Grammar—Treverton

Question 1

Jeremiah Report

Answer 1

A report by Adm. David Jeremiah, which concluded that intelligence was stuck in the Cold War era, and thus ineffective.

Question 2

What is Treverton’s opinion on the line between intel and policy

Answer 2

The line ought to be blurred.

Question 3

Business of Intelligence

Answer 3

The business of intelligence is secrets.

Question 4

Mind-set

Answer 4

In India, the IC didn’t work with proper mindsets (in this case, it relied on mirror imaging).

Question 5

Dramatic changes

Answer 5

The number of targets, consumers, and information has drastically increased.

Question 6

Puzzles-Mysteries

Answer 6

Puzzles: Problems that, theoretically, have answers.
Mysteries: Problems that cannot be answered with certainty.

Question 7

SMO

Answer 7

Support to Military Operations

Question 8

Intel brokers

Answer 8

Aides who should live close to policymakers to brief them.

Question 9

Mexican peso crisis 1994

Answer 9

Mexico’s financial reserves were exhausted, so President Zedillo devalued the peso by 15%. Global market speculative attacks on the peso increased, and the government let the peso float freely. The peso then fell extremely low and inflation increased 40%, leading to a recession.

Question 10

Excursions’ role

Answer 10

Considering what would need to happen to make an excursion come to be.

Question 11

Job of Analysts

Answer 11

Paying close attention to “special” information

Question 12

Push-pull

Answer 12

The intelligence cycle is driven by intel pushing, rather than policy pulling.

Question 13

PDB

Answer 13

President’s Daily Briefing

Question 14

NGO

Answer 14

Non Governmental Organization

Question 15

FFRDC

Answer 15

Federally Funded Research and Development Centers

Question 16

How should long-term planning affect the IC?

Answer 16

Long-term planning is not done correctly if it does not affect the IC’s daily life.

Question 17

Estimative judgments

Answer 17

A supported “hunch.”

Question 18

Intel is anticipating

Answer 18

Intelligence officers need to be able to anticipate what policymakers will want to know.

Question 19

Policy officials: “different”

Answer 19

Policymakers are usually not in their positions as long as intelligence officers are in theirs. Thus, policymakers often have different perspectives about danger and Washington’s influence.

Question 20

Nice to know

Answer 20

Information that is not imperative, but still useful to have.

Question 21

Right questions

Answer 21

Intel officers should be able to answer all the wrong questions so that the right ones can be asked (e.g. be able to answer particulars on the Soviet economy so that policymakers could ask universally, “Will the economy survive or collapse?”)

Question 22

Competing analysts

Answer 22

When multiple organizations/agencies are trying to find the same answers => more comprehensive knowledge of the scenario.

Question 23

Bureaucratic geography

Answer 23

Being near different bureaucratic entities to play the game more effectively. (Ex. NSA doesn’t play as big a role in analytics because it’s so far removed from DC)

Question 24

Military intel politicization

Answer 24

Regular politicization, except trying to pitch intelligence to the military rather than policymakers.

Question 25

Assumptions & critical variables

Answer 25

Assumption: The belief that a certain entity will act in a certain way.
Critical Variable:The entity’s actual action.
(Ex. Believing a military will attack unprovoked is an assumption. A military action is a critical variable..)

Question 26

National Purposes for intel

Answer 26

Finding out about and keeping tabs on foreign threats.

Question 27

Battlefield Damage Assessment (BDA)

Answer 27

The practice of assessing damage done to a target.

Question 28

Control of satellite recon.

Answer 28

During the Cold War, the Air Force and CIA had battles over who should be able to conduct aerial recon. Eventually, the NRO was created, which put an end to the struggle.

Question 29

Precise geolocation

Answer 29

Pinpointing where something is, geographically.

Question 30

Resolution vs. search area

Answer 30

Geographically limited, but precise pictures vs. fuzzier, but geographically spacious pictures.

Question 31

Commercial imagery

Answer 31

NGOs that have satellite pictures.

Question 32

Liaison activity

Answer 32

Sharing information, working with foreign intelligence, and police services.

Question 33

Covert action

Answer 33

The obverse of espionage; influencing events in the short run in foreign countries.

Question 34

Tyranny of numbers

Answer 34

DO officers are more likely to collect a great quantity of spies with low quality.

Question 35

Dilemma of the Clandestine Service

Answer 35

The attributes that have allowed the DO to be effective are the opposite of accountability in the American system.

Question 36

Mistrust between CIA and FBI

Answer 36

The CIA is not allowed to run spies in the US, so agents are handed off to the FBI when posted in the US. Failures have led to the two agencies mistrusting each other.

Question 37

Reshaping of the Clandestine Service

Answer 37

Espionage should be narrowed to focus on potential foes near deployed US troops, governments of potentially destabilizing rogue states, and closed groups that may engage in terrorism against the US.

Question 38

Economic espionage

Answer 38

The gathering of financial intelligence to aid activities such as negotiations.

Question 39

Lookers

Answer 39

Informants who are not spies: they do not need to spy things out, only to look around.

Question 40

Good enough to act

Answer 40

Choosing the option that is the most evidence-backed when action is imperative.

Question 41

New York Times test

Answer 41

Covert action should only be used 1). If overt action is out of the question; 2). If you are prepared for that action to become public, perhaps even before the action is completed.

Question 42

Containment

Answer 42

Stop the expansion of an enemy. The primary doctrine during the Cold War.

Question 43

National Power

Answer 43

The US is the sole superpower in terms of military effectiveness and capability. Our defense budget is more than the combined totals of the next five countries.

Question 44

Globalization

Answer 44

Global transactions are multiplying exponentially.

Question 45

Demographics

Answer 45

Poor countries are growing quickly while rich countries grow at a much slower pace. This could increase the disparity between poor and rich.

Question 46

Asymmetric Strategies

Answer 46

Tactics that utilize weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or biological weapons, or locate combat in urban areas to deny the U.S. moral high ground.

Question 47

Critical Infrastructure

Answer 47

Power, air traffic control, banking, and telecommunications.