III. Tropical Forests Flashcards
How much carbon is captured in the Amazon Forest?
Twice of total historical US emissions in the forests’ carbon capture capacity.
Evolution of Brazilian Amazon Over 30 Years
Brazilian Amazon has become a source instead of sink for carbon.
Due to deforestation for logging and cattle (land speculation). 15-18% deforested.
Starting in 2014, deforestation rates in Brazil started to return to near pre-2004 levels. Higher deforestation in Bolsonaro years after significant progress in early 2000s
Amazon Forest on an Emissions Curve
The amazon region is very poor but emits like a rich country - it is off the charts.
> 50% of Brazil’s emissions come from burning forests which in big majority is the Amazon.
Problems with Regressions Involving Law Enforcement and Illegal Deforestation
Endogeneity problem that means coefficients on an OLS regression cannot be interpreted as causal.
Law enforcement (L.E) decreases deforestation but deforestation increases L.E
To Fix: Replace/proxy law enforcement by the instrument of cloud cover since cloud cover has an indirect effect on deforestation through its effect on L.E.
Results of OLS Regression of Cloud Cover and Illegal Deforestation
Empirical evidence that environmental law enforcement effectively curbed tropical deforestation in 2006-2016.
What % of land currently being deforested in the Brazilian Amazon is being used by cattle?
90%
Parameters that impact how much carbon capture you loose when cutting a tree
Based on density of the trees at the point
Distance from equator
Height of the tree
Discount, Valuation for Forest
When deforesting, cost happens immediately since most of the emissions happen when you burn
But the benefits are agriculture over time.
More you discount, the worse the tradeoff becomes since you still pay everything today and you’re gaining things in a series that is worth less
So if you discount more for a given Pe, you will deforest
Amazon’s Tipping Point
The tipping point for the Amazon is thought to be around 25%.
So if you continue to run like this you get close to the tipping point range within 30-40 years → cost of maintaining the current policy.
Impact of Agricultural Prices on Deforestation
If you increase agriculture price, since it only exports agriculture, you always get more profit and less incentive to protect rainforest.
Brazil’s Tradeoff Between Hypothetical Transfers for Carbon Capture and Agriculture
Brazil would be better off with the transfers than if it didn’t have a treaty and only faced the high price for agriculture
Transfer price ą$15/ton satisfy participation constraint i.e., accepting a contract to receive $15 per net ton of CO2 captured, is better for Brazil than going alone. Would lead to substantial reforestation.
Why is it important to reforest the Amazon and put in place carbon capture credit scheme?
Amazon has a huge carbon capture capacity.
The problem is the next 30 years (think of stocks). Act now. Doesn’t seem viable to get the technological solutions that could help us capture the necessary carbon
We’re at risk of +2 celsius now. Brazil is only country within chance of getting Paris targets.
Which species of organisms/trees are best for storing carbon?
Carbon doesn’t disappear → it’s stored. It will be extremely important how it’s stored.
Long lived species are the best
Primary forests have the longest lived species
Why are primary forests useful for carbon storage?
30-60% of the carbon storage that is in the ground
These types of forests store lots of carbon underground which means it won’t be released again.
Why should we be upset about permafrost melting?
Used to be boreal forests so all the carbon in the soils
But, now has no vegetation to keep it there so carbon just releases. Water is going to bring that out of the soil.
Issue with Carbon Offsets Doing Reforestation via Plantation Forests?
Plantation forests have perfect rows of trees and very little else is growing + pesticides.
In a 20-30 year old tree you dont have time to have deep roots so when they are cut down again they release everything back into the atmosphere.
PLUS, these types of projects destroy every other type of plant due to pesticides etc. Loosing everything in terms of soil storage. Nothing being kept in ground.
What would an optimal carbon credit reforestation project look like?
Reforesting primary forests
Or
Plantations that accept growth of other organisms that you dont exploit. Accepting very dense despite efficiency losses in your exploitation.
Magnitude for Amazon Importance vis-a-vis reforestation projects or versus other forest types.
One unit of surface in Amazon saves you from reforesting 10 to 20 units in other types of forests.
Impact of climate change on the capacity for forests to store carbon
Climate change is hurting capacity of forests to store carbon.
So that means first obviously right now we might get maximum capacity. In a lot of regions where it could dry up.
One potential tipping points of tropical forests (Amazon) is the moment where they are not longer big and dense enough to retain humidity and then they burn
Why is the Amazon about trend?
As you’re starting to exploit it and cut down, you’re releasing what the plants have and what is stored in the soil.
Reinforced by fact that amazon has lots of long stores of carbon that are great at capturing carbon.
90% of what’s absorbed in forests is re-emmited in droughts and wildfires.
Key Conclusions of Formula for Reforesting
Non-linear because have this less productive land but we’re always have a fixed unit of carbon saved for a unit land. Value increase a lot at the start then sacrificing more and more in consumption.
For low Pe (carbon price), we only convert cells with low agricultural productivity where the tradeoff is good and then as we want to convert higher productivity cells we up the price.
How do we know we can stop deforestation?
There are large amounts of deforestation and if you look at different forests it’s not the same everywhere. When you look at Non-Brazilian Amazon and see 5-7x more in Brazil it suggests there are policies that can be put in places → not a process that you can’t stop but there is a lot of it right now.
When do we reap most of the absorption for trees?
Early –> First 20-30 years
