Impacts Exam V. 2

Question 1

Brief timeline of earth and the human activity on it?

Answer 1

4.5bn yrs => 544 Nvm.
Cambrian explosion => life diversity. Followed periods & epoches lasting circa 10-1 m years. Holocene since 0.01m due to agri.

2017 - geologist: ANTHROPOCENE - due changes in surface of planet

Question 2

What does the Anthropocene entail? Material?

Answer 2

Out impacts are penetrating layers of earth - influence now spans space to crust (planetary boundaries)

Materials: Fly ash, plastics, metals, GHG concentrations.

Question 3

Our impact in timeframe?

Answer 3

15 min pre midnight:

• AFOLU, warming, sea level rise, ozone erosion, ocean acidification, extinction rate.

Question 4

How do we measure the human impact on the planet?

Answer 4

1. Human footprint
2. Burden of planetary illness
3. Planetary boundary approach

Question 5

HUMAN FOOTPRINT?

Answer 5

Multidimensional index of human pressure on planet.

Broken up into 823 ecoregions of which majority degraded and footprint increased.

Question 6

Burden of Planetary Illness (4)?

Answer 6

= indicators of our influence

• POPULATION: Took 200,000 years to get to 1st bn in 1804 – now adding 1bn every 11-13 years.
• CONSUMPTION: 20kg fish; 40kg meat/year
• LAND: 1% soil lost/year - every meal = 10kg of soil = 35 football fields forest lost/min
• Animals: 6th mass extinction; 8 species per hour and 58% decline in vertebrate abundance.

Question 7

Planetary Boundary Approach?

Answer 7

“Safe Operating Space” = based on idea of “Planetary boundaries” = space to crust human influence: the layers naturally create a safe operating space for us, but the extent to which we can manipulate these before it falls away is questioned.

• This conceptual framework shows us safe operating space, zone of uncertainty, position of threshold and areas of high risk.

You have:

• X axis: control variable (pertubation)
• Y function for that system.
• We monitor to see what happens when we mess with things – tipping points, vs. diminishing functions of a system.

Question 8

The 7 planetary boundaries?

Answer 8

Red (high risk zone)

1. Biochemical Flows
2. Biosphere integrity – genetic & functional diversity

Yellow (uncertainty):

3. Climate Change
4. Land-system change

Green – safe still

5. Freshwater use
6. Ocean acidification
7. Stratospheric ozone depletion

CC = 1 result of our influence - exacerbates other conditions.

Question 9

World Economic Forum top 10 Impacts and Likelihood Risks for Global 10-year time horizon?

Answer 9

Same thing here as planetary. Put’s into context.

Of the top 10 global risks in terms of likelihood: 2) extreme weather 6) natural catastrophe 7) Failure Climate Change

Of the top 10 global risks in terms of impact: 5) failure climate change; 10) biodiversity loss

However, the CC directly exhasterbates the more highly ranked: interstate conflict, crisis, water crisis, disease, critical infrastructure.

Question 10

Definition climate change?

Answer 10

A change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer

UNFCC specifies human attribution above & beyond natural variability.

Question 11

Main trends of Climate Change?

Answer 11

Sea ice is melting, C02 concentrations, surface temp; heat content upper ocean; sea level; extreme events (mean/variance); unequivocal human influence.

Question 12

Definition of Impacts?

Answer 12

Effects on:

• natural and human systems
• lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure

of interaction extreme weather, climate events and of climate change with vulnerability of exposed system.

(physical impacts - floods/droughts/sea level = subset)

Question 13

Definition of Hazard?

Answer 13

The potential occurrence of an event or trend or impact that may:

• cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts
• damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources.

Question 14

Definition of Exposure?

Answer 14

The presence of something (e.g., people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets) in places and settings that could be adversely affected.

Question 15

Definition of Vulnerability?

Answer 15

The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.

• sensitivity or susceptibility to harm
• lack of capacity to cope and adapt

Question 16

Definition of Risk?

Answer 16

Potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain

• often represented = probability of occurrence of hazardous events * by impacts if occurs
• results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard.

Question 17

Definition of Adaptation and the two types?

Answer 17

Process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.

• seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
  1) Incremental adaptation: Adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale.
  2) Transformational adaptation: Adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a human or natural system.

Question 18

Definition of Resilience?

Answer 18

Capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event/trend/disturbance,

responding/reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure,

+ maintaining capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.

Question 19

How do we know and keep track of everything? Evidence and Communication?

Answer 19

Developed a calibrated language that communicates the strength of scientific understanding

Question 20

What is Climate Change awareness like?

Answer 20

• High levels in developed world (Europe, Japan, America)

- Never heard of in developing (Africa, Asia, Middle East) – but here perceived biggest threat.

Question 21

What happens when you move from Climate Change trends to Impacts? Evidence of impacts?

Answer 21

Earth system = three components: Climate (SOCC), Natural and Human.

Impacts = SOCC effects on natural & human => less and less scientific – more qualitative matters of opinion

(=IPCC ranking & language)

• Still limited robust attribution studies and meta-analyses that link biological and physical responses to anthropogenic climate change
• Why detection and attribution are so important

Question 22

How can we detect and attribute/what do we look at?

Answer 22

Assessing the causal relationship between one or more drivers and a responding system by direct and indirect links.

Differentiate between climate change impacts (easier) and anthropogenic climate change impacts (more difficult).

2 broad approaches:

• pattern analysis
• regression analysis

huge uncertainty components – big focus to try and capture, hugely challenging problem.

Question 23

What are the main challenges related to detection and attribution?

Answer 23

1. Observations
2. Process understanding
3. Need high quality long-term data,
4. Processes can be non-linear
5. local and non-local (both space and time)

IPCC bases on “synthesis of findings in the scientific literature” = has to find and correct potential biases - no own research.

Important for risk management.

Question 24

What are the main observed impacts denoted by the IPCC?

Answer 24

IPCC synthesizes finding in a massive tabulation exercise where they rank everything by confidence, likelihood, attribution and trend.

MAIN IMPACTS:

GHG; Global mean surface temp; GMST - top of the list; thereafter follows sectoral & regions

Question 25

Observed Impacts for Sector: Freshwater Resources?

Answer 25

1. Permafrost warming and thawing in high-latitude/elevation regions (HC)
2. Changing precipitation/melting snow and ice altering hydrological systems - affecting water resources, quantity & quality (HC)
3. Glaciers shrinking almost worldwide affecting runoff and water resources downstream (MC)

Question 26

Global supply of freshwater?

Answer 26

Saltwater = 97.5%; Freshwater = 2.5%.

Total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems & humans = 1% of freshwater resources = 0.01% of all water!

70-92% is used for growing food and raising animals. Water footprint of animal > crop same nutritional value.

Different regions = different evaporation & runoff = uneven distribution of freshwater + no management of rivers & lakes as cross many borders.

+ growing population, diminishing resources.

(Mekong river supports 6 countries = ½ pop fish & rice; 1/3 GDP) and poaching + river fragmentation (dams, downstream = ecosystem impairment, collapsed fisheries).

Question 27

Key Risks (IPCC) to freshwater resources?

Answer 27

IPCC:

1. Freshwater related risks of CC increase significantly with increasing GHG concentrations (RE; HA) – fraction affected by major river floods & water scarcity.
2. CC over 21st century => reduce renewable surface water & groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions (RE, HA)
3. Intensify completion for water among sectors (LE, MA).

Question 28

Adaptation necessities & policies to manage freshwater scarcity?

Answer 28

IPCC:

1. Adaptive water management techniques + scenario planning.
2. Learning based approaches
3. Flexible & low-regret solutions

can help create resilience to uncertain hydrological changes and impacts.

Lecturer, need:

• Need science to underpin policy decisions.
• Global bodies uniting to address global issues
• Demand related shifts - cutting back on agriculture (water productivity) – no policy addresses this

Question 29

Observed Impacts for Sector: Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems?

Answer 29

1. Shifting geographic ranges, activities, altered abundance. Increased tree mortality. HC
2. Most recent observed terrestrial species extinctions have not been attributed to climate change. HC
3. Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts, wind storms, fires, and pest outbreaks. MC
4. Contributed to the extinction of some species. MC

Question 30

How do we measure how CC impacting the biological world?

OPSC

EPM
AMP
DE
BSE

Answer 30

Uncertain about observations but broadly classify into 4 categories/processes with their own organising units:

1. Organisms: evolution (genetic diversity), physiology (activity rates), morphology (body size & shape);

CC = reduction in body size; adopting thermal; hybridization.

2. Population: abundance, migration, phenology (timing in relation to climate);

CC = 80% population reducing size of pop; timing of life-history processes (budding, spawning, migration).

3. Species: distribution habitat quantity/quality, extinction;

CC = (tropicalisation: warmer = tropical species come; and borealization – pine forest going into tundra); things are moving!! – up mountains etc.

4. Communities: biomass, species interaction, ecosystems;

CC = changes in behaviour, processes; ecosystem invasion and species competition.

Question 31

What is the background extinction rate?

Answer 31

1000x faster in our era than in the past.

Extinction: 7.9% due to CC; RCP 8.5 = 16%

Question 32

What is the other key driver impacting the biological world?

Answer 32

LAND USE = one of key drivers of biodiversity loss (32% species richness)

Not independent of CC; depends on future scenario – some strategies for mitigation have worse effects on biodiversity: RCP – 2.6 = 2nd worse biodiversity outcome! (vegetation for biofuel).

Question 33

What are the results of CC on the Biological World?

Answer 33

82% of 94 processes that were looked at show response to CC across the 4 broad categories with only 1 degree warming.

And probably very conservative! (holes in science & interconnection of processes)

Question 34

What are the parallels that can be drawn between CC biological world and human safety/society?

Answer 34

The effects on the biological world are interesting because:

connection between human health & environment – foundation of our society = ecosystems.

CC => ecological regime shifts & ecosystem function (coral => algea; tundra => boreal)

Implications for human safety – strong evidence for societal collapse.

Question 35

Monetary measurements of Biological World – Natural Capital?

Answer 35

Value of ecosystem services (natural and public good):
1999 = 30tr/year
2014 = 130 tr/year

4-20 tr lost during this period during due to ecosystem degradation

GDP: only half of what ecosystems are providing; losing 1/3-1/5 of GDP due to ecosystem degradation.

Question 36

Terrestrial & Freshwater Ecosystems – adaptation?

Answer 36

1) Maintaining genetic diversity
2) assisted species migration & 3) reduction of other stressors

can reduce but not eliminate risk.

Question 37

Observed Impacts for Sector: Food security and food production systems?

Answer 37

1. Reduced crop yields more common than increases; extreme daytime temperatures (~30C) are influential HC
2. Wheat and maize yields reduced (less so for soy and rice). MC
3. Rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes. MC

CO2 has stimulatory effects on crop yields in most cases. Other consequences weight out these benefits => net losses.

Question 38

Key considerations for food security relating to CC?

Answer 38

Production and price are most important/key = these lead downstream to food security.

We can stand 1 hit to staple food/year before affects human health/livelihoods.

KNOW: population rising, yields falling;
CONTROL: climate/yields;
RESEARCH: New varieties/new farming practices.

Question 39

Links between CC and food availability?

Answer 39

Long run: warming climate, responses to climate initiatives (agrofuels), gov. policy.

Short run: climate events, droughts, heat wave, floods => food insecurity exacerbated by CC

Question 40

Observed Impacts for Sector: Urban systems?

Answer 40

1. High proportion of the population and economic activities at risk are in urban areas
2. Rapid urbanization and growth of large cities creates highly vulnerable urban communities, often living in informal settlements, exposed to extreme weather -

Today 5/10 live in urban; 2050 = 7/10.

3. Urban areas often exacerbate climate changes, including extreme weather events – urban island effect.

Question 41

Risks from CC and Urbanization?

Answer 41

Heat – R: heat island, cooling demand, air pollution, ozone ground level.

ER: Complex interaction of heat stress, air pollution & social vulnerability.

Drought, water supply, wastewater & sanitation – electricity shortages, conflict end users water related disease, food price & insecurity,+ energy supply, transport ; telecommunication; housing; infrastructure; health & social services; poverty & discrimination exacerbates vulnerabilities.

Question 42

Adaptation Opportunities in Urbanization?

Answer 42

Economies of scale; density means more intense use of infrastructure; acceleration of economic activity (higher productivity); creativity from diversity & interdependence.

• Addressing CC by urban planning has major co-benefits health
• Air pollution (9th highest risk factor disease globally); physical inactivity pandemic (10 diseaseth); traffic injuries (8th cause of death).

Options:

1. Dense and mixed land use (active forms of transport – walking, cycling, public transport) – tradeoff density and pollution!
2. Greenspaces: reduce heat island, energy consumption, improve drainage, food supply, improve biodiversity & social capital & physical activity.

Question 43

Observed Impacts for Sector: Economic sectors and services?

Answer 43

1. Socioeconomic losses from flooding have increased, mainly due to greater exposure and vulnerability (HC)
2. Flooding can have major economic costs (RE; HA)
3. Affected insurance systems (RE; HA)
4. Economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally (low confidence in attribution to climate change)

Question 44

Policy/Gov approach to adaptation from economic point of view?

Answer 44

No cost: Strategies and targets; standards & regulations (creates value for economy), incentives.

Cost: prices & markets (ETS); strategic investment (climate proof infra invest), insurance (market imperfections)

1) globally (R&D crops & drugs);
2) nationally – climate proof infrastructure;
3) locally: dedicated adaptation infrastructure (flood control).

Question 45

Observed Impacts for Sector: Human health?

Answer 45

1. The health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of climate change (very high confidence)
2. Increased heat related mortality and decreased cold-related (medium confidence)
3. Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some waterborne illnesses and disease vectors (medium confidence)

Question 46

What are the Risks to Human Health?

Answer 46

(Key Risks/Emergent Risks)

Direct effects = storms, floods, heatwaves
Direct impacts = death + injury

Indirect impacts = extreme events exhasterbate other stressors affecting livelihoods.

= water & air pollution, crop loss, infrastructure, resilience plans, vector borne diseases, displacement etc.

=> downstream broad effect = mental illness (main one), malnutrition, diseases.

= potentially catastrophic for human survival (multi-frequent hit) = undermines the last half-century of gains in development and global health = medical emergency

Question 47

Policy responses (adaptation) for Health?

Answer 47

Responding to CC is greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century! Most make sense in their own right.

• Integration of health into NAP.
• Climate services for health
• Adaptation finance for health

Health services need to have capacity/financial capacity to respond to increasing threats (one of recognised key emergent risks of heat islands). Costs are as much as wars – trillions.

Eg. Pakistan total land 1/5 underwater, affected 20 m people => unsafe drinking crop loss, total cost = 43bn.

Question 48

Africa Key Risks

Answer 48

1. Compounded stress on water from overexploitation and degradation at present and increased demand in future. HC
2. Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress, strong adverse effects on regional, national and household livelihoods & food security + given increase in pest & disease. HC
3. Changes in incidence and geo range of vector & water borne disease

Question 49

Adaptation options in africa under different climate scenarios?

Answer 49

Water:

Reducing non-climate stressors on water, demand management and urban development

Crop productivity:

Tech adaptation (stress tolerant species) access to credit smallholders (potential limited LT)

Disease:

Achieving development goals: safe water, sanitation, urban development (potential LT and NT to half - less so now).

Question 50

Central America Key Risks?

Answer 50

1) Water Availability in arid and glacial dependent regions + flooding and landslides in urban.
2) Decreased food production and food quality
3) Spread of vector borne disease

Question 51

Adaptation Policies for Central and South America?

Answer 51

Water:

Integrated water management; flood management & early warning systems

Food:

New crop varieties, offset human and animal health impacts of reduced food quality & land use, strengthening traditional indigenous knowledge systems.

Disease:

Early warning systems.

Question 52

Key Risks in Polar Regions?

Answer 52

1) Risks for freshwater, terrestrial & marine ecosystems due to change in ice, snowcover, permafrost and ocean conditions => species habitat quality & dependent economies
2) Health and wellbeing of Arctic residents due to changing infrastructure
3) Unprecedented challenges for northern communities due to ER (climate related hazards and societal risks)

Question 53

Adaptation in Polar Regions

Answer 53

Risks to ecosystems:

Devastating because they are very high risk and increase over time & RCP - Nothing to be done to improve: understanding, monitoring, fishing for other… (victims).

Health & wellbeing arctic resi & emergent risks:

Co-produce robust solutions science + indigenous

Warning systems, observations, education, shifting resource bases. High risk and only gets worse - same marginal improvements possible over all time horizons

Question 54

Risk Assessment and management?

Answer 54

Subjective and involves value judgements and culture, socioeconomics etc. but we use tools like RISK MATRIX:

Function of:

Y=Likelihood
X=Impact

Question 55

Key risks definition?

Answer 55

Potential for severe impacts – “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

High hazard & vulnerability or exposure.

Large magnitude & high probability, nearer in term, irreversible & persistent and limited reduction options. Merits particular attention..

Question 56

What are the reasons for concern (5)?

Answer 56

Summarise the key risks cross sectors and regions:

1. Unique and threatened systems
2. Extreme Weather Events
3. Distribution of Impacts
4. Global aggregate impacts
5. Large scale singular events

Question 57

Climate Change Risk Assessment UK Imported Risks?

Answer 57

Direct = trade routes disrupted & supply chain

Indirect = volatility of food and feedstock prices

Major effects = major shifts in global patterns of food production

Question 58

Climate Change Risk Assessment UK Domestic?

Answer 58

Direct = Flood risk, water scarcity 
Indirect = cross – sectoral; wider economy

Major effects = high ++ scenarios, major sea level rise

Question 59

What does the index of the UK risk assessment look like?

Answer 59

Depending on impact and urgency:

1) watching brief;
2) sustain current action;
3) research priority;
4) more action needed.

Higher risk and urgency gets research and action priority = research funded projects:

Flood risk projections, water availability, impact on natural assets, development of high scenarios for UK climate impacts.

Question 60

What are the top 3 priority risk areas for the UK?

Answer 60

In order (all high magnitude):

1. HC: Flooding and coastal change risk =

<1bn estimated damages – already high risk – lots prop built in flood planes

Action: water management, natural flood management, infra.

2. HC: Risks to health, wellbeing & productivity increased with high temp. London up to 10 degrees warmer.

Action: tackle overheating in homes; adapt public infra; manage heat island with green spaces.

3. HC: Risks to shortages water supply, agriculture, energy generation & industry – projected deficit by 2050.

Action: more ambition household & industry consumption; manage demand & long term supply side planning.

Question 61

UK Opportunities from managing risks?

Answer 61

Increased agricultural production if manage risks first (water scarcity); otherwise not benefit from longer growing seasons. Tourism.. Exported adaptation..

Question 62

What are the barriers to action/adaptation?

Answer 62

1. Science and uncertainty – less uncertainty does not equal more action
2. Money
3. Priorities
4. Resources
5. Internal Politics

Question 63

Why is the UK a good case study for informing on barriers to adaptation?

Answer 63

• world leading in modelling
• state of art scenario projections
• translates science digestibly
• strong statutory drivers (committee on climate change in machinery of gov)

= science based adaptation

• awareness in local gov matches that of risk assessments (worried about the right things)

=> not translating into action.

If UK struggles to adapt, it’s institutional, not informational.

Question 64

Danger of over-relying on science to deliver for adaptation plans?

Answer 64

Sea level rise (which we are more sure about) however decoupled from local implementation – science updates come when things already underway => locked in

Question 65

What is the EU strategy for adaptation?

Answer 65

No adaptive directive but three pillars:

1. Promote action
2. Better inform decision making (right info – not necessarily climate science – one of biggest barriers)
3. Key vulnerable actors – climate proofing into directive, policy & infrastructure

3 project - urban resilience, infrastructure, and private sector?

Question 66

EU initiative Mayors adapt?

Answer 66

-Target 50 – got 120 – underestimated need for support.

Facilitated peer to peer learning (want to learn from other cities); offer adaptation guidance and support action, implementation from the ground.

• Approach: Workshops, presentation, events, communicate material
• Tech support: E-learning platforms, helpdesk, support tools
• Knowledge transfer: Good practice, city twinning

Success factors: strong city action network (6000 cities), monitoring & reporting – reference tool globally.

Question 67

EU recognised barriers to adaptation and city resilience? Knowledge

Answer 67

1) Economic costs & social impacts of CC
2) Impacts of CC on essential services & cross sectoral interdependencies
3) Downscaling & interpreting impacts on city level – higher resolution => more uncertainty
4) Safeguarding against maladaptation

What indicators and appropriate monitoring system – how justify? Mental health? Economics? (e.g. helpline for mental health after extreme floods few calls; but doctors 3x requests)

Question 68

Maladaptation definition?

Answer 68

‘intervention in one location or sector could increase the vulnerability of another location or sector;

arises not only from inadvertent badly planned adaptation actions, but also from deliberate decisions where wider considerations place greater emphasis on short-term outcomes ahead of longer term threats,

or that discount, or fail to consider, the full range of interactions arising from the planned actions’

Question 69

What were the EU hotspots?

Answer 69

Location vulnerability + Transport corridor/hub => ripple effects across wider network and sectors

Energy, Transport & Built

Question 70

EU energy hotspot

Answer 70

South & West Europe – coastline flooding & droughts

Mountain areas: infra by precipitation;
Urban: assets, dense electrical networks;
Rural: extreme events – no backup if failure. Low unprotected: flooding.

Question 71

EU Transport Hotspots

Answer 71

Highly centralised traffic patterns (JIT services);

Inland waterways (drought sensitive);

Road/rail (flood, rain);

Ports Atlantic coast (hotspot);

Air (free capacity)

Question 72

EU Construction Hotspots

Answer 72

(buildings) – thermal comfort; maintaining structural stability; critical infrastructure

Question 73

EU ensure Adaptation by Legislation?

Answer 73

Need reporting in standardised way to begin.

Private sector: Fiduciary duty on companies to take into account environment.

Public sector: statutory duties on local authorities to extend their civil protection duty beyond emergency planning to address risks to local business.

Question 74

EU suggestions for resilience in private sector

Answer 74

1) Understand current vulnerabilities & risks
2) Diversify supply chains, logistics and markets => flexibility and resilience for faster recovery & reaslise new market opportunity.
3) Integrated strategy => low carbon & climate resilience
4) Innovation in adaptation => cross sector; design competitions/materials like self-healing concrete.

Question 75

What is the UK Climate Impacts Programme?

Answer 75

Helps orgs to plan adaptation – integrated assessment of CC impacts in the UK – with aim to coordinate and integrate stakeholder led assessment. Basically EU initiative in the UK. Impacts on transport, development, warming (buildings), good practice & case studies => report.

“Your home in a changing climate” + “heatwave plan for England”

Working with partners – common ground, opportunities, multiple benefits, understand what’s possible.

Question 76

London Climate Change adaptation strategy?

Answer 76

First global city – risk based approach; identified climate risks today/tomorrow; framework for action – where people are best placed to act (mayor vs. other parties).

Model/projection & PATHWAY based.

Question 77

What are the pathways explored by London Climate Change adaptation strategy?

Answer 77

TE2100: Thames Estuary 2100 = Thames food risk managed over this century by use of adaptation pathways in relation to barrier or other strategies.

Heat, Surface Water Flood Risk, Water Resource Management

Central idea being: think through to worst case, to what degree cope, where falter.

=> to inform adaptation strategies.

Question 78

Quick Guide to developing pathways?

Answer 78

1. Define problem/aims/constraints
2. Understand vulnerabilities current
3. Understand climate implications & worst case
4. What measures could tackle threshold
5. Check interactions with other issues
6. Assemble high level route maps of responses that will tackle threshold
7. Compare cost/benefits and do sensitivity (higher/lower rates)
8. Recommend route/pathway
9. Implement & monitor to bring things forwards

Question 79

What is the Analytical Toolkit to assessing the economics of adaptation to Climate Change?

Answer 79

1) IAM’s – simulate complete chain from emission to impact. Best for loss/damage & mitigation/adaptation interplay. Highly stylised.
2) Empirical (Econometric Analysis) – Study climate & economy relationship over time and space.

Strengths: strong evidence based using past observations; weaknesses: we’ve seen nothing like this + underestimates cost.

3) Economy Wide Models: Simulation models (macro-economic models). Good high order effects like agriculture but not designed to represent key impact categories like weather extremes, weather related impacts, health impacts and ignore non market.

Question 80

Micro economics of adaptation?

Answer 80

NPV of acting early vs. NPV of acting later. Irrelevant 2050 – relevant the year ahead.

Project appraisal = compare the two NPV’s; not all measures cost beneficial. Compare carefully. Include non-monetary. Careful treatment of uncertainty = expected values, option values, robust decision making.

Question 81

Reasons to address adaptation early without relying too heavily on NPV?

Answer 81

1) Might want to act early as locking in and retrofitting is expensive.
2) protect against climate variability.
3) long term benefits different to delaying (capacity building, education – takes time to come into frutition),
4) long lead times – future benefit requires action now e.g. R&D into crop.

Question 82

What are the decision making tools for micro-economics of adaptation?

Answer 82

Traditional:

1. Cost/Benefit
2. Cost effectiveness (if not quantitatively think about achievement)
3. Multi criteria – keep benefits in different categories that you compare

Under Uncertainty:

1. Real options analysis (value of keeping options open whilst waiting for science)
2. Robust decision making – design adaptation withstanding as many futures as possible
3. Portfolio analysis
4. Rule based decision support for uncertainty

Question 83

Correlation between wealth and adaptation?

Answer 83

GDP and vulnerability & adaptation interlinked.

Supply side: better able to provide institutes, skills, access to credit & public service.

Due to demand side effect - just demand more.

Not only thing affecting adaptation & risk.

Exposure and vulnerability don’t necessarily move in right direction with richer.

Question 84

Financial Aid for Adaptation?

Answer 84

Difficulty is in adaptation finance and development aid.

Difficult to understand where development ends and adaptation starts. Developing countries; who is going to help with adaptation plan (world bank? Green climate fund?)

Climate change finance: $100bn by 2020 (UNFCCC)

Question 85

Maladaptation Examples

Answer 85

Crop yield loss = hoarding => prices go up

Biological Systems: some strategies for mitigation have worse effects on biodiversity: RCP – 2.6 = 2nd worse biodiversity outcome! (vegetation for biofuel).

0 carbon homes in flood planes => bring in generators/relocate people = not carbo neutral

Energy intensive adaptation strategies – protecting coastline etc.

Question 86

Key Hazards

Answer 86

1. Sea Level rise, coastal flooding, storms
2. Extreme percepitation, inland flooding
3. novel hazards
4. Extreme heat & urban heat island icreasing
5. warming, drought & percipitation vulner.
6. Drought
7. Rising ocean temp
8. Rising land temp, changes in perci. pattens

Question 87

What were the 4 guiding questions for adaptation assessment in infrastructure?

Answer 87

1) What climate data needed?
2) What climate info available? (4 hotspots)
3) what adaptation options are used in target sector?
4) What mechanics were used to address impacts and vulnerabilities?