individuals and psychology Flashcards
fundamental attribution error - kahneman + renshon
i am forced into hostile behaviour by circumstances / doing hostile behaviour because youre aggressive
risk tolerance under pressure
- frequent aversion to cutting losses
- sunk-cost fallacy
- usually after war termination there is a ‘gambling for resurrection’
- ^^ make war more likely
waltz - man, state and war
- human nature is constant
- war varies
- human nature does not cause war
Marx
“Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past.”
unitary actor assumption
- state leaders are only interested in maximising welfare of state
challenge - The “Miracle of the House of Brandenburg”- 5 January 1762
- Tsarina Elizabeth dies, Peter III withdraws Russian armies and signs treaty with Frederick the great
Otto von Bismarck
- Complex system of alliances
- Consciously avoided war
- Alone restrained Germany
leader beliefs
- different people have different beliefs
- can affect their threat perception
whitlark
willingness to use force depends on beliefs about consequences of nuclear proliferation and probability of deterring specific proliferator once armed
presidents attitudes towards proliferation
- kennedy = proliferation pessimist
- feared china - considered “action to deny the ChiComs a nuclear capability”
- johnson = proliferation optimist
- Not worried about China - No consideration of action
norm entrepreneurs
Agents whose purpose is to advance a particular shared value, mutual interest or a particular institution within a particular social system (like state system)
henri Dunant
- founded int’l committee of red cross
- helped write first geneva convention
- relief to the wounded without any distinction as to nationality;
- neutrality (inviolability) of medical personnel and medical establishments and units;
- the distinctive sign of the red cross on a white ground
intermediaries
key figures who broker deals between parties
Grynaviski - intermediaries
- crucial for cooperation when information is low and contact between the parties is sparse
- explaining others’ interests, providing reassurances, and managing identity issues.
key figures who broker deals between parties