Forecast Flashcards
is the process of predicting future events based on historical data and analysis.
Forecasting
Common to all forecast
Forecasts assume that patterns in the past will continue into the future.
Assumption of continuity
Common to all forecast
All forecasts contain some level of uncertainty, as they are predictions of the future
Uncertainty
Common to all forecast
Forecasts are often based on aggregated data, which means individual variations are smoothed out to identify broader trends.
Aggregated Data
Common to all forecast
Forecasts can be short-term (days to weeks), medium-term (months), or long-term (years). The choice of time horizon depends on the purpose of the forecast.
Time horizon
What are the 5 elements?
Accurate
Timely
Reliable
Simple
Cost effective
Approaches to forecasting
Uses mathematical models and historical data to predict future events.
Quantitative Forecasting:
What is the 3 approaches of forecasting under of Quantity?
JTA?
Judgemental forecast- rely on analysis manager executive, panel expert
Time series forecast-
simply attempt to project
Associative model- use equation
What is the 4 approches of forecasting under of Qualitative?
DJSC?
Delphi method- series of question
Jury of executive opinion - senior executive
Sales force composite- personnel provider
Consumer market survey- survey are confucted
Forecast based on time series data 4?
Trend- moving over time
Seasonality- seasonal factor increase ice cream
Cycles- longer term fluctuation
Ramdom Variation- unpredictable
Common time series models 3
Moving average - uses a number
Weighted average - is similar moving a
Exponential smoothing - sophisticated
Is the tool used to monitor
Tracking signal
Using forecast information 6
Inventory management
Production planning
Workforce scheduling
Financial planning
Supply chain coordination
Marketing and Sales Strategy
