FORECASTING

Question 1

The process of using historical data to predict future events

Answer 1

Forecasting

Question 2

Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff,managers, executives, and experts.

Answer 2

Judgemental

Question 3

uses historical data assuming the future will be like the past (quantitative)

Answer 3

Time Series

Question 4

uses explanatory variables to predict the future

Answer 4

Associative model

Question 5

Managers and staff complete a series of questionnaires, each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast

Answer 5

delphi method

Question 5

Opinions of managers and staff

Answer 5

executive opinions

Question 5

With personal contact with customers

Answer 5

sales force

Question 5

The opinions of market

Answer 5

Consumer surveys

Question 6

A time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals over time

Answer 6

time series forecast

Question 7

long-term movement in data

Answer 7

trend

Question 8

short-term regular variations in data

Answer 8

seasonality

Question 8

caused by unusual circumstances

Answer 8

irregular variations

Question 8

caused by chance

Answer 8

random variations

Question 9

*Simple to use
*Virtually no cost
*Easily understandable
*Cannot provide high accuracy

Answer 9

naive forecast

Question 10

wave like variations lasting more than one year

Answer 10

cycle

Question 11

assumes an average is a good estimator of future behavior

Answer 11

simple moving average

Question 12

puts more weight on recent data and less on past data.

Answer 12

weighted moving average

Question 13

is a technical indicator that assigns a greater weighting to the most recent data points, and less weighting to data points in the distant past.

Answer 13

weighted moving average

Question 14

is obtained by multiplying each number in the data set by a predetermined weight and summing up the resulting values.

Answer 14

weighted moving average

Question 15

is a measure of the performance.

Answer 15

alpha

Question 16

is an amount/percentage given to increase or decrease the importance of an item

Answer 16

weight

Question 17

It is a sophisticated weighted averaging method that is relatively easy to use and understand.

Answer 17

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Question 18

It is a weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error.

Answer 18

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Question 19

The smoothing constant represents the percentage of forecast error.

Answer 19

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Question 20

A method that uses measurable, historical data observations, to make forecasts by calculating the weighted average of the current period’s actual value and forecast, with a trend adjustment added in.

Answer 20

ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING