International Conferences on Climate Change: Unlikely To Succeed? Flashcards
arguments suggesting that international conferences on climate change are unlikely to succeed
Rio 1992
Kyoto 1997
Paris 2015
arguments suggesting that international conferences on climate change are NOT unlikely to succeed
Rio 1992
Kyoto 1997
Paris 2015
Rio 1992: failures
did not take into account the fact that emissions by developing states would increase rapidly as their economic growth accelerated
merely a set of recommendations for further action, its rulings and requirements are not legally binding, so it seems to have limited effectiveness
the agreements reached at Rio lacked ambition and were not legally binding
too many different positions made agreement difficult to reach, developed and developing states disagreed over the responsibility for tackling climate change
scientific evidence suggests that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases, which are the by-products of burning fossil fuels, the consumption of fossil fuels began in the late-18th century with the Industrial Revolution
countries industrialised at different rates and some countries in the developing world are still industrialising, but the developed states were the earliest to industrialise, and they have therefore produced a greater share of greenhouse gases
for example, in the 1990s, the USA produced about 25% of the world’s total carbon-dioxide emissions, compared to China’s 14%, despite the fact that the American population accounted for less than 5% of the total world population while China’s accounted for 20%
therefore, it would seem right that developed states should bear greater responsibility for the reduction in carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide levels, especially when they have had longer to enjoy the benefits of industrialisation
the was used as an argument by developing states in 1992 to suggest that developed states are more responsible for climate change and should, therefore, take more action themselves, which has prevented international cooperation on the environment because many developing states have refused to cooperate unless the developed states take more responsibility
for example, in the 1990s, China argued that it should not accept emissions targets because, as a developing country, it was not responsible for the damage done by other countries industrialising earlier
but developed states argue that they cannot be held responsible for pollution produced in the past, when no one knew this would cause global warming
they argue that reduction targets should be set according to current rather than historical levels of emissions
Rio 1992: successes
172 countries represented, 108 countries sent heads of government/heads of state, 2400 representatives of NGOs attended – largest ever environmental conference held up to this point
main decisions reached – the Convention of Biological Diversity, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Principles for the Sustainable Management of Forests, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Agenda 21 (UN programme of action from Rio)
UNFCCC – an international environmental treaty negotiated at the Earth Summit in Rio, Brazil in 1992
created as a mechanism for developing global environmental policy, an international treaty that set up a process through which future international negotiations on climate change could take place
as a direct result of the UNFCCC, there have been two major further agreements; the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement
signatory parties have met every year to assess progress in dealing with climate change, parties to the treaty have to make national inventories of their sources of CO2 emissions and possible ways CO2 emissions could be absorbed
an important step in the development of global environmental policy that paved the way for the adoption of legally binding targets at Kyoto
Kyoto 1997: failures
continued disagreement between developed and developing states
the US initially agreed to binding targets at Kyoto in 1997, but revoked its signature, arguing that China had become the greatest net emissions producer, so it was unfair to expect the USA to make reductions when other countries were causing more damage to the environment
carbon trading agreed under Kyoto is open to abuse and allows richer states to avoid reducing their emissions
the Protocol did not come into force until 2005 – when Russia ratified the treaty – because it required signatories to be responsible for at least 55% of 1990 emissions
cutting emissions by on average 5% is not enough to stop global warming, more needed to be done and the Kyoto Protocol was not enough
the USA, the largest producer of greenhouse gases at the time, withdrew from the Protocol in 2001
India and China did not sign the agreement, but are significant producers of greenhouse gases
excluding developing countries, which have become significant polluters, from binding targets has compromised the effectiveness of Kyoto
carbon dioxide levels are four times higher than they were in the 1990s, suggesting that the Protocol has been ineffective
Kyoto 1997: successes
192 parties signed up to the Kyoto Protocol, 83 countries ratified it in their own nation
the Protocol ran until 2012 and in 2012, at the Doha Conference, the binding targets of the Protocol were extended beyond 2012 for 37 countries
paved the way for the introduction of legally binding emission targets
requirements of states were determined on the basis of equity and in accordance with states’ ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ and respective capabilities
states that had contributed the most to global warming, had industrialised earlier or were more developed were expected to accept greater reductions in their emissions, while developing states were not expected to reduce theirs - reduced disagreement between states as developing states were much more willing to adhere to this agreement
the Kyoto Protocol, under which developed countries agreed to cut emissions by at least 5.2% on 1990 levels between 2008–12
the EU was given a target of 8% and the USA 7%
flexibility mechanisms allowed states to engage in carbon trading to meet their targets
introduced the first legally binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
flexible targets and carbon trading made it easier for states to agree to binding targets
carbon trading promotes investment by richer countries in poorer ones
Paris 2015: failures
doubts over whether the USA would ratify the Agreement – President Trump indicated he would not and has since withdrawn from the Agreement
states can set their own targets for cutting emissions, which are likely to be lower than needed for keeping the rise in global temperatures to just 1.5°C
no enforcement mechanisms or penalties if states fail to take action
climate change denial in the West – in 2012, Donald Trump argued that China had invented the notion of climate change in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive
foreign affairs warned that the reversal of climate change policy is under President Trump could bring about a global knock-on effect, pushing the world towards harsh nationalism and reducing international cooperation concerning the environment
upon election, Trump published an America First Energy Plan indicating that he would overturn President Obama’s climate action plan and stating that his administration would take advantage of the estimated US$50 trillion in untapped shale oil and natural gas reserves on US oil in an effort to reduce the USA’s energy dependency
in June 2017, Trump officially withdrew the USA from the Paris agreement stating that the USA would “begin negotiations to re-enter either the Paris accord or entirely new transaction on terms that are fair to the United States”
Paris 2015: successes
the 21st conference since Rio in 1992
195 countries represented and by April 2016, 174 countries had signed the Paris Agreement
long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change
global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries
undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science
every country to submit five-year plans on how to cut greenhouse gas emissions
China participated in this agreement, enabling more ambitious targets to be agreed
example – as a party to the Paris Agreement, Nigeria has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030 and to pursue a 45% reduction if sufficient international support is received
intends to achieve this by ending gas flaring (binding of excess gas from oil and gas production), increasing the use of renewable energy and championing reforestation efforts
