Inequality Flashcards
Climate change and extreme weather
Location
- India has the highest population that is affected
- Delhi worst air quality
Arid and semi arid tropics with extreme weather
- Hotter and drier
- North Africa and West Asia
- Increased water stress
- South Asia is most populated under water stress
Weather change and agriculture
- Reduced soil moisture & groundwater levels
- Reduced growing seasons, yields (30% declines in Africa by 2050), & arable land
- Increased desertification risks
- Reduced food security
- Of the 3 B people who live in rural areas in Global South ~2.5 B are involved in agriculture
Sahel
- tropical steppe / savannah
- grassland w/ widely spaced trees & shrubs
- extreme seasonality of precipitation
- Vast majority of African agriculture rainfed
In short, hotter and drier conditions:
- reducing areas where agriculture and grazing are possible
- straining capacity of drought-adapted vegetation to rebound from long dry seasons
Lake Chad
- 1/10 volume of 1960s
- Almost gone
Himalayas + Hindu Kush – melting ice mass has big short- and long-term implications
- SHORT-TERM: heightened risks of flooding, massive inundation with summer melt-season
- LONGER-TERM: river volumes falling in dry season
- half the world’s population depend on seasonal melt from high-elevation snow and ice
Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region
- Glaciers affect river basins w/ ~2 B people
- 250 M live in region
- 1.65 B rely on rivers it feeds if warming kept to 1.5 C
- on course for 2 /3 glacial ice (or more) gone by 2100
Glacierized large-scale drainage basins
- Cover ~1 /4 of all land (not including Greenland & Antarctica)
- With ~ 1 /3 of world’s population
Why is glacial meltwater important?
- modulates the seasonality of stream/river flow
- ‘can compensate for seasons and years of otherwise low flow or droughts’ in lowland areas downstream
- affects freshwater availability (drinking + irrigation), hydropower (i.e. dams), sediment transport, ecosystem function
Bolivia
- dramatic changes in freshwater availability
- changing hydrology + rainfall patterns + diversions (irrigation & mining
Significant declines evident + continuing mass loss expected in 21st C
- releases water from long-term glacial storage
- increases annual glacial runoff, up to a point (‘peak water’)
- INCREASING FLOOD RISKS WHILE MELTING
mega-deltas, low-lying coastal areas, and small island developing states (SIDS)
- abundance of rising seas
- many heavily populated deltaic areas esp. sensitive to sea-level rise
- 20% of humanity lives within 30 km of the sea
For decades, climate scientists warning for tropical storms
- very straightforward drivers
- warmer air churning over warmer oceans intensifies energy
- warmer air can hold more moisture than cooler air
- atmosphere contains more moisture (Clausius-Clapeyron equation: 1 oC warming = 7% more water vapour over oceans)
Small island Developing States
- total pop 63 M
- consistent appeals for mitigation and support for adaptation and UNFCCC
- some displacement and appeals for climate refugee status has begun
By 2050, sea-level rise on present course for SIDS
- high tides permanently above land now home to >150 m people
- average annual coastal floods above land now home to ~300 m people
- without advanced sea defence systems, people in these areas likely permanently displaced by sea level rise by 2050
countries with the lowest GHG emissions facing the first and worst impacts
- hotter and drier
- low lying coastal areas at risk
- declining sky reservoirs
Adaptation
- Responding to impacts from unfolding
- Sea Defense
- Heat and storm proofing electricity grids, roads, and other infrastructure
- Risk assessment and emergency preparedness
- Disaster response capacities (fire fighting, evacuation)
- Agriculture innovations
Bangladesh
- 170 M population
- GDP US 7400 (world bank)
- One of the world’s most densely populated countries
- Much of the land/population in deltaic plains of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers (living at or close to sea level)
Netherlands
- 17.5 M population
- GDP US 74,000 (world bank)
- Also extremely high risk of coastal flooding
- ¼ of land and ½ population, including Amsterdam, below sea level
- Worlds most sophisticated sea defense infrastructure
Maeslant Barrier
- Biggest moving flood barrier
- Can withstand storm ride of 5 meters
Engineering challenges greatly magnified by sea-level rise
- Delta vulnerable to sea level
- Huge impacts “on all aspects that are relevant to delta management in a rather short time”
- Calls for prolonged and massive investments in construction and maintenance
New York city
- Sandy (2012) Ida (2021)
- Both >60 Billion
- Very wet future
- Potential 119 Billion sea wall
MITIGATION
- Reduce the magnitude of further changes
- cutting GHG emissions + conservation + ecological restoration
- Requesting geoengineering responses
Historic emissions
- USA and Canada 5% pop held 33% worlds emissions
- Last 2 decades China has boomed above most countries for total, how ever around half of the average per capita emissions
- USA and Canada 3x per person amount
China Historic Emissions
China has biggest share of growth since 1990 27% total 2018
India Historic Emissions
India, significant growth since 1990, far below world average
USA Historic Emissions
USA, biggest emissions per capita, stable level
EU Historic Emissions
EU, large share but slowly declining
Unevenness of carbon footprint
- Richest 10% 60:1 per capita
- Poorest population 10% of emissions
- Richest 1% 175:1 per capita
- Huge gap between the two
UNFCCC politics
- First and foremost: mitigation (but elusive binding commitments)
- While mitigation is crucial to expand adaptive possibilities, support needed for adaptation’
COP 15 Copenhagen (2009)
Industrialized countries pledged $100 B/year in ‘climate finance’ to lower income countries by 2020
COP 21 Paris (2015)
`Acknowledgement that ‘slow onset’ changes are bringing ‘irreversible and permanent loss and damage’ (e.g. heat, aridity, sea-level rise beyond prospect of adaptation)
Oxfam
A large share of climate funding from industrialized to low income countries has come in the form of loans that have to be repaid with interest (really only ~1/3 claimed)
Consistent failure to live up to climate finance pledges
- more promises to reach $100 B target
- industrialized countries: strong resistance to discussing reparations for ‘loss and damage’
- fears of legal and financial responsibility into the future (i.e. being sued)
