General Election Case Studies Flashcards
What was the outcome of the 2024 election
Seat tally:
Labour - 412 (Majority)
Tories - 121
Lib Dems - 71
What were the main reasons for Labour’s landslide? (2024)
- Reform UK was able to split many of the right wing votes
- the errors from the conservative party such as their sleaze and the mistakes of Liz Truss shifted voters
Why did the conservative campaign fail? (2024)
- There were poor optics created by the conservative party around its MPs
- The increase in a powerful opposition halted their growth
- Poor leadership
- Lots of scandals and controversy surrounded the party
What were the biggest manifesto policies in the 2024 election?
- VAT on private schools, this was the only major change set out by Labour
- Many of the Labour policies mirrored that of the Tories
How did the media effect the 2024 election?
- The papers and media in general saw a shift from more pro-conservative media towards more neutral and the Sun, which had been pro-conservatives since 2010, had the headline ‘time for a new manager’ on polling day
- with digital marketing it is said that Labour spent £2.9 million compared to Conservatives £1.7 million
Example of reform splitting the vote?
In Portsmouth North we saw the vote split
Martin (Labour) - 14,495
Mordaunt (Conservative) - 13,715
Todd (Reform) - 8,501
It is likely that if Todd did not run that the conservatives would have won the seat.
What was the outcome if the 2019 General election
Seat tally:
Conservatives - 368 (majority)
Labour - 191
SNP - 55
What was the main thing that defined the 2019 general election
Brexit
What were the different manifestos (2019)
Tory - Get Brexit done, more NHS employees, no tax rises
Labour - renegotiate Brexit and 2nd ref, increased funding for NHS but very cryptic, no tax rises for 95%
Lib Dems - Scrap Brexit as a whole
What was good about the conservative campaign (2019)
- very clear about getting Brexit done
- they were picking up on Corbyn’s failures by listening to people and being simplistic
- Isaac Levido took full control over media campaigning
- Boris united the party by removing 21 MPs including big beasts
What damaged the Labour party (2019)
- Jeremy Corbyn was a very unpopular leader
- Corbyn was loathed by many in the northern and midland areas who believed they had been neglected
- Usman Khan 29/11/19 terrorist attack put a focus on security and people put more trust in Tories for that
What were the main events (2019)
- Brexit party chose not to sit in the 317 Tory Seats
- Johnson got all prospective Tory candidates to sign a pledge stating they would support his Brexit deal
- In the leadership debate Corbyn looked awkward when getting laughed but Johnson was happy about it
- Johnson dodged interview with Andrew Neil and got interviewed by Andrew Marr (far less scrutiny)
- Ian Austin, former labour MP endorses Conservatives
- Corbyn doesn’t apologise for Antisemitism in the Labour party
2010 General election result
Seat tally:
Conservatives - 307
Labour - 258
Lib Dems - 57
What was the main focus of the election (2010)
- there was the salient issue of the financial market crash in 2008 and people didn’t know which party would help the economy recover best, this caused lower wages and higher unemployment
Short term factors for the 2010 outcome
- Brown was losing popularity and seemed weak
- Cameron was a good media personality and seemed genuine
- The Leadership debates much increased the presence of Nick Clegg
- Brown was overheard calling a labour supporter a ‘Bigoted Woman’
Long term factors of the 2010 election
- In the DE class Labour were able to collect a large majority of the votes
- Cameron secured 5% more of the woman’s vote
- Ethnicity was a clear issue with 60% of ethnic minorities voting Labour and only 16% voting Tory
- 38% of white voters went Tory and 28% Labour
What were the impacts of the 2010 election results
- formed the first coalition post war
- gave the conservatives hope that they would take control as a stable government
1997 General election result
Seat tally:
Labour - 418 (majority)
Conservative - 165
Lib Dems - 46
what was so significant about the 1997 election
The election signalled a major swing from the Conservative party who had spent 18 years in government, all of a sudden the Tory party lost over 50% of their seats and known as the election of change
What was the role of the media in 1997
- Blair courted Murdoch who was the owner of the Sun newspaper that had the headline “its the Sun wot’ won it”
- the typically conservative media shifted towards being more supportive of the Labour government
- the new spin doctors who Blair used such as Alistair Campbell who would control the story of the day and the narrative of said stories
Why did the conservative campaign fail in 1997
- Major was mocked on shows such as spitting image for being grey and uncharismatic and this was the view shared by many
- Major was often seen as a weak leader of his own party and Blair said ‘I lead my party, he follows his’
why did the Labour campaign succeed 1997
- Blair was very popular and seen as a young and engaging politician amongst all the old conservative MPs
- they changed their image becoming New Labour and this took away from their horrifying defeat in the 1983 election
- the policies on their manifesto and the pledge cards were eye catching such to cut class sizes 30 and get 250,000 undeer-25-year olds off of benefits (no income tax rise which was more right wing)
What was the special group that Blair appealed to (1997)
- The Mondeo man, the aspirational lower-middle class who Blair thought were likely to switch if he could convince them
1983 General election result
Seat tally:
Conservative - 397 (majority)
Labour - 209
SDP - 23
What was so significant about the 1983 election
- It was famously a low point for the Labour party and it gave Thatcher a far greater majority than she had enjoyed in her first term in office
Which Party split the left wing vote
- The SDP/Liberal alliance split the vote and gained 25.4% of the vote share (yet this only transferred to 23 seats) it came as a more central point for those who didn’t believe in Foot’s manifesto
which short term factors shaped the 1983 election
- the left wing veteran, Foot, managed to split the party and weaken Labour’s image
- Labour’s manifesto was dubbed ‘the longest suicide note in history’ by a former Labour cabinet member
- after the victory in the Falklands war, the persona of Maggie was created and Foot looked cold and unsympathetic
- there was finally economic growth in the UK and people trusted the Tories
What were the demographic factors that shaped the 1983 election
- With class ABC1 voters were 55% for conservatives and only 16% for Labour and the SDP split much of the working class vote
- The conservatives saw lots of popularity with the 55+ age group
- there were no places where the conservatives lost popularity and they gained some in the North
