How to think straight about psychology Flashcards
Is Fredu’s importance to modern psychology exaggerated or underrated?
Exaggerated
Are Freduian concepts ejected by most empirically oriented psychologists?
Yes
What was wrong with Freud?
His methods of investigation were completely unrepresentative of how modern psychologists conduct their research
What is the most potent weapon in the modern psychologist’s aresenal of methods?
Controlled experimentation
How many divisions does the APA have? What does this entail?
54 divisions
This entails that there is a great diversity of content and perspectives in modern psychology
What are the two main organizations of psychologists?
APA
APS
What divisons out of the 54 are missing?
4 and 11
What do many people expect to learn from psychology?
One grand theory that unifies and explains all aspects of human behavior
Is the coherence of psychology increasing or decreasing?
Increasing
Hub Discipline
A science whose findings have unusually wide implications for other fields
What are the 2 things that justify psychology as an independent discipline?
- Psych studies the full range of human and nonhuman behavior with the techniques of science
- The applications that derive from this knowledge are scientifically based
How is psychology different from other behavioral fields?
It attempts to give the public two guarantees
- The conclusions about behavior that it produces derive from scientific evidence
- Practical applications of psychology have been derived from and tested by scientific methods
What is the first and most important step in understanding psychology?
To realize that its defining feature is that it is the data-based scientific study of behavior
What is psychology’s defining feature?
That it is the data-based scientific study of behavior
What is the primary way that people get confused in their thinking about psychology?
They fail to realize that it is a scientific discipline
Where does much confusion about psychology come from?
Bogus psychology aka pseudosciences
Is science defined by subject matter?
no
Is science defined by the use of particular apparatus?
No
What is science (as a way of thinking)
A way of thinking about and observing the universe that leads to a deep understanding of its workings
What features define science? (3)
- The use of systematic empiricism
- THe production of public knowledge
- The examination of solvable problems
Empiricism
The practice of relying on observation
Can knowledge that is considered “special” or for “one’s eyes only” have the status of scientific knowledge?
No, because it must be public
How does science make the idea of public verifiability concrete?
Via replication
What must be able to be done to a finding to be accepted by the scientific community?
It must be possible for someone else to duplicate it
Publicly Verifiable Knowledge
Findings presented to the scientific community in such a way that they can be replicated, criticized, or extended by anyone in the community
Peer Review
A procedure in which each paper submitted to a research journal is critiqued by several scientists, who then submit their criticisms to an editor
When is it a sure sign that an idea is bogus?
When lack of evidence is accompanied by a media campaign to publicize the claim
What is the only consumer protection that we have?
Peer review
What does a scientist mean by “solvable problem”?
Testable theory
What is the sequence of a scientific theory?
Theory -> prediction -> test
What makes a theory testable?
THe theory must have specific implications for observable events in the natural world; it must be empirically testable
The criterion of testability is often called the falsifiability criterion
What can ignorance be divided into?
Problems and mysteries
What is the difference between a problem and a mystery?
In problems, we know that an answer is possible and what that answer might look like even though we might not have the answer yet
In mysteries, we can’t even conceive of what an answer might look like
Science is a process that does what to mysteries?
Turns mysteries into problems
What is our personal model of behavior like?
A ragbag of general principles, homilies, and cliches about human behavior that we draw on when we need an explanation
What is the problem with our personal models of behavior?
Because it is commonsense knowledge, much of it contradicts itself and is therefore unfalsifiable
What is the enormous appeal of cliches?
WHen they are taken together as implicit explanations of behavior, they cannot be refuted
Folk wisdom is ____ __ ____ wisdom
After the fact
When many common cultural beliefs about behavior are subjected to empirical test, they turn out to be ___ (true/false)
False
IS it hard to generate instances of folk beliefs that are wrong?
No
Should you change your answer on a test?
Yes
While folk myth says that it decreases your score, this is wrong.
Research shows that when doubts arise, students are better off switching from their first answer
Psychology tests the empirical basis of the assumptions of ____ ____
Common sense
Has empirically based psychology received much opposition from the public?
Yes
Is psychological science “politically correct”?
No
Chapter 1 Summary
Psychology is an immensely diverse discipline covering a range of subjects that are not always tied together by common concepts. Instead, what unifies the discipline is that it uses scientific methods to understand behavior. The scientific method is not a strict set of rules; instead it is defined by some very general principles. 3 of the most important are that (1) science employs methods of systematic empiricism; (2) it aims for knowledge that is publicly verifiable; and (3) it seeks problems that are empirically solvable and that yield testable theories. The structured and controlled observations that define systematic empiricism are the subject of several later chapters. Science renders knowledge public by procedures such as peer review and mechanisms such as replication. Psychology is a young science and, thus, is often in conflict with so-called folk wisdom. This conflict is typical of all new sciences, but understanding it helps to explain some of the hostility directed toward psycholgy as a discipline. This characteristic of questioning common wisdom also makes psychology an exciting field. Many people are drawn to the discipline because it holds out the possiblity of actually testing “common sense” that has been accepted without question for centuries.
What did Benjamin Rush do to his theory on bloodletting when people had yellow fever?
He made it impossible to falsify his theory Either he helped them get better or they died because they were too far gone
The Falsifiability Criterion
For a specific theory to be useful, the predictions drawn from it must be specific. In telling us what should happen, it must also imply that certain things will not happen
A theory
An interrelated set of concepts that is used to explain a body of data and to make predictions about the results of future experiments
Hypotheses
Specific predictions that are derived from theories
A viable theory is one that has had many of their ____ confirmed
Hypotheses
The more specific and precise a prediction is, the more potention observations there are that can ____ it
Falsify
What do good theories do in regards to falsification?
They make predictions that expose themselves to falsification
What do bad theories do in regards to falsification?
They make predictions that are so general that they are almost bound to be true, or phrased in such a way that they are completely protected from falsification
What is wrong with Freudian theory?
It can explain everything, therefore making it scientifically useless
When does progress occur in regards to theories?
When a theory does not predict everything but instead makes specific predictions that tell us - in advance - something specific about the world
What is the most important reason for scientific disenchantment regarding ESP?
The catch-22 of ESP research
Should we look for quality or quantity regarding confirming instances?
We must look at both
Why is psychology a threat to the comfort that folk wisdom provides?
Because, as a science, it cannot be content with explanations that cannot be refuted
What is the process that allows scientists to generate theories that better refelct the nature of the world?
The process of continually adjusting theory when data do not accord with it
Which is better? Adjust our beliefs, or deny the evidence and cling to dysfunctional ideas?
Adjust our beliefs
How does science advance?
By ruling out incorrect hypotheses rather than immediately zeroing in on the perfect theory
What is the real danger to scientific progress?
Our natural human tendency to avoid exposing our beliefs to situations in which they might be shown to be wrong - scientists must avoid this tendency
Truthiness
The quality of a thing feeling true without any evidence suggesting that it actually was
Does science accept or reject truthiness?
Reject
What are the most instructive moments in our lives?
When we are proven wrong
What is the “mark of an educated mind” as stated by Aristotle?
To be able to entertain a thought without accepting it
Where does the strength of science come from?
From a scoail process where scientists constantly cross-check each others’ knowledge and conclusions
Laws (science)
Relationships that have been confirmed so many times
They are termed laws because it is doubtful that they will be overturned by future experimentation
When are scientists uncertain?
At the fringes of knowledge - where our understanding is currently being advanced
What are scientists not uncertain about?
The many facts that have been well established by replicable research
Does the falsification of a theory mean that scientists have to go back to square one?
No
Is the Earth a sphere or an oblate spheroid?
Oblate spheroid - the earth bulges a little at the equator and it is a little flat at the poles
Chapter 2 Summary
What scientists most often mean by a “solvable problem” is a “testable theory” The definition of a testable theory is a very specific one in science: it means that the theory is potentially falsifiable. If a theory is not falsifiable, then it has no implications for actual events in the natural world and, hence, is useless. Psychology has been plagued by unfalsifiable theories, and that is one reason why progress has been slow. Good theories are those that make specific predictions, and such theories are highly falsifiable. The confirmation of a specific prediction provides more support for the theory from which it was derived than the confirmation of a prediction that was not precise. In short, one implication of the falsifiability criterion is that all confirmations of theories are not equal. Theories that receive confirmation from highly falsifiable, highly specific predictions are to be preferred. Even when predictions are not confirmed, this falsification is useful to theory development. A falsified prediction indicates that a theory must either be discarded or altered so that it can account for the discrepent data pattern. Thus, it is by theory adjustment caused by falsified predictions that sciences such as psychology get closer to the truth.
Essentialism
THe idea that hte only good scientific theories are those that give ultimate explanations of the phenomena in terms of their underlying essences or their essential properties
Does science answer essentialist questions, or does it advance by developing operational definitions of concepts?
By developing operational definitions of concepts
Do scientists consider questions about “ultimates” to be answerable?
No
WHat is a common indication of the essentialist attitude?
An obsessive concern about defining the meaning of terms and concepts before the search for knowledge about them begins
“But we must first define our terms”
Are the meanings of concepts in science termined before or after extensive investigation of the phenomena that the term relates to?
After
WHat does essentialism lead us into?
Endless arguments about words
What has been the key to progress in all of the sciences in regards to essentialism?
To abandon it and to adopt operationism
Operationism
The idea that concepts in scientific theories must in some way be grounded in, or linked to, observable events that can be measured
Which is an operational definition?
1) Describing hunger as “that gnawing feeling I get in my stomach”
2) Describing hunger based off of definitions that involve some measurable context such as blood sugar levels
2
Is a concept in science defined by a set of operations, or by a single behavioral event or task?
A set
What do operational definitions force us to do?
Think carefully and empirically
What does operationalizing a concept in science involve?
Measurement
Measurement
Assigning a number to an observation via some rule
What 2 properties should a number have in science?
Reliability and validity
REliability
The consistency of a measuring instrument - whether you would arrive at the same measurement if you assessed the same concept multiple times
About consistency and nothing else
Is reliability alone sufficient?
It is necessary but not sufficient
Validity (COntruct Validity)
Whether a measuring instrument is measuring what it is supposed to be measuring
Test-Retest Reliability
“It would give virtually the same readings on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday”
Interrater Reliability
“It would give the same reading no matter who used it”
What are we looking for in operational definitions in regards to reliability and validity
High reliability and high validity
Does high reliability and low validity get us anywhere?
No
Does low reliability and low validity get us anywhere?
No, it is completely useless
Does low reliability and high validity get us anywhere?
No, and it is impossible because you cannot claim to be measuring validly if you cannot measure reliably
Are most concepts defined directly or indirectly?
Indirectly
Latent Constructs
There are conce[ts that are not directly defined by observable operations but linked to other concepts that are
common in psychology
What does the “type A behavior pattern” provide an example of?
A concept with an indirect operational definition
All conce[ts acquire their meaning partially through their link to…
Other obsercations
When people think and talk about psychology, they often fail to recognize the need for…
Operationism
Preexisting-Bias Problem
People come into a study of psychology with emotionally held beliefs about it
What is one of the greatest sources of misunderstanding and one of the biggest impediments to the accurate presentation of psychological findings in the media?
The fact that many technical concepts in psychology are designated by words used in everyday language
What is an issue with technical and colloquial speaking?
It is often unclear to a layperson whether a word is being used in a technical or colloquial sense
Is operationism unique to psychology?
No, it is characteristic of all sciences
What is the problem with all intuitively based systems of belief?
THey have no mechanism for deciding among conflicting claims
Why do many people seem to abandon the idea of operationism when they approach psychology?
They seek essentialist answers to certain human problems
What is a problem with psychology in regards to essentialism and the public?
The public demands answers to essentialist questions that it does not routinely demand of other sciences
Parsimony
WHen two theories have the same explanatory power, the simpler theory is preferred, because this theory will likely be the more falsifiable of the two
Chapter 3 Summary
Operational definitions are definitions of concepts stated in terms of observable operations that can be measured. One of the main ways that we ensure that theories are falsifiable is by making certain that the key concepts in theories have operational definitions stated in terms of well-replicated behavioral observations. Operational definitions are one major mechanism that makes scientific knowledge publicly verifiable. Such definitions are in the public domain so that the theoretical concepts that they define are testable by all - unlike “intuitive”, nonempircal definitions that are the special possession of particular individuals and not open to testing by everyone. Because psychology employs terms from common discourse, such as “intelligence” and “anciety”, and because many people have preexisting nothions bout what these terms mean, the necessity of operationally defining these terms is often not recognized. Psychology is like all other sciences in requiring operational definitions of its terms. However, people often cldemand answers to essentialist questions of psychology that they do not demand of other sciences. No science provides such answers to ultimate questions. Instead, psychology, like other sciences, seeks continually to refine its operational definitions so that the concepts in theories more accurately reflect the way the world actually is.
Are case studies and testimonials good evidence for the evaluation of psychological theories and treatments?
No, they are virtually worthless
Case Study
An investigation that looks intensely and in detail at a single individual or very small number of individuals. The usefulness of case study information is strongly determined by how far scientific investigation has advanced in a particular area. The insights gained may be useful in the early stages of the investigation of certain problems as indicators of which variables deserve more intense study
When may case studies be useful?
In the early stages of investigation
Are case studies useful at the later stages of investigation? Why?
No, because they cannot be used as confirming or disconfirming evidence
What is the problem with testimonials and case studies?
They are isolated events
What is the goal of experimental design?
TO structure events so that support of one particular explanation simultaneously disconfirms other explanations
Why are control groups formed?
So that, when their results are compared with those from an experimental group, some alternative explanations are ruled out
Placebo Effect
The tendency of people to report that any treatment has helped them, regardless of whether it has a real therapeutic elemnt
What % is the placebo effect?
29%
Spontaneous Remission
Many people with psychological problems of milk to moderate severity report improvement after receiving psychotherapy. However, controlled studies have demonstrated that some propertion of this recovery rate is due to a combination of placebo effects and the mere passage of time
What is the problem with placebo effects and testimonials?
Placebo effects are so potent that, no matter how ludicrous the therapy, if it is administered to a large group of people a few will be willing to give a testimonial to its efficacy
Vividness Effect
When faced with a problem-solving or decision-making situation, people retrieve from memory the information that seems relevant to the situation at hand. Thus, they are more likely to use the facts that are more accessible to solve a problem or make a decision.
Jumbo jet crashes will stop us flying but we will drive even though its is more dangerous
Person A wishes person B safety, when person A is in more danger
What is one factor that strongly affects vividness accessibility?
The vividness of information
What does the viviness of personal testimony often overshadow?
Other information of much higher reliability
Most of the complex influences on our society are accurately captured only by numbers. What is the problem with this?
until the public learns to treat these numerical abstractions of reality as seriously as images, public opinion will be as fickle as the latest image to flicker across the screen.
is it only the public that is plagued by the vividness problem?
no, experienced clinical practitioners struggle all the time with the tendency to have their judgment clouded by the overwhelming impact of the single case.
P.T. Barnum Effect
The vast majority of individuals will endorse generalized personality summaries as accurate and specific descriptions of themselves
it is the basis of belief in the accuracy of palm readers and astrologists
what does the Barnum effect provide an example of?
it provides an example of how easy it is to generate testimonials and, of course, show why they are worthless
what is the opportunity cost of pseudo-sciences?
people spend time and money on pseudo-sciences and they gain nothing and waste time
what do pseudoscientists usually claim?
that you can have high returns without risk
what do testimonials do in regards to pseudosciences?
testimonials open the door to the development of and the believe in pseudosciences
Chapter 4 Summary
Case study and testimonial evidence is useful in psychology in the very earliest stages of an investigation, when it is important to find interesting phenomena and important variables to examine futher. As useful as case study evidence is in the early stages of scientific investigation, it is virtually useless in the later stages, when theories are being put to specific tests. This is because, as an isolated phenomenon, the outcome of a case study leaves many alternative explanations. One way to understand why case studies and testimonial evidence are useless for theory testing is to consider the placebo effect. The placebo effect is the tendency of people to report that any treatment has helped them, regardless of whether the treatment had a real therapeutic element. The existence of placebo effects makes it impossible to prove the effectiveness of a psychological treatment by producing testimonials to its effectiveness. The reason is that the placebo effect guarantees that no matter that the treatment, it will be possible to produce testimonial evidence to its effectiveness. Despite the uselessness of testimonial evidence in theory testing, psychological research has indicated that such evidence is often weightedquite heavily by people because of the vividness effect: People overweight evidence that is more vivid and, hence, more retrievable from memory. One thing that is particularly vivid for most people is testimonial evidence. The rsult is an overreliance on such evidence in the justrification of specific psychological claims. In fact, testimonial and case study evidence cannot be used to justify general theoretical claims.
Which is more relevant in regards to relationships? Strength or nature?
Nature
What are 2 problems that prevent the drawing of a causal inference?
- The Third-Variable Problem
2. The Directionality Problem
WHat does the Third-Variable Problem often result from?
Selection Bias
The Third-Variable Problem
The fact that the correlation between the 2 variables may not indicate a direct causal path between them but may arise because both variables are related to a third variable that has not even been measured
Multiple Regression
Allows the correlation between 2 variables to be recalculated after the influence of other variables is removed, or “factored out” or “partialed out”
Why is academic achievement linked to private school attendance?
Not because of any direct causal mechanism, but because the family background and the general cognitive level of students in private schools are different from those of children in public schools
Heat Hypothesis
Uncomfortable warm temperatures produce increases in aggressive motives and aggressive behavior
What is the correlation between eye movement patterns and reading ability like?
Poorer readers make more erratic movements, display more regressions, and make more fixations per line of text
Selection Bias
Refers to the relationships between certain subject and anvironmental variables that may arise when people with different biological, behavioral, and psychological characteristics select different types of environments.
Selection bias creates a spurious correlation between environmental characteristrics and behavioral-biological characteristics
Jumping to conclusions when selection effects are present can lead us to make bad…
Real world choices
The consumer’s rule regarding bias/cuasation?
Be on the lookout for instances of selection bias, and avoid inferring causation when data are only correlational
CHapter 5 Summary
The central point of this chapter was to convey that the mere existence of a relationship between 2 variables does not guarantee that changes in one are causing changes in the other. The point is the correlation does not imply causation. 2 problems in interpreting correlational relationships were discussed. In the third-variable problem, the correlation between the 2 variables may not indicate a direct causal path between them but instead may arise because both variables are related to a third variable that has not even been measured. If, in fact, the potential third variable has been measured, correlational statistics such as partial correlation can be used to assess whether that third variable is determining the relationship.
The other thing that makes the interpretation of correlations difficult is the existence of the directionality problem: the fact that even if 2 variables are causally related, the direction of that relationship is not indicated by the mere presence of the correlation.
Selection bias is the reason for many spurious relationships in the behavioral sciences: the fact that people choose their own environments to some extent and thus create correlations between behavioral characteristics and environmental variables. As the example of pellegra demonstrated, and as will be illustrated extensively in the next 2 chapters, the only way to ensure that selection bias is not operating is to conducta true experiment in which the key variable is manipulated.
Scientific thinking is based on the ideas of ____, ____, and ____
COmparison, control, manipulation
What is the essential goal of experimental design?
To isolate a variable
How do scientists weed out the maximum number of incorrect explanations?
Either by directly controlling the experimental situation or by observing the kinds of naturally occurring situations that allow them to test alternative explanations
The variable manipulated is called the…
Independent variable
The variable upon which the independent variable is posited to have an effect is called the…
Dependent variable
The best experimental design is achieved when?
WHen the scientist can manipulate the variable of interest and control all the other extraneous variables affecting the situation
Why do scientists attempt to manipulate a variable and to hold all other variables constant?
In order to eliminate alternative explanations
Which generates stronger inferences? Direct or indirect manipulation?
Direct
Random Assignment
Not the same thing as random sampling
The subjects themselves do not determine which experimental condition they will be in but, instead, are randomly assigned to one of the experimental groups
COnfounding Variables
Extraneous variables that can affect dependent variables
Ex. IQ test scores, home environment
2 strengths of random assignment
- In any given experiment, as the sample size gets larger, random assignment ensures that the 2 groups are relatively matched on all extraneous variables
In experiments where the matching is not perfect, the lack of systematic bias in random assignement allows us to be confident in any conclusions about cause as long as the study can be replicated. This is because, across a series of such experiments, differences between the 2 groups on confounding variables will balance out
Field Experiment
A variable is manipulated in a nonlaboratory setting
What must be do to maximize the number servered by finding out what works best in regards to social aid?
By doing actual experiments on the effects of social aid in real environments - you must run a “True Experiment”
What did the case of Clever Hans help illustrate?
The importance of carefully distinguishing between the description of a phenomenon and the explanation of a phenomenon
Inferring that the horse had mathermatical abilities was a “hypothesized explanation” of the phenomenon
Facilitated communication - what is it and what is wrong with it?
A technique for unlocking communicative capacity in nonverabl autistic individuals
The autistic child’s performance depended on tactile cuing by the facilitator
SHaken Baby Syndrome
A theory of why a particular child has been presented with head trauma. The phenomenon is the nature of the head trauma itself. The precise description of the trauma is what has to be explained by whatever theory we have of how the trauma occurred
What must scientists do to separate the causal influence of many simultaneously occurring events?
They must create situations that will never occur in the real world. Scientific experimentation breaks apart the natural correlations in the world to isolate the influence of a single variable
Intuitive Physics
People’s beliefs about the motion of objects
These beliefs are often at striking variance from how moving objects actually behave
Why are the layperson’s beliefs of motion so inaccurate?
Because his or her observations are “natural” rather than controlled in the manner of the scientist’s
What do the many inadequacies in people’s intuitive theories of behavior illustrate?
Why we need the controlled experimentation of psychology: so that we can progress beyond our flat-earth conceptions of human behavior to a more accurate scientific conceptualization
Chapter 6 Summary
The heart of the experimental method involves manipulation and control. This is why an experiment allows stronger causal inferences than a correlational study. In a correlational study, the investigator simply observes whether the natural fluctuation in two variables displays a relationship. By contrast, in a true experiment the investigator manipulates the variable hypothesized to be the cause and looks for an effect on the variable hypothesized to be the effect while holding all other variables constant by control and randomization. This method removes the third-variable problem present in correlational studies. The third-variable problem arises because, in the natural world, many different things are related. The experimental method may be viewed as a way of prying apart these naturally occurring relationships. It does so because it isolates one particular variable by manipulting it and holding everything else constant. However, in order to pry apart naturally occurring relationships, scientists often have to create special conditions that are unknown in the natural world.
Is the artificiality of scientific experimentation a weakness?
No, it is the very thing that gives the scientific method its unique power to yield explanations about the nature of the world
Are random sampling and random assignment the same thing?
No, they are similar only in that they make use of the properties of random number generation
Random Sampling
Refers to how subjects are chosen to be part of a study
Not a requirement for research
Draws a sample from the population in a manner that ensures that each member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen
It is not a true experiment unless random assignment is ALSO used
What are the requirements for a true experiment?
Random sampling AND random assignment
Random Assignment
Is achieved when each subject is just as likely to be assigned to the control group as to the experimental group
WHich does most psychological research not employ? Random sampling or random assignment?
Random sampling because it is not necessary
If random assignment is employed in a study, then it becomes a ___ ____. If random assignment is not employed, then the study is a ___ ____.
True experiment
Correlational investigation
What is an example of directly applied research?
Election polling
Basic Research
Research that focuses primarily on theory testing
Dark Adaptation
The process through which our eyes can see in the dark
Almost every medical advance in the treatment of human illness has involved data from…
Animal studies
College SOphomore Problem
The worry that, because college sophomores are the subjects in an extremely large number of psychological investigations, the generality of the results is in question
Sometimes overstated, particularly by those who are unfamiliar with the full range of activities that go on in psychology
Weapons Effect
The mere presence of a weapon in a person’s environment increases the probability of an aggressive response. This finding originated in the laboratory and is a perfect example of an unrepresentative situation
It is a process of automatic priming in semantic memory
In psychology, where do most replication failures come from?
They are rarely due to peculiarities, but instead, are mostly due to subtle differences in experimental stimuli and methods
Chapter 7 Summary
Some psychological research is applied work in which the goal is to relate the results of the study directly to a particular situation. In such applied research, in which the results are intended to be extrapolated directly to a naturalistic situation, questions of the randomenss of the sample and the representativeness of the conditions are important because of the findings of the study are going to be applied directly. However, most psychological research is not of this type. It is basic research designed to test theories of the underlying mechanisms that influence behavior. In most basic research, the findings are applied only indirectly through modifications in a theory that will at some later point be applied to some practical problem. In basic research of this type, random sampling of subjects and representative situations are not an issue because the emphasis is on testing the universal prediction of a theory. In fact, artificial situations are deliberately constructed in theory-testing basic research because they help to isolate the critical variable for study and to control extraneous variables. Thus, the fact that psychology experiments are “not like real life” is a strength rather than a weakness.
What is one of the main problems that arises from breakthrough headlines?
The implication that all problems in science are solved when a single, crucial experiment completely decides the issue, or that theoretical advance is the result of a single insight
What must a new throy in science do to be considered an advance?
It must make contact with previously established empirical facts; it must not only explain new facts but also account for old ones
How do scientists usually find answers from experiments?
THe must evaluate data from dozens of experiments, each containing some flaws but each providing a small part of the answer
Are experiments in science perfectly designed?
No, not one experiment is perfectly designed
The Principle of COnverging Evidence (or converging operations)
When evidence from a wide range of experiments points in a similar direction, then the evidence has converged. A reasonably strong conclusion is justified even though no one experiment was perfectly designed
Thus, the principle urges us to base conclusions on data that arise from a number of slightly different sources
The principle allows us to draw stronger conclusions due to consistency of experimental procedure
When is research highly convergent?
When a series of experiments consistently supports a given theory while collectively eliminating the most important competing theory
Just as theories are confirmed by converging evidence, they are also ___ by converging results
Disconfirmed
What is the reason for stressing the importance of convergence?
Conclusions in psych are often based on the principle of converging evidence
The principle can be viewed as a counterweight to the warnings against overinterpreting tentative knoweldge
Are longitudinal correlational techniques controversial?
Yes
Field Experiment
A study conducted in the field rather than in the lab
What are the drawbacks of epidemiological studies?
They are always correlational, and the possiblity of spurious links between variables is high
What are the drawbacks of laboratory studies?
They can be highly controlled, but the subjects are often animals rather than humans
What are the drawbacks of clinical trials?
Theyre are many problems of control because of placebo effects and expectations
WHich is empirical evidence usually found in? Breakthroughs (great leaps) or scientific consensus (gradual synthesis)
gradual synthesis
Unresponsive BYstander Phenomenon
The failure of some people to respond with help when observing another individual in an emergency situation
What is the progression from case studies?
Case studies –> correlational studies –> experiments with manipulated variables
Research on a particular problem often proceeds from weaker methods to ones that allow more powerful conclusions to be drawn
When does correlational evidence surpass experimental manipulation evidence?
In areas where there are ethical reasons that disallow manipulation
ex. birth order, human malnutrition, sex, age - they cannot be manipulated
Do scientific concepts evolve?
Yes
Meta-ANalysis
The combining of evidence from the disparate studies to form a conclusion
The results of several studies that address the same research hypothesis are combined statistically
Chapter 8 Summary
In this chapter, we have seen how the breakthrough model of scientific advance is a bad model for psychology and why the gradual-synthesis model provides a better framework for understanding how conclusions are reached in psychology. The principle of converging operations describes how research results are synthesized in psychology: No one experiment is definitive, but each helps us to rule out at least some alternative explanations and, thus, aids in the process of homing in on the truth. The use of a variety of different methods makes psychologists more confident that their conclusions rest on a solid empircal fohndation. FInally, when conceptual change occurs, it adheres to the principle of connectivity: New theories not only must account for new scientific data but must also provide an explanation of the previously existing database
Behavior is ___ determined
Multiply
Any particular behavior is caused not by one variable but by a large number of different variables.
To conclude that there is a significant causal connection between variable A and behavior B does not mean that variable A is the only cause of behavior B
People often forget that it is multiply determined
People often forget that behavior is multiply determined. They seem to want to find the so-called “____ ____” - the one cause of the behavioral outcome that interests them
Magic Bullet
If the behavior in question is of great importance, then knowing how to control only a small propertion of it can be…
Extremely useful
Does the fact that an outcome is determined by many different variables reduce the importance of any one variable that is causally related to the outcome, even if the variable accounts for only a small portion of the outcome?
No
The Concept of Interaction
The magnitude of the efffect that one variable has may depend on the level of another variable
When do people have a tendency to ignore the principle of multiple causation?
When they have preexisting bias
Zero Sum attitude
All causes compete with one another and that emphasizing one necessarily reduces the emphasis on another
THis view of causes is incorrect
Zero Sum Game
One person’s gain is another’s loss
Often characterizes our discussions of emotionally charged issues
We usually tend to forget the principle of multiple causation
Are most problems that psychologists investigate single determined or multiply determined?
Multiply
Chapter 9 Summary
The single lesson of this chapter is an easy but important one. WHen thinking about the causes of behavior, think in terms of multiple causes. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that a particular behavior must have a single cause. Most behaviors of any complexity are multiply determined. A variety of factors act to cause their occurrence. Sometimes these factors intereact when in combination. That is, the effect of the variables acting together is different than what one would have expected from simply studying them in isolation.
Probabilistic Trend
It is more likely than not but does not hold true in all cases
Ex. the relationship between sex and height is stated in terms of likelihoods and probabilities rather than certainties
Is probabilistic prediction real prediction?
Yes
Virtually all the facts and relationships that have been uncovered by the science of psychology are stated in terms of…
Probabilities
Person-Who statistics
Aka Old Joe Ferguson
Situations in which well-established statistical trends are questions because someone knows a “person who” went against the trend
Why is the person-who argument used so frequently?
Because people experience great difficulty in dealing with probabilistic information
What may be the Achilles’ heal of human cognition?
Probabilistic reasoning
Aggregate or Actuarial Prediction
The prediction of outcomes based on group characteristics
The ability to forecast group trends accurately is often very informative
WHat is a good way to start developing the skill of probabilistic thinking?
To become aware of the most common fallacies that arise when people reason statistrically
The Vividness Problem
There is a tendency for concrete single-case information to overwhelm more abstract probabilistic information in people’s judgements
Cognitive Illusions
Even when people know the correct answer, they may be drawn to an incorrect conclusion by the structure of the problem
What is the case with smaller samples?
THey will always generate more extreme valuesq
Is the gambler’s fallacy restricted to games of chance?
No, it operates in almost everything
WHy will truly random sequences often not seem random to people?
Because of our tendency to see patterns everywhere
Chapter 10 Summary
As in most sciences, the conclusions that are drawn from psychological research are probabilistic conclusions - generalizations that hold more often than not but that do not apply in every single case. The predictions derived from psychological findings and theories are still useful even though they are not 100 percent accurate. One thing that prevents the understanding of much psychological research is that many people have difficulty thinking in probabilistic terms. In this chapter, we discussed several well-researched examples of how probabilistic reasoning goes astray for many people: they make insufficient use of probabilistic information when they also have vivid testimonial evidence available; they fail to take into account the fact that larger samples give more accurate estimates of population values; and, finally, they display the gambler’s fallacy (the tendency to see links among events that are really independent). The gambler’s fallacy derives from a more general tendency that we will discuss in the next chapter: the tendency to fail to recognize the role of chance in determining outcomes.
When is the quest for conceptual understanding maladaptive for humans?
WHen it takes place in an environment in which there is nothing to conceptualize
When we say that something is due to chance, what don’t we mean, and what do we mean?
We do not necessarily mean that it is indeterminate
We mean that it is currently indeterminable
Illusory Correlation
The tendency to explain chance events
People tend to see their expected correlation even in random events
The Illusion of COntrol
The tendency to believe that personal skill can affect outcomes determined by chance
Just-World Hypothesis
The fact that people tend to believe that they live in a world in which people get what they deserve
IS chance biased or unbiased?
Unbiased
Coincidence
An occurrence of related events that is due to chance
Oddmatch
Signifies two evence whose co-occurrence strikes us as odd or strange
Do oddmatches occur purely due to chance?
Yes
The laws of probability guarantee that as the number of events increases, the probability that some oddmatch will ocur…
Becomes very high
Chapter 11 Smmary
The role of chance in psychology is often misunderstood by the lay public and by clinical practitioners alike. People find it difficult to recognize that part of the variability in behavioral outcomes is determined by chance factors. That is, variation in behavior is in part a function of random factors and, thus, psychologists should not claim to be able to predict behavior case by case. Instead, psychological predictions are probabilistic - predictions of aggregate trends.
The error if implying that psychological predictions can be made at the level of the individual is often made by clinical psychologists themselves, who sometimes mistakenly imply that clinical training confers an intuitive ability to predict an individual case. Instead, decades’ worth of research has consistenly indicated that actuarial prediction (prediction in terms of group statistical tends) is superior to clinical prediction in accounting for human behavior. There is no evidence of a clinical intuition that can predict whether a statistical trend will hold or not in a particular case. THus, statistical information should never be set aside when one is predicting behavior. Statistical prediction also correctly signals that there will always be errors and uncertainties when one is predicting human behavior.
Actuarial Prediction
Predictions based on group trends derived from statistical records
Clinical/Case Prediction
Predictions of the outcomes of particular individuals
Doesn’t work
Which is superior? Actuarial Prediction of Clinical PRediction?
Actuarial
WHat makes Actuarial prediction better than clinical prediction?
Consistency
What are the 3 works on psychology that most people may come across?
Pseudoscience
Classics (Freud) etc
Self-help literature
What are the “big three” in self help literature?
Making more money
Losing more weight
Having better sex
Where does psychology need to improve?
Communication to the public
Describe the Jekyll and Hyde of psychology?
Extremely rigorous science exists right alongside pseudoscientific and antiscientific attitudes.
Much of our personal psychological knowledge is ___ knowledge
Recipe
We do certain things because we think they will lead others to behave in a certain way
What is the main thing that distinguishes personal psychology from scientific psychology?
The science of psychology seeks to validate its recipe knowledge empirically
What are psuedoscientific claims usually based on?
Ad hoc hypotheses
Emphasis on confirmation
Tendency to place the burden of proof on skeptics
Excessive reliance on testimonial evidence
Evasion of peer review
Lack of connectivity
