II-Cost of Capital-4 Flashcards
Cost of Capital 意义何在?
- rationalize
- 四种capital resource,特殊说明
- 对企业进行估值需要未来现金流折现FCFF
折现率就是WACC,cost of capital,故取得合适的WACC,折现率低,企业估值更高
- debt/preferred stock/common stock/ retained earnings
留存收益:企业留作自己投资。若投资回报率低于股东用作其他投资的回报率,则钱应该还给股东
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
【WACC】
- equation
- also called:
also called: marginal cost of capital 【MCC】
如何确定企业的
capital structure 2
- 使用target capital structure
- 若信息不可得,则用现在的structure(假设已经是target)
- 分析企业近年stucture发展趋势,获得forcasted structure
- 用行业comparable average structure
计算cost of capital
框架
- 计算capital structure - 各项capital构成
- 如图
debt-rating approach: part of matrix pricing
计算cost of preferred stock
equation
cost of equity
基本模型
- 名称
- equation
- 分项解释
- 一般化
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- E(Ri)=RF+βi[E(RM)−RF]
- Rm-Rf: equity risk premium
- E(Ri)=RF+βi1(Factorriskpremium)1+βi2(Factorriskpremium)2+…+βij(Factorriskpremium)j
3 ways to estimate
equity risk premium
- historical data approach
- dividend discount model (DDM) approach
- survey approach直接问专家感觉
对β的estimate
影响因素4
- estimation period, and periodicity
- selection of appropriate market index
- smoothing technique towards 1
- small-capitalization companies
βasset / βequity
- 辨析
- 推导
- βequity转化至βasset是去杠杆的过程,βasset不含债,纯股东出资,数值通常小于βequity
- 见图
非上市公司β的求导
- 名称
- 过程
- pure play method
在CAPM中加入
country risk premium 【CRP】
- 公式
- CRP=
注意:分母
Annualized standard deviation of equity index/
Annualized standard deviation of the sovereign bond market in terms of the developed market currency
Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
计算cost of equity
- rationale
- equation
r = (D0*(1+g))/P0 +g
Gordon Growth Model (GGM): 假设D每年以g的速度增长,再按re折现求价格
Bond Yield plus Risk Premium Approach
求cost of equity
公式
re = rd + risk premium
Optimal Investment Dicision Chart
- 图形+曲线名称
- 解释上斜/下斜曲线
- 解释交点
项目的cost of capital
和公司整体的cost of capital
关系
- 项目风险大于avg, 则cost>WACC【加risk premium进行调整】, 若用WACC折现则NPV高估
- 项目风险小于avg,则cost<wacc></wacc>
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</wacc>