Inductive Arguments Flashcards
What is the difference between a deductive and inductive argument?
- Deductive: creating inferences by going from general premises to specific conclusions (top-down reasoning)
- Inductive: takes specific conclusions and uses them to create general inferences (bottom-up reasoning)
What does it mean for an argument to be strong?
Provides probable evidence for the conclusion that is presented
What does it mean for an argument to be cogent?
An inductive argument that contains true premises
What are the various types of inductive arguments?
Causal, sign, generalization, and analogy
What is a causal argument?
Looks for cause-effect connections rather than patterns
What is a sign argument?
Conclusions are drawn about phenomena based on events that precede or co-exist with, but do not cause, a subsequent event
What is a generalization argument?
Draws conclusions based on recurring patterns or repeated relationships
What is an analogy argument?
Involves comparison by looking at how alike two concepts are
What is a statistical generalization?
An inference made about a population based on features of a sample
How do you identify whether a statistical generalization is strong?
Look at the criteria of both sample size and representativeness of said sample
What is the law of small numbers?
Extreme outcomes are more likely when considering a small number of cases
Why is correlation not enough for causation?
Two conditions may appear together but not cause each other, as the presence of a third underlying variable is a possibility
How do you set up a randomized experimental study?
Create a study in which you assign the subjects to treatment groups using random assignment
How do you set up a prospective study?
Create an observational study in which subjects are followed over time to observe future outcomes
How do you set up a retrospective study?
Create an observation study in which subjects are selected and then observe their previous conditions or behaviors
What are the strengths of a randomized experimental study?
Creates the most confidence in the casual claim because participants are randomly selected and sample is representative
What are the weaknesses of a randomized experimental study?
It can be immoral
What are the strengths of a prospective study?
Does not present the same moral problems as a randomized study
What are the weakness of a prospective study?
Can have cofounding factors, be lengthy and expensive, and samples are not random/representative
What are the strengths of a retrospective study?
Easier than prospective when the condition is rare or we don’t know what causes some effect, also chepaer
What are the weaknesses of a retrospective study?
Subject to problem of cofounding factors, plus sample is not random/representative
What is concomitant variation?
The degree to which a presumed cause and a presumed effect occur or vary together
What is regression to the mean?
The tendency of extreme results on a variable to be followed by, or associated with, less extreme scores
What is inference to the best explanation?
The inductively strong argument form
- Ex. We have observed some phenomenon known as A. B provides the best explanation for A. Therefore, B must also be true.
What are the standards of inference to the best explanation?
- Does it explain all relevant observations?
- Is it deep enough?
- Is it powerful?
- Is it falsifiable?
- Is it modest and simple?
- Is it conservative?
What is an argument from analogy?
Depends on the existence of an analogy, or similar, between two things or states of affairs
