FM211 Flashcards

1
Q

NPV

A
  • Costs + FCFs

stand alone principle: accept project if its NPV > 0
mutually exclusive principle: accept the highest NPV project

sunk costs, financing costs, externalities, and opportunity costs are NOT included

Net income
+ overhead
+ depr
- CAPEX
- increase in NWC

(+) accounts for the time value of money and the compensation of bearing risk

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2
Q

Book rate of return

A

Book income/book assets

(-) the components reflect tax and accounting figures and aren’t market values/ CFs
(-) time value of money is ignored
(-) only considers averages and risk is ignored

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3
Q

Payback period

A

(-) ignores time value of money
(-) ignores all CFs after the payback period

Firm A
C0 = -2000
C1 = 500
C2 = 500
C3 = 5000
Payback = 2 + (2000 - 1000)/5000 = 2.2

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4
Q

IRR

A

when NPV = 0

(-) for financing type projects, IRR should be reversed (IRR < cost of capital)
(-) multiple IRRs
(-) no IRRs
(-) can sometimes result in incorrect decisions when projects differ in scale and/or timing of their CFs
(-) different timing of CFs

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5
Q

what is the depreciation tax shield? using FCF formula

A

FCF = EBIT(1-tax) + depr - change in NWC - CAPEX + salvage

since EBIT = EBITDA - depr
FCF = (EBITDA - depr)(1-tax) + depr - change in NWC - CAPEX + Salvage

why does depr appear twice? it is a non-cash expense that reduces a firm’s bill

FCF = EBITDA(1-tax) + depr(tax) - change in NWC - CAPEX + salvage

where depr(tax) is the depreciation tax shield

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6
Q

salvage value

A

used equipment can sometimes be sold. If the sale price of the asset > book value of it, then we need to pay tax on the gain.

The after tax proceeds of this sale (“the salvage value”) is a CF that increases FCF

salvage value = sale price - (gain on sale x tax)

gain on sale = sale price - BV

BV = initial investment - AD

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7
Q

inflation

A

1 + r(real) = (1+rnormal)/(1+inflation)

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8
Q

profitability index

A

NPV/investment

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9
Q

Equivalent annual CF

A

equivalent annual CF (EAC) of a project is the equal CF per period with the same PV as the actual CFs of the project. When the CFs are costs, this is called equivalent annual costs.

EAC = PV(CFs)/ annuity factor

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10
Q

Real option

A

the right but not the obligation to modify a project in the future

  1. the abandonment option
  2. the growth option
  3. the timing option
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11
Q

CAPM formula

A

E(Ri) = rf + Bi(Erm - rf)

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12
Q

Option pricing theory

A
  • an early exercise of an american call on a non-divident paying stock is never optimal i.e. it’s better to wait
  • early exercise might be optimal for a dividend paying stock (foregone dividend = cost of waiting)

real options are valuable. In this case, the value came from avoiding bad projects. Actions that create real options are also valuable. Waiting can be costly if valuable production opportunities (e.g. revenues) are sacrificed -> similar to losing dividends when delaying the exercise of an American Call Option.

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13
Q

The abandonment option + its steps

A

the project may no longer be profitable going forward, value comes from reducing/avoiding future losses
-> use backwards induction! give optimal abandonment decision at t=1, what is the t=0 value?

1) draw a decision tree
2) find E(P1) and E(P2)
3) work out the NPV by doing cost - currently selling for all CFs (NPV without option)
4) avoid scenarios that produce negative net CFs
5) insert zeros at nodes where CF is negative and recalculate NPV
6) find all distinct scenarios and multiply by CFs

IF given permanent abandonment option (option to sell):
1) work out CFs at each node and compare with cost of selling
2) use backwards induction and decide if you should sell the company today/next year
3) the node with the positive cash flow can be plotted against the selling option on a decision tree and be used to work out Vfirm.

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14
Q

expected PV gain of abandonment option

A

= selling price - alternative option x probability/(discount rate)

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15
Q

option to grow/expand with steps

A

investment may turn out to be more profitable than expected. value comes from being able to capitalise on additional earning opportunities.

1) plot a decision tree
2) find E(CF1) and E(CF2) and E(CF1|first year high) etc…
3) workout NPV using E(CF1) and E(CF2)
4) work out the NPV for both high and low nodes of the alternative strategy
5) find the new E(CFs) and new NPV and compare without the option to expand
6) subtract both high and low demands and find the overall NPV

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16
Q

PV of option to grow/expand

A

= (Pr of opportunity x NPV) / discount rate

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17
Q

Option to wait + steps

A

even if a project has a +ve NPV today, delaying it might yield an even greater value

  1. intrinsic value: the profit/NPV if project is exercised immediately
  2. extrinsic value: the profit/NPV if you wait to exercise it
    overall option value = 1+2+ time premium

(-) BUT waiting may incur lost revenues or extra costs.

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18
Q

Cash dividend

A

firm pays cash to shareholders on a pro-rate (proportionate) basis. e.g. shareholders receives $0.50 for each share held

  • regular cash dividend: quarterly, semi-annual
  • special cash dividend: one off
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19
Q

stock dividend

A

firm pays additional stock to shareholders on a pro-rate basis, e.g. 10% stock dividend -> shareholders receive 10 additional shares for every 100 currently held

  • no actual transfer of cash to shareholders
  • essentially a stock split with a much smaller split factor
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20
Q

declaration date

A

board authorises payment of dividend and announces the dividend amount

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21
Q

record date

A

only people recorded as shareholders on this date receive a dividend

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22
Q

ex dividend date

A

normally 1-2 days before record date; anyone purchasing shares on/after this date will NOT be eligible to receive the dividend

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23
Q

cum dividend date

A

the day before the ex dividend date

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24
Q

payment date

A

firm distributes dividend

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25
share repurchase
firm uses cash to purchase its own stock from shareholders
26
open mkt repurchase (most common)
firms repurchase shares in the open (i.e. secondary market) anonymously; usually lasts up to 3 years.
27
tender offer
firm pre-specifies the no. of shares and the price at which it will offer to repurchase shares (at a premium to the current market price)
28
dutch auction
firm provides a schedule of possible repurchase shares prices and invites stockholders to state the no. of shares they are willing to sell at each price
29
private negotiation
firm offers to repurchase shares from the specific shareholders, normally at a significant premium to the market price. By buying out a major shareholder, the firm can remove the the threat of a takeover ("greenmail")
30
MM assumptions
an increase in the demand for cash will make investors buy A's stock because of their larger dividend more than B because of their smaller dividend. Therefore, the price of firm A becomes > than B and the value of A>B. MM showed that in perfect capital markets, this argument is IRRELEVANT! if the following assumptions hold: 1. investment is kept constant 2. no transaction costs 3. efficient capital mkts 4. managers maximise shareholders' wealth 5. no taxes (capital gains/dividend tax) THEN, dividend policy doesn't affect the value of the firm & wealth of the shareholders!!
31
why will shareholders not pay higher prices today for firms with higher dividend payouts (MM assumption)
there is NO impact on shareholder value, but there are differences in how this value is distributed between shares and cash. this difference doesn't matter to investors! shareholders can create a dividend they desire by selling/buying shares and therefore WON'T pay higher prices today for firms with higher dividend payouts! -> capital loss to old shareholders (i.e. dilution offsets dividend)
32
how do companies decide payout?
1. firms have long term target dividend payout ratios 2. managers focus more on dividend changes than on absolute levels 3. managers are reluctant to make dividend changes that might have to be reversed 4. dividend changes follow shifts in LR, sustainable levels of earnings rather than SR changes in earnings. 5. firms repurchase stock when they've accumulated a large amount of unwanted cash/wish to change their capital structure by replacing equity with debt. -> suggests that market DOES respond (unlike MM!)
33
relaxing MM's assumptions - investment
investment may NOT be held constant if investment decisions (positive/negative) are affected by dividend policy, firm value can change. if surplus cash will be wasted by managers, then paying out dividends increases firm value OR if paying out dividends means sacrificing valuable investment, it decreases firm value.
34
relaxing MM's assumptions - transaction costs
there ARE transaction costs - costs to mailing dividends, buying/selling stocks!
35
relaxing MM's assumptions - capital markets
capital mkts are NOT efficient! - information asymmetry: managers often know more about the firm than outsiders, they "signal" their private info to outsiders by e.g. changes to dividend payouts - irrationally: if mkt participants exhibit systemic biases in processing info, then stocks may be mispriced.
36
relaxing MM's assumptions - managers maximise shareholders wealth
managers' preferences DIFFER from shareholders' preferences - have short term objectives - prefer to underinvest and inflate dividends to increase the current stock price and their pay
37
relaxing MM's assumptions - taxes
taxes are NOT equivalent - dividends are tax similar to ordinary income (when you receive dividend) - capital gain is usually taxed separately (when you sell your investment) - dividends are tax inefficient, taxes are usually higher - dividend paying firms should be less valuable than non dividend paying firms - investors may form clientele based on their tax brackets: those in higher tax brackets may invest in stocks which don't pay dividends and vice versa (lower tax brackets invest in stocks that DO pay dividends)
38
capital structure
the mix of financing instruments a firm uses to fund its investments (assets). We can think of a firm's capital structure as broadly being composed of two components: debt and equity leverage ratio = debt/assets = debt/debt + equity
39
equity
an ownership stake in the firm - are residual claiments to a firm's CFs, entitled but not obligated to receive payments (i.e. dividends) from after-tax profits
40
Debt
- loans, bonds, notes - typically recieve legally obligated interest payments, at a repayment of principal at maturity - generally paid out of pre-tax profits - chapter than equity - increasing debt boosts expected EPS and the E(r) to equity (as long as the cost of debt is lower than the firm's expected return on invested capital). - BUT, increases the risk of equity
41
MM1: PERFECT CAPITAL MARKETS
in perfect capital markets, changing the capital structure changes how the firm's assets CFs are divided amongst debt and equity holders, but does NOT change the total cash flow going to all investors. - when there are no taxes and capital markets function well, it makes no difference whether the firm borrows/individual shareholders borrow. - shareholders can borrow and make their returns riskier on their own "homemade leverage" so will not pay more to invest in an otherwise identical levered firm - mkt value of a firm doesn't depend on its capital structure
42
two firms, U and L are identical in ALL ways except their capital structure. Firm U is unlevered, firm L is levered.
strategy: buy a 1% stake in U dollar investment: 0.01 x Vu dollar retun = 0.01 x profits replication strategy: buy 1% of both debt and equity of firm : dollar investment debt: 0.01 x DL equity: 0.01 x EL dollar return debt: 0.01 x interest equity: 0.01 x (profits - interest) total dollar investment: 0.01(DL-EL) = 0.01 x VL dollar return = 0.01 x profits both strategies produce the same dollar return! therefore by law of one price 0.01 x Vu = 0.01 x VL VU = VL if this condition doesn't hold, then an arbitrage opportunity exists
43
two firms, U and L are identical in ALL ways except their capital structure. Firm U is unlevered, firm L is levered. borrow 1% debt of L and buy 1% equity of U
dollar investment debt: -0.01 x DL equity: 0.01 x Vu dollar return debt: -0.01 x interest equity: 0.01 x profits total dollar investment: 0.01(VU - DL) dollar return: 0.01(profits - interest)
44
MM2: perfect capital markets
in perfect capital markets: A = VU = VL = D + EL rA = rU = (WD x rD) + (WE x rE) therefore rA = rU = (D/D+E)rD + (E/D+E)rE = WACC(pretax weighted cost of capital) rE = rU + D/E(rU - rD) the expected return on the common stock of a levered firm increases in proportion to the debt-equity ratio (D/E) rU = compensation for businesses/operating risk D/E(rU - rD) = compensation for "financial risk" if CAPM is true, then these changes in E(r) should correspond to CAPM betas BA = BU = BD(D/D+E) + BE(E/D+E) therefore BE = BU + (D/E)(BU - BD)
45
the overall affect of financial leverage (summary)
financial leverage doesn't affect: - risk/expected return on the firm's assets - firm value it does affect - risk and E(r) on a firm's common stock it may affect: - risk/E(r) on debt, depending on the amount of leverage and the nature of default
46
interest tax shield
interest payments in many jurisdictions are treated as the cost of doing business and hence deducted from pre-tax income adding debt can reduce pre tax income and therefore, the % of tax, this is known as the interest tax shield (ITS) = (D x rD) x tc
47
WACC
because ITS reduces the firms' effective cost of capital, we can incorporate the benefit it brings to the firm and shareholder value by modifying the firm's cost of capital. We define the firm's effective after tax cost of capital (WACC): WACC = rD(1-Tc)(D/V) + rE(E/V) expanding this formula, we see its relationship with the company cost of capital (i.e. before tax WACC) WACC = rD(1-Tc)(D/V) + rE(E/V) = rD(D/V) + rE(E/V) - rDTc(D/V) = before tax WACC - rDTc(D/V)
48
adjusted present value
if taxes aren't the only deviation from MM and the firm doesn't constantly rebalance its leverage to a target ratio D/V, then don't discount FCF using the after tax WACC USE APV which doesn't capture taxes or other financing effects in a WACC type tax adjusted discount rate APV = base case NPV + sum of PV financing side effects since in any year, leveraged CF to investors = unleveraged CF to investors + ITS by no arbitrage, we must have: VL = VU + PV(interest tax shield)
49
to determine the levered firm/project value using APV, we need:
1. firm/project value if unlevered 2. the PV of the future stream of tax savings generated by leverage
50
permanent debt
assume a firm plans to keep a fixed dollar amount of debt, D on its balance sheet permanently at a cost rD PV(ITS) = (D x rD x Tc)/rD = D x Tc
51
so why do firms not borrow more?
1. you can only use interest tax shields if there will be future profits to shield 2. interest expense isn't the only tax shield 3. consider investor/personal taxes 4. consider bankruptcy costs
52
personal taxes
in addition to corporate taxes (Tc) paid on profit of the firm, the shareholders have to pay personal taxes on equity income - the dividends they receive from the firm - capital gains from the increase in mkt value of the firm - can reduce the tax advantage of debt found at the corporate level
53
relative advantage of debt (RAD)
after all personal and corp taxes have been deducted by comparing the after tax amount that found by received by bondholders for each after tax dollar received by stockholders RAD = (1 - TP)/ (1 - TPE)(1 - Tc) if RAD > 1 -> issue debt if RAD < 1 -> issue equity
54
financial distress
a firm is in financial distress when it's experiencing difficulty meeting its debt obligations if a firm fails to make debt payments, it is in default or bankrupt/insolvent costs of financial distress: 1. direct: legal and admin 2. indirect: loss of stakeholders abandoning the firm before/during bankruptcy
55
bankruptcy costs
if a firm fails to make debt payments, it is in default or bankrupt/insolvent
56
agency costs
costs arising from conflicts between stakeholders in a firm. in firms with leverage, between shareholders and debtors when projects have different consequences for their payoffs: - debtholders prefer safer projects: they have priority in CF - equity holders prefer risky projects: they are a residual claimant with limited liability and potentially unlimited upside! 1. asset subsitution/risk shifting 2. debt overhang
57
asset subsitution / risk shifting
when debt is in place, equity has the incentive to take excessive and inefficient risks levered equity as a call option: an option is more valuable if the volatility of the underlying (i.e. the asset) increases
58
why are shareholders' incentives to increase risk greater in financial distress?
Even if the company takes on big risky projects and fails, shareholders don’t have to pay out of pocket. Their maximum loss is already capped — they just lose the value of their shares (which might already be close to nothing). 2. Upside goes to shareholders If a risky move succeeds, the gains go to shareholders first, after debt holders get their fixed repayments. Because their downside is limited, but the upside is unlimited, shareholders now prefer risky bets (even if the chance of success is low). 3. Debt holders bear the downside If the risky project fails, the firm may not be able to pay back its debts. The losses fall on the debt holders, not the shareholders. So in a way, shareholders are gambling with the creditors' money.
59
Equity = Call Option on Firm’s Assets
In a levered firm (i.e., one with debt), equity holders can be seen as owning a call option on the firm's assets, with a strike price equal to the face value of debt. Strike price (K) = amount owed to debtholders at maturity Underlying asset = total value of the firm’s assets Maturity = time until the debt is due
60
When the firm is in financial distress:
Market value of assets < face value of debt (i.e., asset value is below the strike price of the call option) This means the call is out-of-the-money right now. So the intrinsic value of equity = 0 if the debt were due today. But the option still has time until maturity — and thus time value. This time premium reflects the possibility that asset values might rise in the future, putting the option (i.e., equity) back in the money. Why does this make shareholders prefer risk? Because of how options work: A call option’s value increases with volatility. More asset volatility = greater chance the asset value rises above debt = more chance equity ends up in the money. So shareholders want the firm to take on more risk, even if the expected value of the project isn’t positive. That’s the essence of the risk-shifting problem.
61
debt overhang
when debt is in place, equity has the incentive to refuse +ve NPV projects 1. positive NPV projects require inputs 2. equity pays the costs 3. improved CF largely goes back to paying back debt 4. payoff to debt increases 5. gross terminal payoff to equity increases, but net of the costs, it can decrease 6. equity pays the costs but not "too much" of the benefit accrues to debt 7. as a result, some positive NPV projects are passed up
62
trade off theory
the optimal leverage should balance the benefits (e.g. tax shields) and the cost of debt (financial distress costs) how do you quantify this tradeoff? USE APV VL = VU + PV(Tax Shields) - PV(Costs of Financial Distress) where Tax Shields are the value of tax savings from debt and costs of financial distress is the value of all direct/indirect costs of financial distress consistent with trade off theory: - most companies have high target debt ratios - high tech growth companies with risky assets normally use relatively little debt - BUT tradeoff theory cannot explain why some of the most profitable companies with large income tax bills thrive with little debt why debt ratios haven't increased since the time when corp income tax rates were low
63
PV cost of debt
PV(CFD) = pCFD/ (rD + p) where p = probability of bankruptcy CFD = cost of bankruptcy rD = bond expected return
64
Debunking MM's assumption of "efficient capital markets": SIGNALLING
- a firm's managers often know more about the company's prospects, risk and value than do outside investors (information asymmetry) . If value relevant private information is NOT reflected in the market prices, then financial transactions may not be fair. - however, certain actions taken by the better informed party (managers) can help the uninformed party (outside investors) infer the party's private info ("signalling"), causing the market to react. - stock prices tend to rise on the announcement of an increase in the regular dividend as investors tend to interpret this as a credible signal of management's confidence in future earnings
65
Adverse Selection - Myers and Majluf
1. a firm is considering a new project that will yield a positive NPV 2. however, the firm doesn't have sufficient internal funds and must raise equity. 3. manager's interest is to maximise the wealth of existing shareholders 4. if new equity dilutes the value of existing shares, managers might be reluctant to issue equity even for a good project. 5. because managers know more about a firms' "true" value than its outside investors, if managers offer new equity, investors may infer that the firm is "overvalued", because why else would a firm want to sell shares? 6. therefore, the market discounts new shares, equity is issued at a price below its true value, this hurts existing shareholders, managers choose not to issue equity and forego positive NPV projects (underinvestment).
66
potential solutions for adverse selection of managers
1. cash on hand: use RE (internal equity) to avoid asymmetric information 2, risk free debt (equity % is multiplied against vfirm, debt is minused)
67
pecking order theory
firms prefer to use least information sensitive securities when financing projects 1. least sensitive: RE (cash) 2. risk free debt 3. risky debt 4. most sensitive: equity
68
Asquith and Mullins (1986): Primary & Secondary Offerings
- primary offering: when a firm issues stock; no. of shares, total value of equity and the value of firm increases (signalling & capital structure changes) - secondary offering: when one shareholder sells a large block of stock to another shareholder, the firm isn't involved in this transaction, so there is no change in the number of shares
69
managers vs shareholders: the effort problem
- "effort problem" more outside equity reduces the incentive for managers to exert effort, because they own less of the firm, therefore value of firm decreases. - solutions: let managers own 100% of the firm, options (high powered incentive contracts - stock options only provide benefits if S>K), debt
70
debentures
long term, (>10y) long term secured debt (in the UK), long term unsecured issues (in the US)
71
commercial paper and notes
short term (<10y)
72
face value
principal at maturity, often 1000
73
coupon
interest payment
74
yield
the discount rate for future promised payments
75
accrued interest
the amount of accumulated interest since the last coupon payment
76
"dirty price"
the actual price you pay to purchase a bond
77
"clean price"
dirty price - accrued interest
78
foreign bond
local currency denominated bond that is issued/sold by a foreign company to investors in the local market
79
eurobond
a bond that is underwritten by international bond syndicates and sold in several national markets in a major non local currency
80
global bond
a very large bond issue that is marketed both internationally (that is, the eurobond market) and in individual domestic markets.
81
corporate bonds
carry credit risk, i.e. the possibility of default
82
secured bond
lender can seize collateral upon default
82
unsecured bond
no collateral, backed by the company's creditworthiness
83
mortgage bonds
long term debt secured by a firm's property
84
asset backed securities
backed by a portfolio of assets
85
who gets paid first in bankruptcy?
senior > junior (riskier, so the return is higher) secured > unsecured debt holders > equity holders
86
recovery rates
the % an investor gets back in bankruptcy
87
sinking fund
a lumpy payment of the entire principal can be disruptive. a sinking fund is established to retire debt gradually before maturity. the firm is obligated to make regular payments into the sinking fund.
88
pay in kind (PIK)
payments don't have to be in cash. interest/sinking funds can be paid by bonds too (sometimes purchased from the market). when in trouble, cheaper way to pay than cash.
89
debt covenants
- restrictions imposed by bondholders on the activities of the borrower - POSITIVE COVENANTS specify actions that the firm must take e.g. working capital must remain above a minimum level etc. - NEGATIVE COVENANTS: limit/forbid actions that the firm may take (dividend restrictions)
90
types of options in bond contracts
1. callable bonds - can be called by the firm 2. puttable bonds - can be called by investors 3. convertible bonds - investors can exchange the bond 4. callable convertible bonds - include a call option (for the issuer) and a conversion option (for the bondholder)
91
callable bonds (issuer option)
- can be repurchased ("called") by the issuer before its maturity at a predetermined price (the call price) - e,g, after a specific date (T) the firm can buy back the bonds at 105% of par value - Pt callable = Pt straight - Ct - where Ct is the call option value - option value is subtracted because it represents a cost to the issuer
92
why do firms call bonds?
- to adjust capital structure (e.g. lowering leverage) - to take advantage of lower prevailing interest rates - optimal strategy: call the bond when its market price reaches the call price
93
puttable bonds (bondholder option)
- gives the investors the right to demand early payments (usually at par value), after a certain date (T) - straight bond + long put option - put options can be particularly damaging to issuers. when the bond's market price falls (often when the firm is in trouble) investors will exercise the put option - forcing the firm to redeem the bond when it may not have the funds, potentially leading to default
94
convertible bonds
- allows bondholders to exchange the bond for a predetermined number of shares of the issuing company 1. conversion ratio 2. conversion price 3. conversion value convert ONLY if conversion value > straight bond value Convertible bond = straight bond + equity call option where straight bond: use coupon and maturity of the convertible bond, use market interest rate the firm would pay on a straight bond equity call option: tricker! american call price with random exercise price, conversion options are LT dilution effect on equity Option value = convertible price - straight bond price
95
conversion ratio
the number of shares each bond can be converted into conversion price/face value
96
conversion price
face value/conversion ratio
97
conversion value
the value of of the bond if converted into shares Pt convertible = Pt straight + Ct where Ct is the value of the call option to acquire common stock
98
bonds with bilateral options - callable convertible bonds
includes a call option (for the issuer) and a conversion option (for the bondholder)
99
why issue convertible bonds?
Cost consideration: Convertibles might seem cheaper because they offer lower interest rates, but the issuer is essentially giving investors an option to buy equity, which has a cost. Different views on risk: Management and the market may disagree on how risky the firm is. If the market overestimates the risk, convertibles can be attractive — similar to the logic in the pecking order theory. Reducing agency conflicts: Convertible bonds can help align the interests of shareholders and debt holders. They reduce the risk of asset substitution, where shareholders might push for risky projects that benefit them more than debt holders.
100
effect of components on the value of the straight bond and equity call option
conversion ratio - no effect on straight bond value - increases option components stock price - mixed effect on straight bond value - increases option components stock volatility - decreases straight bond value - increases option components dividend - decreases straight bond value - decreases option components PRICE OF CONVERTIBLE BOND MUST ALWAYS BE ATLEAST THE STRIGHT BOND/CONVERSION VALUE (WHICHEVER IS LARGER)
101
payoff to convertible bondholders at maturity
Pac = stock after conversion 1. if Vfirm < Pac, firm defaults, payoff = Vfirm (i.e. gets the entire firm) 2. if Pac < Vfirm < Vac , bondholders receive principal and interest 3. if Vfirm > Vac, bondholders convert and receive gradient of the firm
102
payoff to old equity holders at maturity
1. Vfirm < Pac, default, equity gets nothing 2. if Pac < Vfirm < Vac, receive residual value of firm, Vfirm - Pac 3. if Vfirm > Pac, original equity holders retain 1-gradient of the firm
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post conversion share price
If bondholders choose not to convert P = (Vfirm(principal + interest) x contracts)/ shares
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how are small firms financed?
small firms are primarily self financed with equity supplemented with "informal" finance (e.g. debt from family, friends, etc.) as the firm grows, the ability/willingness of informal finance to meet the needs of the business declines RE - a firm can reinvest profits Banks - use past performance VC's - for risky, opaque, intangible firms
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Venture Capital
a financial intermediary specialising in providing equity financing to new firms - commonly use convertible preferred stock: gives investors the option to convert their shares into common stock, offering a blend of fixed income and potential for capital appreciation low probability of success but much higher than usual returns active investors - monitoring (seats etc.) - staged financing (funds usually appear in stages after a certain level of success is achieved) belong to the PE industry
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limited partners
contribute most (98% approx.) of capital don't directly make investment decisions
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general partners
choose and monitor the fund's investments ("portfolio firms") contribute skill
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institutional investors -> VCs -> Portfolio firms
insitutional investors are LPs who provide most of the capital for VC firms e.g. pension funds, insurance companies, soverign wealth funds... these funds go to VC's which are GP who manage the funds, they raise money from LP's and find startups to invest in, and manage the shares in those startups these funds reach the startups (portfolio firms), which give VC's equity returns from this equity are given back to institutional investors
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PE funds
PE Funds are limited duration, closed end funds 1. limited duration (10-12yrs) - the fund has a fixed lifespan - after that, the fund is liquidated, meaning all investments (portfolio firms) are sold and the money is returned to investors (LPs) - this forces GPs to prove themselves, if they don't perform well, they wont be able to raise money for the next fund 2. closed end - once GP's launch their funds, no money can be added and LP's cant pull their money out - LPs cant sell their stake in the fund, so it's usually very illiquid - but, this gives the fund stability, as everyone is locked in for the duration
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GP compensation - how fund managers get paid
1. management fee (fixed) - GP gets paid 2% of the committed capital per year - this happens regardless of performance, kind of like a salary 2. carried interest - this is the performance based bonus, GP's usually get 20% of profits but only after a fund hits a minimum return (called a hurdle rate, like 8% or so). if the fund does poorly, they don't get this part.
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VC monitoring
- shareholders of large public companies have no skill/incentive to monitor the company because they hold a small number of shares - so the managers are liable to take advantage of the company's resources and generate personal benefits that hurt the firms' overall value (monitoring would make overpriced shares fair!) - result: no one monitors -> cost of monitoring > benefits; others would just free ride anyway - VCs are big shareholders of a firm, so they enjoy being part of the benefits of monitoring!!
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staged financing
1. angel investors: only raw ideas, no product (50k-500k) 2. seed capital: prototype perhaps; business plan (1M - 5M) 3. early stage VC: generate revenue; perhaps not profitable (size>2M) 4. last stage VC: profitable; need cash to invest (5M-15M) 5, mezzanine stage: last stage before IPO, multiple securities (debts, convertibles) are used.
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how do you calculate ownership for each investor after a new funding round?
VC contributes X for a startup After startup, the firm is worth V the original investor (OI) holds a fraction of the pre-contributed firm of the POST contributed firm: VC -> X/V OI -> (1 - X/V) x s
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how do VC's exit portfolio firms?
1. M&A: startup is bought by another company 2. IPO: - primary offering: new shares are issued (IPO) to raise additional capital - secondary offering: existing large shareholders cash in by selling part of their stake in the firm (i.e. unrelated to the firm)
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IPOs positives and negatives
+ funds for investment + diversify the initial investors: founders can cash out and use the money for other ventures. current equity holders sell a fraction of their shares, but not a large fraction because it would sell a negative signal if an insider sells a large % of their holdings + exit strategy for VCs and other investors: founders want VCs out/VCs want out - monetary costs - admin costs: at IPO, 2-10%, this is smaller for bigger companies due to economies of scale. after IPO, its expensive to comply with regulatory filing requirements after becoming a PLC. - underwriting spread (approx. 7%) that IBs charge for their services: they tell them what price to sell the IPO at, prospectus for new investors - underpricing: D1 price >> IPO price (sold for less than worth) - disclosure requirements - dilution of ownership stake and greater regulatory oversight
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SEO - seasoned equity offering
- sale of new securities by a firm that is already publicly traded 1. general cash offer 2. private placement 3. rights issue
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general cash offer
sale of securities open to ALL investors (IPO)
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private placement
sale of securities open to alimited number of investors without a public offering (sophisticated invesots - lower costs, no prospectus!!)
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rights issue
issue of securities offered only to current stockholders "X for Y right": for every Y shares you own, you have the right but not the obligation to buy X more shares from the company
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rights issue formula
value of right = (P current x Pissue) x N/N+1
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empirical evidence on IPOs
1) D1 returns average 16% higher than IPO price -> underpricing 2) Returns are risky and vary widely by year 3) underpricing varies with uncertainty avout the stock's value - larger firms with more sales are underpriced less. Underpricing is smaller for older firms. 4) international results are similar LONG RUN 1) long run returns are low - poor relative performance in the subsequent 3-5 years
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IBs responsibilities for IPOs (underpricing)
1. due diligence and determine firms valuation 2. prospectus preparation and SEC filings (regulatory requirement) 3. marketing the IPO - IBs are allowed to enter the market and buy shares at the IPO price/lower -> creates a floor on how low the stock can go generally -> left side is truncated -> D1 returns are positive - IBs buy all the IPOs at a set price from the firm, and sell them at a lower IPO price, essentially taking all the risk from the firm. IBs price low so they don't have excess stock. They also get a % return from proceeds (about 7% underwriting fee) although this might lower their returns it will be offset by other sources of revenue generated during the IPO process IBs give favoured clients a portion of the IPO (private placement) which gives them more business in the future
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why else are IPOs underpriced?
- information asymmetry ("Winner's Curse") informed investors stay away from bad deals, uninformed investors recieve a disproportionate allocation of shares in bad deals (they cannot distinguish between good and bad deals). to participate in IPOs, uninformed investors need a discount on the fall price in order to break even. We need participation by uninformed investors, or IPO won't go through!! for uninformed investors: when they bid at their estimate, then when the IPO is a good deal, informed investors also subscribe to the IPO, uninformed recieve a small (or no allocation). when the IPO is bad, informed withdraw -> you recieve a large allocation on average, when you "win" in the IPO share alloication, it's more likely to be a bad IPO. in order to break even, you bid at a DISCOUNT!!
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merger
two firms combine to form a single firm
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takeover
one firm "acquirer" buys a signifcant number of shares/asset sfrom "target" to gain control
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buyout
a publicly traded firm or a division of a firm is bought and then taken private
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integration types
1. horizontal - same industry - same stage of production process 2. vertical - same industry - different stage of production process 3. conglomerate - different industries
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friendly takeover
the board of directors of both firms agree to combine and seek shareholders' approval for the combination, generally >50%
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hostile takeover
raider can directly take over the board of directors/shareholders a hostile takeover attempt will often result in the firm being sold to a friendly 3rd party.
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M&A payment methods
1. cash deals: target shareholders recieve cash compensation, e.g. every share of target recieves $10 2. stock deals ("stockswap"): target shareholders recieve payment in the form of the acquirers' stock. e.g. every share of the target recieves 0.3 shares of the acquirer 3. combination of cash and stock payment method doesn't matter in the MM world, but it does in the real world
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M&A valid sources of value
1. restructuring: M&A can be a cost effective way to restructure, made necessary due to obsolete product/increased foreign competition/deregulation 2. market power: if you can't undercut competitors, buying them could be an alternative. fewer participants leads to monopoly pricing which leads to higher stock prices and profits 3. synergies/strategic benefits: higher CFs (i.e. increased revenue, decreased costs) through EoS, allows smaller firms to gain access to distribution/advertising 4. reduction in taxes: ITS (advantage of debt, not merger) other tax tricks 5. realign management's incentives: replace bad managers, prevent "empire building" (decisions driven by executives rather than to raise the value of the firm)
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M&A dubious sources of value
1. increasing financial slack: managers may otherwise reject profitable investment opportunities, and instead choose to acquire a firm if they have to raise external capital to finance them -> generated 0NPV to buy a takeover to acquire its cash 2. diversification: combining several industries to lower risk at the firm level - but invwstors can diversify by building a portfolio! 3. CEO hubris: CEOs are often overconfident in their management's abilities and might overestimate potential gains => they might think a project is positive NPV when actually its negative NPV 4. boost EPS: EPS can change even if Vfirm stays the same! not a reliable indicator of whether an acquisition creates/destroys value - acquiring firm has low E/P ratio - selling firm has high E/P ratio (perhaps due to low growth expectations) - after merger, acquiring firm has a short term higher E/P - in the long term, acquierer will have low E/P due to share dilution
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NPV analysis of M&A
1. gain = Vat - (Va - Vt) 2. cost = cash paid - Vt 3. NPV = gain - cost 4. cost using stock = (N x Pat) - Vt
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Valuation by DCF/NPV analysis - positives and negatives
+ construct transparent spreadhseets of FCFs + CFs come from specific forecasts and assumptions + can see impact of changes in strategies - isn't just based on the market, it is grounded in how much cash the firm is actually expected to produce - CFs are only as good as your forecasts/assumptions - if your assumptions are wrong, your valuation can be way off! - might "forget" something - you could overlook an important factor! like taxes, change in NWC/one time costs, which could distort the results - need to forecast managerial behaviour (unless you're in control) - you're assuming how managers will run the company (how much they will invest and spend). if you're not the one making these decisions, that adds uncertainty! - need to estimate the discount rate using a theory (like CAPM) that may be incorrect/imprecise
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valuation by multiples
assess a firm's/division's value based on "multiples" of the publicly traded comparable. multiple = market valie/some accounting measure of "fundamentals" where multiple: - CF based value: earnings/EBITDA/FCF - CF based price: P/E, EBITDA, FCF - Asset based: book value of assets, book value of equity
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valuation by multiples - steps
1. hope firms in the business have similar multiples e.g. P/E 2. identify firms in the same business as the firm you want to value 3. calculate P/E ratio for comparables and come up with estimate of the P/E for the firm you want to value (avg of the comparables' P/E) 4. estimated P/E x actual EPS
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valuation by multiples: advantages & disadvantages
+ incorporates alot of info from other valuations in a simple way + embodies mkt consensus about discount & growth rate + free ride on mkt's info + can provide discipline in valuation process by ensuring your valuation is in line with other valuations - implicitly assumes all companies are alike in growth rates, cost of capital, and business composistion - hard time incorporating firm specific info - accounting differences are particularly problematic if operating charges are going to be implemented (EBIDTA/FCF are preferable) - BVs can vary across firms depending on age of assets - if everyone uses comparables, who does fundamental analysis?
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free rider problem with M&A
you are a shareholder of TAA, the value of your stock is 45. if run optimally, it would be 60. BT is known to acquire and turn around firms for their better BT makes an offer of X per share of TAA. they can only turn around TAA if they are able to purchase enough shares how high must X be? you can always sell for 45, but, if BT succeeds your shares will jump to 60. therefore, there is no reason for you to sell below 60. but, at 60, BT makes no profits. If there are transaction costs, BT will pay 60+ costs, to recieve a firm worth 60. however, current shareholders will want to "free ride" on raiders efforts, therefore BT overpays, reducing profits for themselves/no raid happens at all. therefore, as soon as BT announces the takeover, everyone assumes that the company might be worth 60, so the stock price immediately jumps up, say to 58-60 BEFORE the takeover -> gain goes to shareholders why is this called the free rider problem? - only BT does the hardwork to improve TAA, existing shareholders don't help, they just WAIT, hope BT suceeds and then enjoy the benefits without contributing - as a result, BT has to pay the FULL price - there's NO profit left for him, even though he unlocked a new value - BUT he makes 0 returns (60 for 60)/ a loss once you add costs so: he may decide not to do the takeover, he does it and overpays
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merger arbitrage?
- a trading strategy that tries to profit from the gap between the current market price and the deal price e.g. BT offers $60 for company X, but X is currently trading at $57 (because there is a risk that the deal won't happen), you buy X at $57, hoping to make $3 if the deal happens -> this is called "spread": long the target stock and short the bidder stock to a hedge risky because there is NO guarantee that the deal will go through! 1) regulatory rejection 2) board/shareholder resistances 3) financing issues 4) mkt volatility
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takeover defences
1. the company buys back it's own shares specifically from the raider at a premium (about 16%), this hurts regular shareholders since the money comes from the company's resources 2. delay/block the takeover by claiming the merger would violate competition laws 3. anti take over amendments a) allows existing shareholders to buy shares cheap; diluting the bidders stake and making the takeover more expensive b) only a fraction of the board can be replaced at each election, slowing down any hostile takeover attempts c) give employees shares (and voting rights), making it harder for the bidder to gain control if employees vote against it. 4. the target finds a friendlier acquirer instead of accepting the hostile one
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benefits of takeover defences
+ job security/control + bargaining power - could get a better deal + preserve more valuable, LT projects + if managers aren't constantly worried about being fired in a take over, they might think more long term!
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hedging
financial transactions with offset the risk of a real asset - when the real asset increases in value, hedge loses money - when the real asset decreases in value, hedge gains money (-) risk isn't eliminated; just transferred (-) if the risk is systematic, e.g. oil prices/i.r/FX rates then everyone is exposed, so you must pay a premium to shift that risk (like an insurance premium) therefore, even a perfect hedge will lose its money on average, because you're paying a premium to avoid large, uncertain losses
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when should/shouldn't firms hedge?
+ they face big unwanted risks they cant easily absorb + reduces financial distress costs/smooths earnings + helps create value, like helping get a better loan rate - firm is diversified, cash-rich, can self insure - risk is small & hedging is costly - shareholders can hedge on their own (portfolio) - not in an MM world - reducing risks to security holders has no value if they can hedge those risks themselves!