Florians Lectures Flashcards

1
Q

Business Model of an Insurance

A
  • Risk pooling (financial liquidity available for all members, guaranteed access to the pool in case of a loss, solidarity between participants
  • Insurer takes on risks from individuals or companies (policyholders or insured)
  • Insured pays a premium & receives benefits (life) or indemnification (non-life)
  • Insurer pools the risks & hedges with reinsurance or other risk management tools
  • Law of large numbers: the larger the portfolio of independent risks, the more accurately one may predict the average loss
  • Underwriter: due-diligence for new policyholders, estimates the risk profile of the potential policyholder
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2
Q

Underwriting Result

A

Premium + 100
Expenses - 30
Claims – 75
_____________
TR (Technical Result) -5

ER (Expense Ratio) 30/100 = 30%
LR (Loss Ratio) 75/100 = 75%
CR (Combined Ratio)= 105%

Why are not profitable insurances still offered:
-Asset Management (invest premiums)
-cross selling

Switzerland: Combined Ratio about 90%

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3
Q

Efficiency of insurances depends on (3)

A
  • Market power
  • Solvency
  • Law of large numbers (better prediction of true premium, higher likelihood to be able to grow)
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4
Q

Risk transfer

A
  • If equity falls short the insurance is insolvent. The insurance then has to go to an Reinsurer (for example Swiss Re), Reinsurance acts like an insurance for the insurance company
  • Primary Insurance: Individuals & Companies insure risks & pay a premium & in return receive indemnifiactions or benefits
  • Reinsurance: Primary Insurers pass on portfolios of similar risks or large single risks, Reinsurance reduces claims volatility & safeguards against extreme events
  • Capital markets: Reinsurers may pass on risks to other reinsurer in the retrocession market, Insurance-linked securities (ILS): transfer risks to investors in the capital market
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5
Q

Insurance markets

A
  • Heavy leveraged (manage large amounts of liabilities compared to equity) & strictly regulated institutions
  • Rating: a measure of solvency & product quality
  • Underwriting cycle (primarily in property-casualty business):
    o Soft markets: periods with oversuplly of insurance & low premiums, last 10 years in Switzerland
    o Hard markets: periods with an undersupply & high premiums
    o Depends on interest rates: low interst rates -> oversupply of capital -> large loss led to higher premiums not possible because of the market (oversupply)
    o Hard markets: during covid: higher costs for for repairing cars ->higher premiums
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6
Q

Insurance Risks

A
  • Risk assumed by insurers when selling risk cover: property, damage, libility, life, health risks
  • Narrow interpretation: refers to the specific insurance risk without considering broader risks like market risk, credit risk or operational risk
  • Insurance risk strictly involves the likelihood and severity of claims exceeding the premiums and reserves held by the insurer
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7
Q

Two main categories of insurance risks

A
  • Non-life Insurance:
    o (Re)insurance pays policyholder’s claim in case of damace
    o Risk of loss: property damage due to loss events (e.g. natural catastrophes)
    o Risk of accidents: accident damage & legal liability (may include negligence)
  • Life insurance:
    o (Re)insurance pays for death, illness & disability
    o Longevity/mortality risk: financial consequences of excessively long/short life expectancy
    o Health risk: potential worsening of health condition due to injury or illness
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8
Q

Asymmetric information

A
  • Moral hazard: after the contract (e.g. We take more risks because it is insured (doing sport activities), methods against moral hazard: deductable, bad loss history=higher premium, black lists
  • Adverse selection: before the contract (screening techniques: medical tests, incentives
  • Signaling: incentives (e.g. incentive if nothing happens: lower premium)
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9
Q

Criteria for the insurability of risks (11)

A
  • Risk/Uncertainty: measurable: might be unpredictable, no data, new line of business or few clients, extreme events, cyber insurance: risks can’t be observed
  • Loss events: should be independent, so they do not cascade and get bigger, capability to diversify
  • Maximum loss & loss frequency: insurance wants risks with high frequency & moderate financial risks (e.g. car accidents)
  • Moral hazard/adverse selection: medical tests, deductables, screenings, try to get rid of asymmetric information
  • Insurance premium: has to be competitive, know the costs in order to cover the risks
  • Coverage limit: has to be payable if the risk occurs
  • Industry limit: sufficient, bring in spv’s
  • Regulation: is the product accepted by the society & the laws?
  • Legal system: cluster granates: no insurance against this
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10
Q

Significant 2018 economic loss events

A
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11
Q

Criteria for the insurability of catastrophe risks (CAT claims)
(6)

A
  • Low frequency & high severity ( maximum loss controllable, low loss frequency)
  • Randomness: non-predicability, problem: a lot of occurrences happen at the same time (terrorism risk usually excluded)
  • Assessability: is given, although confidence intervals (uncertainty) tend to be wider, terrorism risk falls into a gray area where assessment is particularly difficult
  • Independence: should ideally be given, not a strict requirement, especially for correlated risks like hurricanes & earthquakes
  • Maximum loss: insurers must be able to cap their liability to ensure that catastrophic losses do not bankrupt the insurer (policy limits), reinsurance agreements are used to diversify & transfer part of the risk to other entities
  • Economic viability: low frequency, high severity events, small net risk premium relative to the exposure: the total premium for such coverage tends to be high due to significant risk loading
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12
Q

Structure of an insurance premium

A
  • Cost loading: cost structure of the insurance company (e.g. administration)
  • Risk Loading: increases with uncertainty (CAT risks), surrounding the expected claims estimate
  • Net risk premium: accounts for expected loss of the contract (distribution mean
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13
Q

Insurance in Switzerland

A
  • Year 2017: Total empoyees world-wide 147k, 46k CH, 101k international
  • Year 2017: 35k employee in admin, 12k insurance advisors
  • Year 2017: premiums written: Life Insurance: CHF Mio. 29k, health insurance: 10k, motor insurance 6k, fire & property 4k
  • Year 2017: claims CHF Mio.: Life insurance 28k, Health insurance 8l, Motor insurance 3k, fire & property insurance 2k
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14
Q

Risk profile structure (2)

A
  • Balanced (homogenous) portfolio
    o Similar & equally weighted risks
    o Compensation of the loss burden can be managed in the own risk portfolio
    o Example: large motor insurance portfolio of a primary insurer
  • Imbalanced (heterogeneous) portfolio
    o High amounts & highly vulnerable risks
    o Coverage or compensation with reinsurer
    o Example: nuclear & aviation insurance
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15
Q

Reinsurance agreements

A
  • Reinsurer takes on part of the risk
  • ceding a risk: primary insurer (cedent) transferring the risk pays a premium
  • The original policyholder is not involved in the transaction
  • Single risks or entire portfolio can be transferred
  • Reinsurers are multinational institutions with ability to diversify risks globally
  • Reinsurance agreements between reinsurers are called retrocession
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16
Q

Achieving balance via collective risk transfer

A
  • Retrocession: process where a reinsurer transfers part of its assumed risk to another reinsurer
  • Reasons: Risk distribution, capital management, protection from large losses
  • Benefits: Risk diversification, financial flexibility, protection from catastrophic events
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17
Q

Achieving balance via collective risk transfer (2 graphic)

A
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18
Q

Reinsurance cycles

A

The Regional Property Catastrophe RoL Index highlights the cyclical nature of reinsurance pricing driven by large-scale catastrophes. While the U.S. and Asia-Pacific experience significant volatility, Europe and the UK remain relatively stable with lower rates.
* 9/11: soft market, lot of capital in the market, difficult to increase prices
* 90s: hard market, high interest rates, hard to get capital

19
Q

Benefits of reinsurer

20
Q

Risk components (required capital)

A

Required capital depends on underwriting, counterparty, and investment risk
investment risk has to be risk weighted
underwriting risk contains premium, reserve and cat risk
Solvency ratio = available cap / req cap
Available capital = Equity (retained earnings, commonstock ) + Subordinated debt

Cost of capital = Cost of Equity
Cost of Equity = risk free rate + risk premium
Risk premium= underwriting + Investment

Economic value= (Return on Equity – Cost of Equity) x Equity
ROE = Net income / Equity

21
Q

Risk components (required capital) 2

A

Cost of capital = Cost of Equity
Cost of Equity = risk free rate + risk premium
Risk premium= underwriting + Investment

Economic value= (Return on Equity – Cost of Equity) x Equity
ROE = Net income / Equity

22
Q

Basic forms of reinsurance

A
  • Scope of the contract:
    o Facultative reinsurance: covers individual risks, case-by-case-assessment
    o Obligatory (treaty) reinsurance: covers whole portfolios of policies or lines of business
  • Type of risk (& premium) sharing:
    o Proportional reinsurance: sharing of sum insured, premiums, and losses according to a ratio
    o Non-proportional reinsurance: reinsurer bears losses above a fixed threshold (deductible)
23
Q

Facultative reinsurance

A
  • Reinsurer can reject or accept any individual risk
  • Risk selection process (underwriting) as main driver of reinsurer’s profit
  • Suitable instrument for hedging risks outside a treaty
24
Q

Obligatory (treaty) reinsurance

A
  • Reinsurer cannot select different risks on a case-by-case basis
  • Long-term relationship between insurer and reinsurer
  • Less cost-intensive than facultative reinsurance
25
Reinsurance typology
* Ratio can be fixed (quota share) or variable (other proportional reinsurance) * Price is expressed in the reinsurance commission * Reinsurer participates in all losses incurred (claims & premiums are shared)
26
Reinsurance typology 2 Proportional Insurance
* Ratio can be fixed (quota share) or variable (other proportional reinsurance) * Price is expressed in the reinsurance commission * Reinsurer participates in all losses incurred (claims & premiums are shared)
27
Proportional reinsurance (Quota Share)
Primary Insurer: * Calculates premium including acquisition & administration costs * Cedes part of the original premium including the portion attributable to costs to the reinsurer Reinsurer: * Reimburses the costs via commission * Pays % of losses Characteristics: * Fixed percentage 0
28
Non-proportional reinsurance
* Sharing of losses is based on the actual loss suffered * Determination of the price based on historical loss experience (experience pricing) and the expected loss burden (exposure pricing) * Participation of the reinsurer occurs when the reinsured risk is effectively affected by a loss and the latter exceeds the deductible of the primary insurer * Certain threshold (on the balance sheet)
29
Example quota share (Proportional Pro Rata)
30
Surplus reinsurance
* For each policy I (i=1…n) the part of Sl (surplus) above a specified amount is reinsured * Maximum exposure kept by the primary insurer is called retention R (or line) * R is the same for all n policies * The surplus S in excess of R is ceded to the reinsurer (S is a multiple of the line) * Curbs exposure to larger single risks (make portfolio more balanced) * Most common form of proportional reinsurance
31
Examples Surplus Reinsurance
9 Lines Concept * The "9 lines" means that the reinsurer covers 9 times the primary insurer's retention: 300,000×9=2,700,000 This matches the reinsurer's share of the sum insured (2.7m). * Sum Insured: The total insurance coverage is 130,000. * Premium: The premium is calculated as 1.5‰ (1.5 per thousand) of the sum insured: Premium=130,000×0.0015=195\text{Premium} = 130,000 \times 0.0015 = 195Premium=130,000×0.0015=195 * Losses: The total losses amount to 80,000. * Retention Limit: The primary insurer’s retention remains at 300,000. Since the total sum insured (130,000) is less than the retention limit, the reinsurer does not participate in this case. * 9 Lines Limitation: Although the reinsurer’s liability is typically limited to 9 times the retention amount, this does not come into play here because the total risk is already below the retention.
32
Surplus insurance pros / cons
Pros * Limits the primary insurer’s exposure to the single largest risks in its portfolio * Thus, surplus reinsurance allows balancing the portfolio * High flexibility, since retentions can be set at various levels depending on the type of risk, the size of a risk, and the primary insurer’s overall risk appetite Cons * Compared to quota share reinsurance, surplus reinsurance is associated with a more complicated and costly treaty administration * Losses below the retention must be fully borne by the primary insurer * Losses above the maximum surplus require additional facultative reinsurance
33
Excess of loss reinsurance per risk (XL/R) Main aspects
Main aspects * Indemnification for those single losses in the portfolio that exceed the retention 𝑅𝑅 * Cover extends to all policies defined in the terms of the treaty * Reinsurer’s exposure is limited by the reinsurance cover or layer 𝐿𝐿 * Additional annual limit for the total amount of covered claims may apply * Effective mitigation against large single losses (e.g., destruction of expensive buildings) * Inadequate protection against high frequency risks or loss accumulation across policies
34
Excess of loss reinsurance per event (XL/E)
Main aspects * Covers aggregate losses on an insurance portfolio caused by a single event * As for XL/R reinsurance, the reinsurer bears a layer 𝐿𝐿 above the retention 𝑅𝑅 * The primary insurer retains the part of the total portfolio loss below 𝑅𝑅 * Mitigation against cumulated losses from the same cause, such as a catastrophe (“CatXL”) * Example: hurricane leads to a high number of losses in a property insurance portfolio * Often combined with XL/R reinsurance
35
Background After applying all proportional covers, a primary insurer retains 8m. To protect his retention against major losses, he buys XL/R protection of 6m in excess of 2m (6xs2m). To further protect his retention from catastrophic events, he also buys an XL/E coverage with the limits of 9xs4m. Determine the losses of the primary insurer and the reinsurer for the three cases below. Loss events 1. A fire leaves the primary insurer with a loss of 1m 2. A major fire leaves the primary insurer with a loss of 7m 3. An earthquake causes the following losses for the primary insurer: Risk A: 1m Risk B: 1m Risk C: 1m Risk D: 2m Risk E: 4m Total: 9m
36
Excess of loss reinsurance per calendar year (stop-loss) Main aspects
Main aspects * Reinsurer fully covers any part of the total annual loss that exceeds the deductible 𝑅𝑅 * Provides most comprehensive level of coverage, but usually a technical loss is required: − aggregate losses + administration costs > aggregate premiums − Ensures that the insurer does not relax its underwriting standards * Allows to smooth earnings through a protection against large annual loss fluctuations * Least frequent form of non-proportional reinsurance
37
Excess of loss reinsurance per calendar year: An illustrative example Background The primary insurer's annual premiums from its participation in a risk amount to 50m with an administrative expense ratio of 30%. To protect against annual fluctuations, he concludes a stop-loss contract with 50%xs100%
38
Proportional vs. non-proportional reinsurance Why use excess of loss contracts
Pros - Protection against extreme single and accumulated losses - Retain a higher proportion of the original premium - Lower administration costs for both insurer and reinsurer Cons - Smaller losses below the deductible are not reinsured - Reinsurer prices risk: need to provide data for complete portfolio - Lack of loss sharing above the absolute deductible may lead to reckless underwriting by the insurer
39
How to determine an insurance company’s profit
40
Types of losses: Normal losses vs. CAT losses
* An insurer needs to forecast future claims payments to determine its underwriting profit * While doing so, it is important to distinguish two different types of losses: normal losses and CAT losses
41
Normal losses: Loss distribution profile
42
Loss ratio vs. expense ratio vs. combined ratio (underwriting margin) 1. Provide an interpretation of the loss ratio, expense ratio, and combined ratio (i.e, what do high/low values imply) 2. Name at least three reasons, why the loss ratio is an important KPI for an insurance company. 3. Name two limitations of the loss ratio
1. Loss ratio: A low loss ratio suggests strong underwriting profitability, but may indicate overly restrictive pricing or inadequate coverage, while a high loss ratio indicates that a high proportion of premiums is spent on claims, which could signal unprofitable underwriting or increased risk exposure. Expense ratio: A low expense ratio indicates efficient cost management relative to premiums, while a high expense ratio reflects high operating costs (inefficiency in underwriting, marketing, and/or administration). Combined ratio: Break-even if 100%, positive UW result if <100%; negative UW result if >100% 2. Performance measurement, pricing and reserving, (peer) benchmarking, regulatory monitoring 3. Expenses are not taken into account, short-term focused, not adjusted for the underlying risk
43
Stats Big 8 insurers
Loss ratio p&c 70% health 70% Expense ratios 25% health 20% combined 95% health close to 90%