Intertia Flashcards
Age of Dithering
State of indecisive agitation
Scientifically well-established by mid-1960s:
- CO2 traps heat and has a warming effect on the climate (going back to 19th C)
- CO2 from burning fossil fuels could accumulate in atmosphere and drive warming
- 1958: (Charles Keeling; Mauna Loa); confirms humans can & are altering atmospheric chemistry
- 1965: Reported climate change risks to U.S. President
By early-1980s, high-degree of scientific confidence that:
- Atmospheric CO2 will reach double pre-industrial levels in 21st C
- Could push temps above 1.5oC (and possibly much higher)
- Growing media attention
1-2 C warming could
- Trigger major melting on Greenland + west Antarctica (and associated sea level rise)
- Produce drought in many populous and agriculturally significant regions
1988: James Hanson
- Discussed multiple scenarios for warming risks
In 1990s
- Strong statements about causation by national academies of science of US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada, China, India, Brazil, etc.
- Climate science growing ever more clear about drivers, risks, and urgency of big GHG emission cuts
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (est. 1988) (IPCC)
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) + UN Environmental Program (UNEP)
- ** key organization for assessing and communicating state of earth systems science **
3 Working Groups of IPCC
- Science
- Impact, Adaption
- Mitigation
1990 IPCC report:
- Extent of “warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude of natural climate variability….”
2007 IPCC Report:
- “Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, the benefits of mitigation actions [most of all, cutting GHGs] initiated now may result in significant avoided climate change only after several decades.
- This means that mitigation actions need to start in the short-term in order to have a medium- and longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies.”
- Fossil energy related industries have exact opposite goal (working to ensure lock-in)
2019 Special IPCC Report on 1.5 C
- Positive feedbacks get really dangerous beyond this point + window closing to get atmospheric GHG concentrations to a level where this could be possible
- NEED annual emissions cut by ~ ½ by 2030 for any hope
- BUT current path: 16% increase (from 2010) by 2030 (based on commitments)
- This alone will ‘lock in’ warming of 2.7 C
Who is the Denial Industry
- Range of industries opposing various environmental regulations (e.g. acid rain, pesticides, etc.)
- Big funding for think-tanks leading attacks on climate science
How? Denial Industry
- Distort evidence and/or discredit scientific expertise to a degree that leaves many confused and doubtful about the level of scientific confidence and/or implications
- Sow confusion and doubt, and inaction on fossil fuel consumption
Mark Carney
- Cutting CO2 emissions to level needed to contain warming to 1.5oC “would render the vast majority of reserves ‘stranded’ — oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable…”
Big Coal, Oil, and Gas: fears of ‘stranded assets’ sometimes referred to as ‘carbon bubble’
Clear recognition that global disciplines to drastically limit production & consumption (caps or heavy taxes) would cost Big Coal, Oil, and Gas trillions of $$ of known assets
What does mitigation need
sharp and strong descent
Biggest source of electricity on world scale
- Coal 64%
- Biggest source of Emissions
Negatives of Coal
- Biggest source of emissions
- Needs biggest and fastest decline
- Will blow 1.5 target and make impossible
Government plans of fossil fuels
- Double volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than target for hope of limiting warming to 1.5C (and far more than consistent w/ 2oC) –
o 460% more coal
o 83% more gas
o 29% more oil
India electricity total emission history
- Far below P.C. average
- Significant growth since 1990
- Major coal consumption
China electricity total emission history
- 1/3 of world electricity
- Majority Coal
Oil and Natural Gas History
- Top 20 oil fields discovered before 1979
Middle East and Oil
- ½ oil reservoirs and much larger shares of conventional reserves
Melting poles and oil
- Estimated arctic contains at least 22% of all undiscovered oil and gas
- Race to control previously unreachable oil and gas
Unconventional Oil Reserves
- difficult + costly
- energy intensive (lower EROI)
- environmentally damaging
Burtynsky
- Biggest open pit mining project in the world
- Enough carbon to be game over for safe levels (James Hansen)
Orinco Oil Belt
- Venezuela
- Different sort of heavy oil
- Double then Alberta
1st COP (Conference of Parties)
1995
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
1992
Precedent Montreal Protocol
- 1987
- Recognition certain chemicals were burning holes in the ozone layer
- Developed countries differential responsibility for rapid phase out ozone depleting chemicals
KYOTO Protocol
- 1997 / 155 Nations
- Rich countries with greater relative contributions to the problems must make relatively bigger and faster cuts
2 Commitments of Kyoto
- Developing Countries
- Developed Countries
Developing countries commitment to Kyoto
- China and India
- No commitment to emission cuts at outset
- recognition: small % of GHGs over preceding century
Developed countries commitment to Kyoto
- Varying targets to either cut or slow the rate of increase of CO2 and other GHG emissions
- By 2000: back to 1990 levels
- By 2012: cuts 5.2% vs 1990
Kyoto and 2001
- USA withdrawn from KYOTO
- George Bush won election and refused to harm economy
- Australia followed
Kyoto and 2005
- More than vague promises
- Example, Canada promised 6% cut but was 33% above target in 2005
Kyoto and 2012
- Repeated annual COP meetings before and after 2012 to est. stronger successor
Paris Agreement
- 2015
- GHG emission reduction targets 2 to 1.5
- Promise of dynamic cycle of increasingly ambitious targets
- Nations check in + strengthen commitments over time (+ role of climate finance)
2021 – Glasgow “phase up-phase down”
- China pledged to stop financing external coal power development
- ‘unburnable’ has been acknowledged, primarily around coal
