Grammar—Treverton Flashcards
Jeremiah Report
A report by Adm. David Jeremiah, which concluded that intelligence was stuck in the Cold War era, and thus ineffective.
What is Treverton’s opinion on the line between intel and policy
The line ought to be blurred.
Business of Intelligence
The business of intelligence is secrets.
Mind-set
In India, the IC didn’t work with proper mindsets (in this case, it relied on mirror imaging).
Dramatic changes
The number of targets, consumers, and information has drastically increased.
Puzzles-Mysteries
Puzzles: Problems that, theoretically, have answers.
Mysteries: Problems that cannot be answered with certainty.
SMO
Support to Military Operations
Intel brokers
Aides who should live close to policymakers to brief them.
Mexican peso crisis 1994
Mexico’s financial reserves were exhausted, so President Zedillo devalued the peso by 15%. Global market speculative attacks on the peso increased, and the government let the peso float freely. The peso then fell extremely low and inflation increased 40%, leading to a recession.
Excursions’ role
Considering what would need to happen to make an excursion come to be.
Job of Analysts
Paying close attention to “special” information
Push-pull
The intelligence cycle is driven by intel pushing, rather than policy pulling.
PDB
President’s Daily Briefing
NGO
Non Governmental Organization
FFRDC
Federally Funded Research and Development Centers
How should long-term planning affect the IC?
Long-term planning is not done correctly if it does not affect the IC’s daily life.
Estimative judgments
A supported “hunch.”
Intel is anticipating
Intelligence officers need to be able to anticipate what policymakers will want to know.
Policy officials: “different”
Policymakers are usually not in their positions as long as intelligence officers are in theirs. Thus, policymakers often have different perspectives about danger and Washington’s influence.
Nice to know
Information that is not imperative, but still useful to have.
Right questions
Intel officers should be able to answer all the wrong questions so that the right ones can be asked (e.g. be able to answer particulars on the Soviet economy so that policymakers could ask universally, “Will the economy survive or collapse?”)
Competing analysts
When multiple organizations/agencies are trying to find the same answers => more comprehensive knowledge of the scenario.
Bureaucratic geography
Being near different bureaucratic entities to play the game more effectively. (Ex. NSA doesn’t play as big a role in analytics because it’s so far removed from DC)
Military intel politicization
Regular politicization, except trying to pitch intelligence to the military rather than policymakers.
Assumptions & critical variables
Assumption: The belief that a certain entity will act in a certain way.
Critical Variable:The entity’s actual action.
(Ex. Believing a military will attack unprovoked is an assumption. A military action is a critical variable..)
National Purposes for intel
Finding out about and keeping tabs on foreign threats.
Battlefield Damage Assessment (BDA)
The practice of assessing damage done to a target.
Control of satellite recon.
During the Cold War, the Air Force and CIA had battles over who should be able to conduct aerial recon. Eventually, the NRO was created, which put an end to the struggle.
Precise geolocation
Pinpointing where something is, geographically.
Resolution vs. search area
Geographically limited, but precise pictures vs. fuzzier, but geographically spacious pictures.
Commercial imagery
NGOs that have satellite pictures.
Liaison activity
Sharing information, working with foreign intelligence, and police services.
Covert action
The obverse of espionage; influencing events in the short run in foreign countries.
Tyranny of numbers
DO officers are more likely to collect a great quantity of spies with low quality.
Dilemma of the Clandestine Service
The attributes that have allowed the DO to be effective are the opposite of accountability in the American system.
Mistrust between CIA and FBI
The CIA is not allowed to run spies in the US, so agents are handed off to the FBI when posted in the US. Failures have led to the two agencies mistrusting each other.
Reshaping of the Clandestine Service
Espionage should be narrowed to focus on potential foes near deployed US troops, governments of potentially destabilizing rogue states, and closed groups that may engage in terrorism against the US.
Economic espionage
The gathering of financial intelligence to aid activities such as negotiations.
Lookers
Informants who are not spies: they do not need to spy things out, only to look around.
Good enough to act
Choosing the option that is the most evidence-backed when action is imperative.
New York Times test
Covert action should only be used 1). If overt action is out of the question; 2). If you are prepared for that action to become public, perhaps even before the action is completed.
Containment
Stop the expansion of an enemy. The primary doctrine during the Cold War.
National Power
The US is the sole superpower in terms of military effectiveness and capability. Our defense budget is more than the combined totals of the next five countries.
Globalization
Global transactions are multiplying exponentially.
Demographics
Poor countries are growing quickly while rich countries grow at a much slower pace. This could increase the disparity between poor and rich.
Asymmetric Strategies
Tactics that utilize weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or biological weapons, or locate combat in urban areas to deny the U.S. moral high ground.
Critical Infrastructure
Power, air traffic control, banking, and telecommunications.
