Impacts Exam Flashcards
1
Q
Brief timeline of earth and the human activity on it
A
World 4.5 bn years. To 544m not very much happened. Then ‘Cambrian explosion’ = big explosion of diversity of life, animals and plants.
From there we have had various periods and epochs, up until most recent; Holocene 0.01 m which was due to agricultural expansion, followed by a mining expansion.
On top of the Holocene, geologists are now uniformly agreed since 2017 that we have entered a new epoche “ANTHROPOCENE”.
- Due to changing surface of the planet; our impacts penetrating layers of the earth where our influence now spans from space to crust (planetary boundaries) – plastics, fly ash, metals, pesticides, GHG concentrations.
2
Q
Our impact of time and result in environment?
A
We basically arrived 15 min to midnight, yet changes to the natural environment:
- Land use intensity, warming planet, raised sea levels, eroded ozone layer, acidified oceans, increased rate of extinction, mining activities alone move more sediment than all world’s oceans.
Meanwhile for humans: human life expectancy and living standards are rising = at odds – time scales – we haven’t caught up.
3
Q
How do we measure the human impact on the planet?
A
- Human footprint
- Burden of planetary illness
- Planetary boundary approach
4
Q
HUMAN FOOTPRINT?
A
Multidimensional index of human pressure on planet.
Broken up into 823 ecoregions of which majority degraded and footprint increased.
5
Q
Burden of Planetary Illness?
A
= indicators of our influence
- POPULATION: Took 200,000 years to get to 1st bn in 1804 – now adding 1bn every 11-13 years.
- CONSUMPTION: 20kg fish; 40kg meat/year
- LAND: 320 kg grain = 1% soil lost/year
- Every meal = 10kg of soil = 35 football fields forest lost/min
- Animals: 6th mass extinction; 8 species per hour and 58% decline in vertebrate abundance.
6
Q
Planetary Boundary Approach?
A
“Safe Operating Space” = based on idea of “Planetary boundaries” = space to crust human influence: the layers naturally create a safe operating space for us, but the extent to which we can manipulate these before it falls away is questioned.
- This conceptual framework shows us safe operating space, zone of uncertainty, position of threshold and areas of high risk. You have:
- X axis: control variable (pertubation)
- Y function for that system.
- We monitor to see what happens when we mess with things – tipping points, vs. diminishing functions of a system.
7
Q
The 7 planetary boundaries?
A
(these are the big systems we are thinking about) – and some we can’t yet measure. Climate change is only 1 of these.!!
Red (high risk zone)
- Biochemical Flows
- Biosphere integrity – genetic & functional diversity
Yellow (uncertainty):
- Climate Change
- Land-system change
Green – safe still
- Freshwater use
- Ocean acidification
- Stratospheric ozone depletion
Climate change is one result of our human influence, which exacerbates other underlying conditions of our other impacts on the planet. E.g. extinction of species is due to land use change rather than climate change.
8
Q
World Economic Forum top 10 impacts and Likelihood Risks for Global 10-year time horizon?
A
Of the top 10 global risks in terms of likelihood: 1) Conflict 2) extreme weather 7) Failure Climate Change
Of the top 10 global risks in terms of impact: 1) water crisis 2) disease 3) weapons mass destruction 4) conflict 5) failure climate change.
9
Q
Definition climate change?
A
A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
- due to natural internal processes or external forcings
- modulations of the solar cycles
- volcanic eruptions
- anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere or in land use
UNFCC specifies in its definition the HUMAN influence: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition (above and beyond) to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”
10
Q
Main trends of Climate Change:
A
Sea ice is melting, C02 concentrations, surface temp; heat content upper ocean; sea level; extreme events (mean/variance); unequivocal human influence.
11
Q
Definition of Impacts?
A
Effects on:
- natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change.
- lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure
due to the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system.
Also referred to as consequences and outcomes.
Physical impacts: subset of climate change impacts on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts, and sea level rise
12
Q
Definition of Hazard?
A
The potential occurrence of an event or trend or impact that may:
- cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts
- damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources.
13
Q
Definition of Exposure?
A
The presence of something (e.g., people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets) in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
14
Q
Definition of Vulnerability?
A
The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.
- sensitivity or susceptibility to harm
- lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
15
Q
Definition of Risk?
A
The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain recognizing the diversity of values
- often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur
- results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard.
16
Q
Definition of Adaptation and the two types?
A
process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.
- seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
- may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.
Incremental adaptation: Adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale.
Transformational adaptation: Adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a human or natural system.
17
Q
Definition of Resilience?
A
Capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.
18
Q
How do we know and keep track of everything? Evidence and Communication?
A
Developed a calibrated language that communicates the strength of scientific understanding, including uncertainties and areas of disagreement
- Each finding is supported by a ‘traceable’ account of the evaluation of evidence and agreement
- Virtually certain = 99%; Extremely likely = 95%; Very likely = 90%; Likely 66%; More likely than not = 50%
19
Q
What is Climate Change awareness like?
A
- High levels in developed world (Europe, Japan, America)
- Never heard of in developing (Africa, Asia, Middle East) – but here perceived biggest threat.
20
Q
What happens when you move from Climate Change trends to Impacts? Evidence of impacts?
A
- Becomes less and less scientific – more qualitative matters of opinion, which is why IPCC ranks everything and why we need the calibrated language.
- Large growth in evidence, some sectors more than others due to more published material & searches; especially for natural and human systems – deviations from historical conditions
- Still limited robust attribution studies and meta-analyses that link biological and physical responses to anthropogenic climate change
- “Detection of impacts” = evidence for whether a system is changing beyond a specified baseline that characterizes its behaviour in the absence of climate change
- Why detection and attribution are so important
21
Q
How can we detect and attribute/what do we look at?
A
Assessing the causal relationship between one or more drivers and a responding system by direct and indirect links.
Earth system separated into three components: Climate, Natural and Human. Differentiate between climate change impacts (easier) and anthropogenic climate change impacts (more difficult).
2 broad approaches: pattern analysis and regression analysis – huge uncertainty components – big focus to try and capture, hugely challenging problem.
22
Q
What are the main challenges related to detection and attribution?
A
- Observations, 2. Process understanding, 3. Need high quality, 4. long-term data, 5. Processes can be non-linear (e.g., thresholds), 6. local and non-local (both space and time), 7. Based on “synthesis of findings in the scientific literature” = Find and correct potential biases (IPCC no own research).
23
Q
What are the main observed impacts denoted by the IPCC?
A
IPCC synthesizes finding in a massive tabulation exercise where they rank everything by confidence, likelihood, attribution and trend.
- MAIN IMPACTS: GHG; Global mean surface temp; GMST - top of the list; thereafter follows sectoral impacts. Also geographical regions.
24
Q
What are the sectors impact assessments are broken down into? (10)
A
Freshwater Resources, Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, Coastal and low lying systems, Marine systems, Food security and food production systems, Urban system, Economic sectors and services, Human health, Human security, Livelihoods and poverty
25
Observed Impacts for Sector: Freshwater Resources?
1. Permafrost warming and thawing in high-latitude regions and in high-elevation regions (high confidence)
2. Changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence).
3. Glaciers shrinking almost worldwide (high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream (medium confidence)
No evidence that surface water and groundwater drought frequency has changed over the last few decades, although impacts of drought have increased mostly due to increased water demand.
Projection difficult due to multiple stressors. Impacts will depend on policies, prices & rules for operating complex system + science and data.
26
Global supply of freshwater?
Saltwater = 97.5%; Freshwater = 2.5%.
Total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems & humans = 1% of freshwater resources = 0.01% of all water! – 70-92% is used for growing food and raising animals (30%) (bovine, sheep, pig). Water footprint of animal > crop same nutritional value + 40% cereals used for food = Average diet = 3000-5000 L/day.
Different regions = different evaporation & runoff = uneven distribution of freshwater + no management of rivers & lakes as cross many borders. Millennium goal not reached by Africa & Arab. Asia uses most. Virtual water (hidden in exports) = Asia, Africa.
27
Threats to freshwater resources?
Growing population, diminishing resources. If everyone lives as in UK = 3 plants to support us.
Multiple stressors: Pollution (growing demand but pollution w/o regulated disposals), CC, species invasion (algea/insects), overuse (Mekong river supports 6 countries = ½ pop fish; ½ rice; 1/3 GDP) and poaching + river fragmentation (dams, downstream = ecosystem impairment, collapsed fisheries) land use changes and habitat loss;
Global biodiversity loss is inevitable and water stress in Europe by 2080 + effects of water cycle feedback system.
28
Adaptation necessities & policies to manage freshwater scarcity?
Flood defenses, cooperation or conflict (fishing pollution, flood control, water utilization, hydro).
Need:
- Need science to underpin policy decisions.
- Global bodies uniting to address global issues
- Demand related shifts - cutting back on agriculture (water productivity) – no policy addresses this.
29
Observed Impacts for Sector: Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems?
1. Shifting geographic ranges, activities, altered abundance (high confidence). Increased tree mortality.
2. Most recent observed terrestrial species extinctions have not been attributed to climate change (high confidence)
3. Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts, wind storms, fires, and pest outbreaks (medium confidence).
4. Contributed to the extinction of some species (medium confidence)
30
How do we measure how CC impacting the biological world?
Difficult for us know assess impacts/adaptaion necessary when we are uncertain about observations but: we broadly classify into 4 categories/processes (connected) with their own organising units:
1. Organisms: evolution (genetic diversity), physiology (activity rates), morphology (body size & shape); CC = reduction in body size; adopting thermal; hybridization.
2. Population: abundance, migration, phenology (timing in relation to climate); CC = 80% population reducing size of pop; timing of life-history processes (budding, spawning, migration).
3. Species: distribution habitat quantity/quality, extinction; CC = (tropicalisation: warmer = tropical species come; and borealization – pine forest going into tundra); things are moving!! – up mountains etc. Background extinction rate = 1000x faster in our era than in the past.
Extinction: 7.9% due to CC; RCP 8.5 = 16%
4. Communities: biomass, species interaction, ecosystems; CC = changes in behaviour, processes; ecosystem invasion and species competition.
31
What is the other key driver impacting the biological world?
LAND USE = one of key drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem change – greatest present concern; 32% of species richness = attributable to land use.
Fisheries = Asia 7m tonnes, Africa: 3m tonnes. Employs 41m people worldwide. Biodiversity – overriding conservation priority; foundation of food ecosystem on which the rest of the food chain relies. 20% of freshwater fish is vulnerable, endangered/extinct.
Not independent of CC; depends on future scenario – some strategies for mitigation have worse effects on biodiversity: RCP – 2.6 = 2nd worse biodiversity outcome! (vegetation for biofuel).
32
What are the results of CC on the Biological World?
82% of 94 processes that were looked at show response to CC across the 4 broad categories with only 1 degree warming. And probably very conservative! (holes in science & interconnection of processes)
Interesting because: connection between human health & environment – foundation of our society = ecosystems:
- Ecosystems accumulating stress
- Compromised ecological processes
- Direct and interactive impacts
- Diminished resilience
- Leads to ecological regime shifts & ecosystem function (coral => algea; tundra => boreal)
- Implications for human safety – strong evidence for societal collapse.
33
Monetary measurements of Biological World – Natural Capital?
Value of ecosystem services (natural and public good):
1999 = 30tr/year
2014 = 130 tr/year
4-20 tr lost during this period during due to ecosystem degradation
GDP: only half of what ecosystems are providing; losing 1/3-1/5 of GDP due to ecosystem degradation.
34
Observed Impacts for Sector: Coastal and low lying systems?
1. Sensitive to sea level, ocean temperature and ocean acidification (very high confidence)
2. Coral bleaching and species range shifts due to change in ocean temperature = 60% died in 2016 – as CC amplified el Nino.
Impacts of climate change are difficult to identify given other human-related drivers (e.g. land use change, coastal development, pollution)
35
Observed Impacts for Sector: Marine systems?
1. Shifts in the abundance, geographic distribution, migration patterns, and timing of seasonal activities of marine species (very high confidence)
2. Changing interactions between species, including competition and predator-prey dynamics (high confidence).
3. Altered ecosystem composition (high confidence)
4. Reduction in maximum body sizes (medium confidence).
5. Species replacement, bleaching, and decreased coral cover causing habitat loss.
6. Responses to ocean acidification less clear, not yet outside natural variability, influenced by other factors
7. “dead zones” are increasing in number and size
36
Observed Impacts for Sector: Food security and food production systems?
1. Reduced crop yields more common than increases; extreme daytime temperatures (~30C) are influential (high confidence).
2. Wheat and maize yields reduced (less so for soy and rice (medium confidence).
3. Rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes (medium confidence)
4. CO2 has stimulatory effects on crop yields in most cases, and elevated tropospheric ozone has damaging effects – other consequences weight out these benefits => net losses. Other than soy – will do well.
37
Key considerations for food security relating to CC:
Production aspects of food security rather than access most important
- Production and price are most important/key = these lead downstream to food security. We can stand 1 hit to staple food/year before affects human health/livelihoods.
KNOW: population rising, yields falling; CONTROL: climate/yields; RESEARCH: New varieties/new farming practices.
38
Long Run/Short run links between CC and food availability
Long run: warming climate, responses to climate initiatives (agrofuels), gov. policy.
Short run: climate events, droughts, heat wave, floods => food insecurity exacerbated by CC => to market & gov. responses.
39
Food Security Definition?
“... a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
40
Where are people most affected by food insecurity?
Mainly Africa by population proportion (27%); South Asia in absolute numbers (300m undernourished) – closely linked to poverty: multiplier: low yields for farmers, low purchasing power for consumers, high proportion of income spent on food.
Not evenly spread across globe – high latitude countries, UK & China are benefitting – already less insecure.
41
Dynamics of a food crisis & systemic risk?
Historically local & linked to weather shock, isolated = wait it out/food aid/storage
Now: still weather shocks – but complex, interconnectedness of markets => rapid price increases. (long & short drivers => panic & strategic responses) => export restrictions, stockpiling & speculation instead of shipping surplus to affected => food price shot up.
42
What could be blamed for the 2008 food crisis?
Biofuels: forced global food prices up by 75% - raising target would force up. 5% diversion of worlds cereal to agrofuels + increasing meat consumption in Asia.
Falling stocks: carry-over stocks grain always basic indicator of food security - falling since 200. Underinvestment in agriculture when prices were low.
Export restrictions: Rice - suspicion of shortages => shortages by hoarding & panic buying (increased demand) => food prices spiked.
- All resulted in great food price volatility + speculation on commodity exchanges & initial shock of disrupted weather. Too much market, not enough control.
43
Adapting to CC in terms of food security?
Reduce volatility by markets & storage – spread volatility across time and space. Preventing future volatility:
1. Storage: emergency reserves, int. coordinated grain reserves.
2. Info & Coordination: more and better information on storage – food agency report on stocks & cooperation.
3. Trade facilitation: int. grain clearing agreement, prevent export bans, food import financing
44
Link between bad governance and food security?
“most recent famines have been caused not because food wasn’t available but because of bad governance — institutional failures that led to poor distribution of the available food, or even hoarding and storage in the face of starvation elsewhere. "No substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent and democratic country with a relatively free press."
45
Observed Impacts for Sector: Urban systems?
1. High proportion of the population and economic activities at risk are in urban areas
2. Rapid urbanization and growth of large cities creates highly vulnerable urban communities, often living in informal settlements, exposed to extreme weather (medium confidence) - Today 5/10 live in urban; 2050 = 7/10.
3. Urban areas often exacerbate climate changes, including extreme weather events – urban island effect.
46
Risks from CC and Urbanization?
Heat – R: heat island, cooling demand, air pollution, ozone ground level. ER: Complex interaction of heat stress, air pollution & social vulnerability.
Drought, water supply, wastewater & sanitation – electricity shortages, conflict end users water related disease, food price & insecurity,
+ energy supply, transport & telecommunication; housing; infrastructure; health & social services; poverty & discrimination exacerbates vulnerabilities.
Increased concentration of people in urban centers 2010 => 2050; = more concentrated risks + greater opportunities for benefits/adaptation.
47
Adaptation Opportunities in Urbanization?
Economies of scale; density means more intense use of infrastructure; acceleration of economic activity (higher productivity); creativity from diversity & interdependence.
- Addressing CC by urban planning has major co-benefits health
- Air pollution (9th highest risk factor disease globally); physical inactivity pandemic (10 diseaseth); traffic injuries (8th cause of death).
Options:
1. Dense and mixed land use (active forms of transport – walking, cycling, public transport) – tradeoff density and pollution!
2. Greenspaces: reduce heat island, energy consumption, improve drainage, food supply, improve biodiversity & social capital & physical activity.
48
Observed Impacts for Sector: Economic sectors and services
1. Socioeconomic losses from flooding have increased, mainly due to greater exposure and vulnerability (high confidence)
2. Flooding can have major economic costs (robust evidence, high agreement)
3. Affected insurance systems (robust evidence, high agreement)
4. Economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally (low confidence in attribution to climate change)
Global economic impacts are difficult to estimate + not all key economic sectors and services have been subject to detailed research
49
What did the Stern Cost/Benefit Deliver?
Stern Review – meta approach cost of mitigation vs. benefits
Results: Affects all countries (financial services global); cost of action less than cost of inaction & danger of delay (tech learning, lock in); CC = greatest market failure; policy has greatest potential & global collaboration is essential
50
Economic policy approaches to mitigation?
No cost: Strategies and targets; standards & regulations (creates value for economy)
Cost: prices & markets (ETS); strategic investment (infra invest)
51
Economics: The Market Failures and Solutions?
GHG emissions externalities – no financial value & Imperfections in risk & capital markets
Carbon tax; carbon pricing + R&D – where economy doesn’t naturally invest – VC, Gov R&D + Networks – smart grids, storage, charging = gov infrastructure + Info: CDP + Co-benefits: look for these – health benefits, markets & economy…
52
Cost & Investment into Economy to mitigate impacts?
There’s a green growth story – costs decreasing much quicker than expected + rate of learning. Rhetoric changed from cost to opportunity.
- Opportunity = 80-90tr infrastructure in the next 15 years – spend this in the right way.
Changing capital flows = players to take a view and spend responsibly = banking, insurance, pension funds (long term investment), European investment bank, green investment bank; climate bonds, institutional investors.
53
What are the overall impacts from CC on the Economy?
On money industry & investment:
Assets and portfolios of assets = direct damage & indirect impact – weaker growth and lower returns. Interconnectedness and global nature means understanding risk: $4.2 trillion of $143 tr invested. – tail risk that matters though, not average.
Stranded assets: oil & gas; global carbon markets – investing in things that won’t deliver/too much renewables stranded; coal power station investment; winners/losers – too many losers => increases systematic risk.
54
What has already been happening in terms of the economy and financial actors?
Divestment, active engagement, selective investment, carbon pricing, innovation, disclosure and improved information, investing in low-carbon infrastructure, legislation!
55
Observed Impacts for Sector: Human health
1. The health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of climate change (very high confidence)
2. Increased heat related mortality and decreased cold-related (medium confidence)
3. Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some waterborne illnesses and disease vectors (medium confidence)
Health burden from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified
56
Impacts of Climate Change on Health?
(Key Risks/Emergent Risks)
Direct effects – storms, floods, heatwaves (likely to increase) =>
Direct impacts = Death + Injury
Indirect impacts = extreme events exhasterbate other stressors affecting livelihoods = social dynamics affected = water pollution, air pollution, crop loss, infrastructure, resilience plans, vector borne diseases, displacement etc. = mental illness (main one), malnutrition, diseases. These downstream broad effects like displacement is worst thing you can do to humans.
= potentially catastrophic for human survival (multi-frequent hit) = undermines the last half-century of gains in development and global health = medical emergency
57
What is the estimated health exposure from CC and who?
Mostly deaths in Africa & number is 150,000 deaths a year due to CC – expected to rise.
- 3 bn additional exposure events for elderly heat wave
- 1.4 bn additional droughts exposure events/year by end of century
- 2 bn additional extreme rainfall exposure events annually
Who – down to vulnerability and exposure:
Women (natural disasters kill more women than men & at younger age) + children and the poor worst affected (20-25 m undernourished children by 2050 = circa 20% increase). Low and middle income unable to adapt – higher exposure, burden of disease
58
Policy responses (adaptation) for Health?
Responding to CC is greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century! Most make sense in their own right.
- Integration of health into national adaptation plans
- Climate services for health
- Adaptation finance for health
Health services need to have capacity/financial capacity to respond to increasing threats (one of recognised key emergent risks of heat islands). Costs are as much as wars – trillions.
Eg. Pakistan total land 1/5 underwater, affected 20 m people => unsafe drinking crop loss, total cost = 43bn.
Health co-benefits of mitigation:
- Energy Access and renewables – main air pollution = 7m deaths
- Coal Phase Out – ambient air pollution = 800,000 deaths.
- Deployment of low emissions vehicles = half of NOX – major air pollution source.
59
Limits to adaptation for Health?
- Health systems can’t entirely respond to unexpected events even if prepared “cognitive resets due to time lags”
60
Observed Impacts for Sector: Human security?
1. Vulnerability reduction and adaptation actions highest in regions with governance difficulties (high confidence)
2. Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement)
3. Large-scale violent conflict harms assets that facilitate adaptation, including infrastructure, institutions, natural resources, social capital, and livelihood opportunities – can’t say for certain, but risk of Syrian war conflict increased due to CC.
- This is in one direction – doesn’t seem to say that CC causes insecurity, but that insecurity harms adaptation. Example of an area where we need to understand causality.
61
Impacts of CC on human security (8)?
Understanding vulnerability (poverty being solely a current status) and adaptation capacity is key. Main threats are disasters and conflict (Syrian war).
CC: 1) Catalyzes vulnerabilities (global south), 2) threatens lives & livelihoods, 3) increases disaster risk & conflict, 4)increased migration (this response => conflict), 5) challenging states ability to provide conditions for human security, 6) complex emergency, 7) sudden poverty (joins armed forces), 8) weak states
MULTIPLIER: Where poverty, urbanization and conflict, food security and basic service access => impacts on adaptive capacity => more human insecurity, disaster and conflict.
62
Adaptation options to meet human security?
Focus is on sustainable livelihoods:
1) Agricultural intensification; 2) livelihood diversification 3) migration 4) climate resilient housing 5) early warning systems 6) use alternative energy.
However, if socially marginalized/urbanizing/conflict stricken (global south) – not as easy…
63
Adaptation to Human Security under various conditions of?
Is CC causing insecurity or is the responses/adaptation to CC causing insecurity? Elitist/int. institutions limited to presence. Key is focusing on the most marginalized => trickle effect.
1. Poverty/Marginalization: adaptation => more vulnerable & insecure – safety net for women and children.
2. Urbanization: having to move to cities permanently due to environ change & service industry => not want to => new roles for these = new sources, new roles for these.
3. Conflict: institutional support influenced by donors & not considered geography of vulnerabilities.
4. Corporate Agendas: often free to act as they want & mitigation/adaptation will be hugely profitable – ensuring act responsibly.
Progress not just economic. Development should happen but not at expense of marginalized. Renewables/waste displacing indigenous people: “free, prior & informed consent (UN)” – not the case.
64
Measuring Vulnerability in context of human security?
Scoring system:
1. Material – income sources, education attainment, assets, exposure
2. Institutional – social networks, warning systems, infrastructure, #earning members/household
3. Attitudinal – sense of empowerment, knowledge about hazards/resources
65
Definition Human Security?
“...to protect the vital core of all human lives in ways that enhance human freedoms and human fulfillment. Human security means protecting fundamental freedoms – freedoms that are the essence of life. It means protecting people from critical (severe) and pervasive (widespread) threats and situations.
66
Definition Adaptive Capacity?
Ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate environmental hazards or policy change and to expand the range of variability with which it can cope.
67
Observed Impacts for Sector: Livelihoods and Poverty
1. Exacerbate other stressors, negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for the poor (high confidence)
2. Livelihoods of indigenous peoples in the Arctic altered through impacts on food security and traditional and cultural values (medium confidence)
3. Impacts on livelihoods, destruction of homes, reductions in crop yields, increased food prices and food insecurity
4. Positive effects include diversification of social networks and of agricultural practices
68
Examples of sectoral impacts of climate change vs. other activity?
Terrestrial: Most recent observed terrestrial species extinctions have not been attributed to climate change (high confidence) - Overexploitation; 2) agriculture; 3) urban => 7= CC.
Health: Health burden from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified
Livelihoods and poverty: exacerbate other stressors, negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for the poor (high confidence)
Coastal: Impacts of climate change are difficult to identify given other human-related drivers (e.g. land use change, coastal development, pollution)
69
What is the regional breakdown of impacts? (9)
Europe, Asia, Africa, Australasia, North America, Central & South America, Polar Regions, Small Islands, The Ocean
70
Regional Impacts: Central and South America?
1. Land use change & Biodiversity loss (HC)
2. Shrinkage of glaciers and change in precipitation (HC)
3. Ocean Acidification => coral bleaching => reduction fish stocks (HC)
4. Food Scarecity (MC) – fish stocks, ocean warming, agriculture & precipitation
71
Regional Impacts: Small Islands?
1. Coastal Erosion, rainfall, storm surges, fisheries collapsing (HC)
2. Corrals dying, very vulnerable – food security, livelihoods and health
- Climate change risk assessment = most urgent risk to these small island.
72
Regional Impacts: Oceans?
Tourisms, fisheries, corral bleaching, temperature rise.
| 7% of GDP at risk = 148 million fish, 47 million jobs off ocean and 217 billion US dollars.
73
Regional Impacts: Australasia?
- Warming trend, extreme temperature, water constraint => drier climate. Hot, hungry and thirsty. => loss of species
- Increased precipitation, ocean acidification, coral reef system – extreme weather events.
74
Regional Impacts: Polar?
Arctic:
Decreasing summer sea ice, lower glacier volume, decreased snow cover, permafrost degradation, advance of arctic tree lines, increased plant species; negative effects on non-migratory specifies. Decline in seals; indigenous peoples livelihoods.
Antarctica:
Ice mass loss, increased plant specifies => arctic ecosystems => more plankton and fish.
75
Regional Impacts: Asia?
Rice = 90% of world supply
Warming trends & increasing temp => water scarcity, food security and distribution of plant specifies, marine systems under stress, rapid urbanization, poverty, human health, storms.
76
Regional Impacts: North America?
Increased extreme events, urbanization, stress water resource, land use change, increased wild fire intensity, economic activity & society – high mortality rates, more heat related mortality from extreme weather.
77
Regional Impacts: Africa?
Can divide this, but generally: crop yields down, coastal regions flooding, tree/rainforest density down, water stress, increased volatility rainfall and storms, fisheries, mountain biodiversity, coral reefs & marine ecosystems, ocean acidification, vector borne disease, predator numbers decreasing.
78
Regional Impacts: Europe?
Warmer and wetter in northern Europe, more forest, food and tourism; warmer and drier in south – less food, forest and tourism
Generally: transport, coastal regions, energy, water, fish, less snow.
79
Why do we want to detect and attribute impacts?
A key motivation assessing observed impacts is that they could indicate potential future impacts but past not always good indicator of future + absence of past doesn’t mean no future impacts.
- Detection and attribution of observed impacts = important component of future risk assessment and management.
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Why does it matter? What are we trying to achieve (UNFCCC)?
Stabilize GHG atmospheric concentrations at level preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
= holding increases in temp well below 2 degrees above pre indu. & pursue limit of 1.5 degrees
= significantly reducing risks and impacts of CC.
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Risk Assessment and management?
- Acceptable risk is subjective and involves value judgements and culture, socioeconomics etc. but we use tools like RISK MATRIX:
- RISK = Function of Y=Likelihood & X=Impact
- Key risks = potential for severe impacts – “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” = large magnitude & high probability, nearer in term, irreversible & persistent and limited reduction options. Merits particular attention...
- Risk = impact (basically synonymous) = Combo of vulnerability, hazard and exposure; and are interlinked with socioeconomic processes (like governance, adaptation and mitigation actions) and the climate (anthropogenic CC and natural variability)
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What are Key Impact and Key Vulnerabilities?
Key vulnerabilities = if they have potential to combine with hazardous events or trends to result in key risks
Key impacts = severe consequences for humans and social-ecological systems
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What is an emergent risk?
A risk that arises from the interaction of phenomena in a complex system.
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What are the key vulnerabilities, risks and emergent risks from key hazards? (4)
Listed are the hazards;
1. Sea level rise, coastal flooding and storm surges:
V = people, economic activity low lying; KR = death, injury livelihoods; ER = interaction of urbanization, sea level rise, increased economic activity, limits of insurance => greater inequality.
2. Extreme precipitation & inland flooding
V = people urban areas/old etc. KR = death, injury; ER = precipitation, urbanisation, limits of insurance => greater inequality, eroded assets.
3. Novel Hazards yielding systematic risk
V = population and infrastructure lacking experience with hazard; KR = failure of systems coupled to electric; Emergent => magnitude of impact due to dependence => reduced social cohesion.
4. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat, urban heat islands
V = increasing urban elderly population + inability of local org to provide health; KR = death; Emergent => air pollution + heat + demographic shifts => overloading health & emergency services + productivity loss.
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High Concern Key Risks (high confidence) (4)
Reasons for concern help us define what level of climate change is dangerous in relation to global mean temp & risk in relation to certain variables like threatened systems, distribution of impacts and extreme weather events.
Low lying, coastal, small island developing states
- storm surges, flooding, sea level rise
Large urban populations
- Inland flooding
Systemic risks due to extreme weather
- Infrastructure breakdown and critical services
Extreme heat
- Urban populations, outdoor workers
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What can we do to mitigate the key future risks/impact?
It’s all about choosing a climate-resilient pathway within opportunity space that will lead us to the best possible future.
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Maladaptation examples?
Crop yield loss = hoarding => prices go up
Biological Systems: some strategies for mitigation have worse effects on biodiversity: RCP – 2.6 = 2nd worse biodiversity outcome! (vegetation for biofuel).
0 carbon homes in flood planes => bring in generators/relocate people = not carbo neutral
Energy intensive adaptation strategies – protecting coastline etc.
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Paris Agreement – Responses to CC?
After 21 years of negotiations, legally binding 195 countries: contributions, not reaching the below 2 degree; must step up over time. 5 year ratched and ‘stock take’ next in 2023.
Contributions so far = no way near.
Pledges = 2.4 -2.7
Current policies = 3.3 – 3.9
Bound to be locked in to more warming – we’ve passed the point at which it can be avoided w/o negative emissions technology. Lag in climate system = majority of impacts have yet to come.
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Committee on Climate Change Adaptation (UK)
Adaptation committee which is independent and reports to parliament – bridge between science, economics and turns into specific and realistic policy for gov. to adopt in response to CC.
Statutory in UK: provides expert advice on opportunities and threats & reports to parliament on process with 5 year interim target.
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Achieving Mitigation Aims as set out by Paris Agreement?
Currently emitting 628 MTCO2e
2050: 160 MTCO2e
=75% cut
The sectoral overview of emissions means we can’t do everything in one sector – nor leave any behind – has to be cross economy and 3-4% reduction year after year.
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Sectoral Breakdown of emissions?
Electricity = 156 – key – room for largest strides in renew. & nuclear
Transport = 114 – efficiency – EV & low carbon
Industry = 114 – efficiency – CCS, fuel switching, product substitu.
Resi & commercial Heating = 105 – buildings efficiency – low carbon heat, insulation (legacy and lock in issue)
Other GHG = 92 – efficiency – farms, waste from landfills
Aviation & Shipping = 41 – least progress, most difficult.
Where not able to reduce, offset.
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Climate Change Risk Assessment Global Outcomes (2017)?
Globally: Risks are far greater than opportunities; most urgent & direct = loss of small island states; indirect = impact on global economy; large scale tipping.
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Climate Change Risk Assessment UK Imported?
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Direct = trade routes disrupted & supply chain
Indirect = volatility of food and feedstock prices;
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Major effects = major shifts in global patterns of food production
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Climate Change Risk Assessment UK Domestic?
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Direct = Flood risk, water scarcity
Indirect = cross – sectoral; wider economy
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Major effects = high ++ scenarios, major sea level rise
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Result of UK Risk Assessment?
Depending on impact and urgency = 1) watching brief; 2) sustain current action; 3) research priority; 4) more action needed.
Higher risk and urgency gets research and action priority = research funded projects:
Flood risk projections, water availability, impact on natural assets, development of high scenarios for UK climate impacts.
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6 priority areas & action for the national adaptation programme?
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In order (all high magnitude):
1. HC: Flooding and coastal change risk = <1bn estimated damages – already high risk – lots prop built in flood planes
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Action: water management, natural flood management, infra.
2. HC: Risks to health, wellbeing & productivity increased with high temp. London up to 10 degrees warmer.
Action: tackle overheating in homes; adapt public infra; manage heat island with green spaces.
3. HC: Risks to shortages water supply, agriculture, energy generation & industry – projected deficit by 2050.
Action: more ambition household & industry consumption; manage demand & long term supply side planning.
4. MC: Risks to natural capital (terrestrial, freshwater, soil & biodiversity) – top soil erosion & water evaporation from 38% to 9% (human and food security) => lower value crops.
Action: better natural resource stewardship; action to address poor land management & pollution pressures; address land use change suitably.
5. MC: Risks to domestic & international food production and trade – reliant on imports + food price volatility higher than other. 2008 food crisis illustrates interconnectedness.
Action: balance import and export – not grow all own = also risky.
6. LC: New and emerging pests and disease + invasive non-native species – mainly from trade but CC exacerbates.
Action: Research priority. Some already: Lyme disease; needle blight (forest risk) + new diseases.
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UK Opportunities from managing risks?
Increased agricultural production if manage risks first (water scarcity); otherwise not benefit from longer growing seasons.
Hydro brake – major flood defence scheme; sale of goods and services for climate adaptation; tourism.
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Uncertainties around UK risks?
Impacts almost certain to happen to some degree – uncertainty is magnitude, not direction. Tipping points; Same limit threshold; pace of future emissions.
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Progress of the UK National Adaptation Programme?
Progress in measuring CO2 emissions
So far 370 actions of which 109 complete, 212 on track
- does not mean we’re reducing risks – all evidence = vulnerabilities are increasing => 6 risks.
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What are the barriers to action/adaptation?
1. Science and uncertainty – less uncertainty does not equal more action
2. Money
3. Priorities
4. Resources
5. Internal Politics
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Why is the UK a good case study for informing on barriers to adaptation?
- world leading in modelling + state of art scenario projections + translates science digestibly + strong statutory drivers (committee on climate change in machinery of gov) = science based adaptation
- awareness in local gov matches that of risk assessments (worried about the right things) => not translating into action.
- If UK struggles to adapt, it’s institutional, not informational.
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What does the UK as a case study illustrate about barriers to adaptation?
- Budget cuts = -20.4% real term spending between 2010-2015. (-36% in central gov. grants)
- Layoffs of adaptation officers in local authorities
- Adaptation lower priority
Address with risk-based forecast with probability? => Doesn’t work because those with responsibility don’t want to act on it. 3-5 year statutory responsibility (too long term consequences)
Blue light culture (reactionary); institutional compliance and blame avoidance; resource constrained conservatism – reinforces blame avoidance. ALL LEADS TO UNRESPONSIVENESS
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How to deal with uncertainty and barriers to adaptation?
With things we know will happen for certain, it doesn’t matter the stats. In the UK = flooding; “Very difficult to put quantitative number of how much heavy rain will change and peak flows” => just set 20%; scientists & policymakers knew BS, but local and operational staff implementing = applied W/O question.
Sea level rise (which we are more sure about) however decoupled from local implementation – science updates come when things already underway => locked in.
HENCE; bar good science we need: abandon overreliance; effective communication; institutional capacity to act on advice = resources, staff, mandate, appetite and institutional culture (blame avoidance etc).
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What does the EU adaptive approach (policy) look like?
2013 adaptive strategy
Idea is to go from EU level to urban resilience – no adaptive directive but three pillars:
1. Promote action by member states
2. Better inform decision making (right info – not necessarily climate science – one of biggest barriers)
3. Key vulnerable actors – climate proofing into directive, policy & infrastructure.
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Give an example of an EU initiative to adaption?
Urban resilience initiative: MAYORS Adapt
-Target 50 – got 120 – underestimated need for support. Facilitated peer to peer learning (want to learn from other cities); offer adaptation guidance and support action, implementation from the ground.
- Approach: Workshops, presentation, events, communicate material
- Tech support: E-learning platforms, helpdesk, support tools
- Knowledge transfer: Good practice, city twinning
Success factors: strong city action network (6000 cities), monitoring & reporting – reference tool globally.
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EU recognised barriers to adaptation and city resilience?
These are not resource based - knowledge gaps:
- Economic costs & social impacts of CC
- Impacts of CC on essential services & cross sectoral interdependencies
- Downscaling & interpreting impacts on city level – higher resolution => more uncertainty
- Developing, selecting & applying adaptation indicators and the appropriate monitoring system – how justify? Mental health? Economics? (e.g. helpline for mental health after extreme floods few calls; but doctors 3x requests)
- Safeguarding against maladaptation
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Maladaptation definition?
‘intervention in one location or sector could increase the vulnerability of another location or sector; maladaptation arises not only from inadvertent badly planned adaptation actions, but also from deliberate decisions where wider considerations place greater emphasis on short-term outcomes ahead of longer term threats, or that discount, or fail to consider, the full range of interactions arising from the planned actions’
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EU figuring out what’s happening in terms of Adaptation for infrastructure sector?
Trying to understand what’s happening in this sector = knowledge assessment of adaptation = 400 resources assessed + consultants
Methodology to assess:
1) what climate data available and needed for CC assessment
Problems: lack of data on past events, projections, user need conflict (not that level of detail), accessibility of data, right info to right people. Not just climate data – age of buildings etc.
2) Vulnerability and risk assessment
Problems: confusion about how to undertake vulnerability & risk – subjective and not standardised.
3) Adaptation options used – what extent are these cost/benefit
- Top Results: focus is on engineering our way out; knowledge transfer; ecobased system adaptation (water management dominates)
4) What mechanics are used to address impacts & vulnerabilities?
- Mechanisms that prompt sector to adapt: legislation (discussed most), industry wide standards (2), investment/procurement, grants/subsidies, insurance.
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EU Identified ‘Hot Spots’ from Risk assessment approach to adaptation in energy, transport and built environment?
Hotspot: location vulnerability + transport corridor/hub => ripple effects across wider network and sectors
Energy (location): South & West Europe – coastline flooding & droughts – impact hydro; Mountain areas: infra by precipitation; Urban: assets, dense electrical networks; rural: extreme events – no backup if failure. Low unprotected: flooding.
Transport: highly centralised traffic patterns (JIT services); inland waterways (drought sensitive); road/rail (flood, rain); Ports Atlantic coast (hotspot); Air (free capacity)
Construction: (buildings) – thermal comfort; maintaining structural stability; critical infrastructure
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EU identified risks to Private Sector Adaptation?
Global supply chains interlinked – one extreme event => private sector adapts – knock on effect. Pretty good at adapting. It’s the public sector.
E.g: Risks to businesses: Flooding in Thailand 2011 = global impact on electronics & automotive industry => shortages => price increases.
Risks to chemical: Operational: fire, floods, corrosion, water, increased commodity prices, supply chain disruptions. Address: water efficiency, recycling and re-use priority.
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EU ensure Adaptation by Legislation?
Need reporting in standardised way to begin.
Private sector: Fiduciary duty on companies to take into account environment.
Public sector: statutory duties on local authorities to extend their civil protection duty beyond emergency planning to address risks to local business.
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EU suggested solutions to build in resilience overall?
Understand current vulnerabilities & risks to identify critical point where build in adaptation measures and resilience.
Diversify supply chains, logistics and markets => flexibility and resilience for faster recovery & reaslise new market opportunity.
Integrated strategy => low carbon & climate resilience
Innovation in adaptation => cross sector; design competitions/materials like self-healing concrete.
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What is the UK Climate Impacts Programme?
Helps orgs to plan adaptation – integrated assessment of CC impacts in the UK – with aim to coordinate and integrate stakeholder led assessment. Basically EU initiative in the UK. Impacts on transport, development, warming (buildings), good practice & case studies => report.
“Your home in a changing climate” + “heatwave plan for England”
Working with partners – common ground, opportunities, multiple benefits, understand what’s possible.
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London Climate Change adaptation strategy?
First global city – risk based approach; identified climate risks today/tomorrow; framework for action – where people are best placed to act (mayor vs. other parties). Model/projection based.
TE2100: Thames Estuary 2100 = Thames water management => food risk managed over this century – Thames barrier central to this. Scenario based – Rotterdam followed.
London water supply: Also based on pathways – deficit of water projected by 2050. Worst case – run out of water despite prevention; need to look at different attitudes to living if investment not enough => transformational reform.
Heat: also adaptation pathways – substantial heating projected => bring in building upgrades, green roofs, urban greening etc. reduction from pretty bad to less so.
Surface water: green infrastructure + property level protection measures.
With projection based approaches like this to adaptation, you can see the contribution of certain strategies = like urban greening/infrastructure => limited reducing resi overheat risk but great for surface flood risk; air con = heat worse.
UK has provided leading role, basic science consistent for 20 years, DESPITE THIS, take up still slow, easy to ignore – need more ambition & imagination – worst case!!!
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Guide to using/developing pathway approaches to adaptation?
1. Define problem/aims/constraints
2. Understand vulnerabilities current
3. Understand climate implications & worst case
4. What measures could tackle threshold
5. Check interactions with other issues
6. Assemble high level route maps of responses that will tackle threshold
7. Compare cost/benefits and do sensitivity (higher/lower rates)
8. Recommend route/pathway
9. Implement & monitor to bring things forwards
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What is the Analytical Toolkit to assessing the economics of adaptation to Climate Change?
1) IAM’s – simulate complete chain from emission to impact. Best for loss/damage & mitigation/adaptation interplay. Highly stylised.
2) Empirical (Econometric Analysis) – Study climate & economy relationship over time and space.
Strengths: strong evidence based using past observations; weaknesses: we've seen nothing like this + underestimates cost.
3) Economy Wide Models: Simulation models (macro-economic models). Good high order effects like agriculture but not designed to represent key impact categories like weather extremes, weather related impacts, health impacts and ignore non market.
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The microeconomics of adaptation?
Prioritizing action; what’s done first = NPV of acting early vs. NPV of acting later. Irrelevant 2050 – relevant the year ahead.
- Project appraisal = compare the two NPV’s (look at formulas)
Arguments early action:
1) Might want to act early as locking in and retrofitting is expensive. 2) protect against climate variability. 3) long term benefits different to delaying (capacity building, education – takes time to come into frutition), long lead times – future benefit requires action now e.g. R&D into crop.
Project appraisal: not all measures cost beneficial. Compare carefully. Include non-monetary. Careful treatment of uncertainty = expected values, option values, robust decision making.
Highest benefit to cost: ecosystem based adaptation; capacity building + awareness raising and water efficiency.
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Decision making tools for micro economics of adaptation?
Traditionally:
Cost benefit
Cost effectiveness (if not quantitatively think about achievement)
Multi criteria – keep benefits in different categories that you compare
Under Uncertainty:
Real options analysis (value of keeping options open whilst waiting for science)
Robust decision making – design adaptation withstanding as many futures as possible
Portfolio analysis
Rule based decision support for uncertainty
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Barriers and constraints to private adaptation?
Information, market failures (externalities, public goods)
Behavioural barriers – short time horizon
Policy failures (conflicting spending priorties, distorted incentives
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Governmental role for adaptation?
It’s down to the gov. Private sector is pretty good at it (EU & UK).
Create incentives, regulation (building zones, zone planning) market incentives (pricing)
Provide public good adaptation – globally (R&D crops & drugs); nationally – climate proof infrastructure; locally: dedicated adaptation infrastructure (flood control).
Remove barriers to adaptation (climate info, market imperfection – insurance coverage).
Provide social protection – support vulnerable groups, emergency services (after flood).
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Macroeconomics of adaptation?
Rich societies better prepared to deal with climate risks. Link between development and vulnerability: Supply side effect sources – better institutions, better skills, access to credit, better public services. Adaptation increases with income – demand effect – rich people consume more protection (with more money to spend on those (normal income effect).
As we grow richer = protection levels and resilience will go up.
However, adaption not only factor affecting risk. Not all development therefore reduced climate risk.
Exposure and vulnerability don’t necessarily move in right direction with richer.
Climate risk = hazard + exposure + vulnerability.
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Macroeconomics finance?
Difficulty is in adaptation finance and development aid.
How to change development patterns; recognise not in certain areas due to CC. Difficult to understand where development ends and adaptation starts. Developing countries; who is going to help with adaptation plan (world bank? Green climate fund?)
Difficult to say but it will matter.
Climate change finance: $100bn by 2020 (UNFCCC)
