan coming out of nowhere” with regards to Lebannon
Fighting broke out between the Christian and Muslim population.
After centuries of peace
What is the nature of history according to the text?
From the book Black Swan
History is opaque and only the outcomes are visible, not the underlying processes
The text emphasizes the disconnect between historical events and their generators.
What are the three ailments of the human mind when engaging with history?
From the book Black Swan
- The illusion of understanding
- The retrospective distortion
- The overvaluation of factual information
These ailments collectively form what the author calls the triplet of opacity.
Define the ‘illusion of understanding’ in the context of history.
The belief that one knows what is happening in a world that is more complicated than it appears
This ailment leads to misconceptions about historical events.
What does ‘retrospective distortion’ refer to?
From the book Black Swan
The tendency to assess historical matters more clearly and organized after they have occurred
This is likened to viewing events through a rearview mirror.
What is meant by ‘overvaluation of factual information’?
The tendency to place excessive importance on factual data and the insights of authoritative figures
This can lead to a misinterpretation of history, especially when categories are overly simplified.
What is the Problem of Induction?
From Black Swan
Everything works and goes right until it doesnt
Eg after the Neoploleon wars, there was a long peace and people thought was the disappearance of destructive conflicts. Yet, Suprise!
What is Mediocristan characterized by?
From Black Swan
The tyranny of the collective, the routine, the obvious, and the predicted.
What is Extremistan characterized by?
From Black Swan
The tyranny of the singular, the accidental, the unseen, and the unpredicted.
Fill in the blank: Mediocristan is where we must endure the tyranny of the _______.
[collective]
Fill in the blank: Extremistan is where we are subjected to the tyranny of the _______.
[singular]
What is empiricism?
Empiricism is a philosophical theory that states that knowledge comes primarily from sensory experience.
True or False: Empiricism emphasizes the role of innate ideas in the acquisition of knowledge.
False
What is the fallacy of assuming that the absence of evidence for large events means they cannot occur?
From Black Swan
This is known as naïve empiricism.
Naïve empiricism leads to confusion between the absence of evidence and evidence of absence.
What does the term ‘naïve empiricism’ refer to?
From Black Swan
It refers to the tendency to seek instances that confirm one’s beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
For example, people highlight successes to support their theories while ignoring failures.
Can a series of corroborative facts be considered evidence?
From Black Swan
No, a series of corroborative facts is not necessarily evidence for the nonexistence of contrary facts.
For example, seeing white swans does not confirm the nonexistence of black swans.
What is the implication of observing a black swan?
From Black Swan
It proves that not all swans are white.
This illustrates the idea that one observation can disprove a universal claim.
What does finding a single malignant tumor indicate?
From Black Swan
It proves that you have cancer.
However, the absence of a tumor does not guarantee that one is cancer-free.
What is the narrative fallacy?
From Black Swans
- It is our tendency to create explanations and impose logical links on sequences of facts
- Increasing the impression of understanding but potentially distorting reality.
How do myths and stories help humans cope with complexity?
Black Swans
Myths and stories simplify complexity, help process emotions, and provide models for resilience and meaning. Giving us a feeling of control
What do narratives instinctively do when processing information?
Black Swans
- They reduce complexity by imposing causality(causes)
- Often leading to oversimplifications or misinterpretations.
How do personal experiences affect attitudes toward risks like motorcycle riding?
Black swans
A relative’s motorcycle accident shapes perception more than impersonal statistics, highlighting our bias for vivid, personal narratives
“One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic,” Stalin
What is silent evidence
Black Swans
Silent evidence is the absence of information about those who fail, which can mislead people into believing in miracles.
Biographies often link success to certain traits but ignore the failures of others who shared similar traits, underestimating the role of luck in determining outcomes.
How does silent evidence apply to history?
Black Swans
- Silent evidence affects our view of history
- Where we only see the survivors’ accounts of events.
- Losers, whether people or ideas, do not get recorded,
- Creating a skewed perception of past events.
