Florians Lectures Flashcards
Business Model of an Insurance
- Risk pooling (financial liquidity available for all members, guaranteed access to the pool in case of a loss, solidarity between participants
- Insurer takes on risks from individuals or companies (policyholders or insured)
- Insured pays a premium & receives benefits (life) or indemnification (non-life)
- Insurer pools the risks & hedges with reinsurance or other risk management tools
- Law of large numbers: the larger the portfolio of independent risks, the more accurately one may predict the average loss
- Underwriter: due-diligence for new policyholders, estimates the risk profile of the potential policyholder
Underwriting Result
Premium + 100
Expenses - 30
Claims – 75
_____________
TR (Technical Result) -5
ER (Expense Ratio) 30/100 = 30%
LR (Loss Ratio) 75/100 = 75%
CR (Combined Ratio)= 105%
Why are not profitable insurances still offered:
-Asset Management (invest premiums)
-cross selling
Switzerland: Combined Ratio about 90%
Efficiency of insurances depends on (3)
- Market power
- Solvency
- Law of large numbers (better prediction of true premium, higher likelihood to be able to grow)
Risk transfer
- If equity falls short the insurance is insolvent. The insurance then has to go to an Reinsurer (for example Swiss Re), Reinsurance acts like an insurance for the insurance company
- Primary Insurance: Individuals & Companies insure risks & pay a premium & in return receive indemnifiactions or benefits
- Reinsurance: Primary Insurers pass on portfolios of similar risks or large single risks, Reinsurance reduces claims volatility & safeguards against extreme events
- Capital markets: Reinsurers may pass on risks to other reinsurer in the retrocession market, Insurance-linked securities (ILS): transfer risks to investors in the capital market
Insurance markets
- Heavy leveraged (manage large amounts of liabilities compared to equity) & strictly regulated institutions
- Rating: a measure of solvency & product quality
- Underwriting cycle (primarily in property-casualty business):
o Soft markets: periods with oversuplly of insurance & low premiums, last 10 years in Switzerland
o Hard markets: periods with an undersupply & high premiums
o Depends on interest rates: low interst rates -> oversupply of capital -> large loss led to higher premiums not possible because of the market (oversupply)
o Hard markets: during covid: higher costs for for repairing cars ->higher premiums
Insurance Risks
- Risk assumed by insurers when selling risk cover: property, damage, libility, life, health risks
- Narrow interpretation: refers to the specific insurance risk without considering broader risks like market risk, credit risk or operational risk
- Insurance risk strictly involves the likelihood and severity of claims exceeding the premiums and reserves held by the insurer
Two main categories of insurance risks
- Non-life Insurance:
o (Re)insurance pays policyholder’s claim in case of damace
o Risk of loss: property damage due to loss events (e.g. natural catastrophes)
o Risk of accidents: accident damage & legal liability (may include negligence) - Life insurance:
o (Re)insurance pays for death, illness & disability
o Longevity/mortality risk: financial consequences of excessively long/short life expectancy
o Health risk: potential worsening of health condition due to injury or illness
Asymmetric information
- Moral hazard: after the contract (e.g. We take more risks because it is insured (doing sport activities), methods against moral hazard: deductable, bad loss history=higher premium, black lists
- Adverse selection: before the contract (screening techniques: medical tests, incentives
- Signaling: incentives (e.g. incentive if nothing happens: lower premium)
Criteria for the insurability of risks (11)
- Risk/Uncertainty: measurable: might be unpredictable, no data, new line of business or few clients, extreme events, cyber insurance: risks can’t be observed
- Loss events: should be independent, so they do not cascade and get bigger, capability to diversify
- Maximum loss & loss frequency: insurance wants risks with high frequency & moderate financial risks (e.g. car accidents)
- Moral hazard/adverse selection: medical tests, deductables, screenings, try to get rid of asymmetric information
- Insurance premium: has to be competitive, know the costs in order to cover the risks
- Coverage limit: has to be payable if the risk occurs
- Industry limit: sufficient, bring in spv’s
- Regulation: is the product accepted by the society & the laws?
- Legal system: cluster granates: no insurance against this
Significant 2018 economic loss events
Criteria for the insurability of catastrophe risks (CAT claims)
(6)
- Low frequency & high severity ( maximum loss controllable, low loss frequency)
- Randomness: non-predicability, problem: a lot of occurrences happen at the same time (terrorism risk usually excluded)
- Assessability: is given, although confidence intervals (uncertainty) tend to be wider, terrorism risk falls into a gray area where assessment is particularly difficult
- Independence: should ideally be given, not a strict requirement, especially for correlated risks like hurricanes & earthquakes
- Maximum loss: insurers must be able to cap their liability to ensure that catastrophic losses do not bankrupt the insurer (policy limits), reinsurance agreements are used to diversify & transfer part of the risk to other entities
- Economic viability: low frequency, high severity events, small net risk premium relative to the exposure: the total premium for such coverage tends to be high due to significant risk loading
Structure of an insurance premium
- Cost loading: cost structure of the insurance company (e.g. administration)
- Risk Loading: increases with uncertainty (CAT risks), surrounding the expected claims estimate
- Net risk premium: accounts for expected loss of the contract (distribution mean
Insurance in Switzerland
- Year 2017: Total empoyees world-wide 147k, 46k CH, 101k international
- Year 2017: 35k employee in admin, 12k insurance advisors
- Year 2017: premiums written: Life Insurance: CHF Mio. 29k, health insurance: 10k, motor insurance 6k, fire & property 4k
- Year 2017: claims CHF Mio.: Life insurance 28k, Health insurance 8l, Motor insurance 3k, fire & property insurance 2k
Risk profile structure (2)
- Balanced (homogenous) portfolio
o Similar & equally weighted risks
o Compensation of the loss burden can be managed in the own risk portfolio
o Example: large motor insurance portfolio of a primary insurer - Imbalanced (heterogeneous) portfolio
o High amounts & highly vulnerable risks
o Coverage or compensation with reinsurer
o Example: nuclear & aviation insurance
Reinsurance agreements
- Reinsurer takes on part of the risk
- ceding a risk: primary insurer (cedent) transferring the risk pays a premium
- The original policyholder is not involved in the transaction
- Single risks or entire portfolio can be transferred
- Reinsurers are multinational institutions with ability to diversify risks globally
- Reinsurance agreements between reinsurers are called retrocession
Achieving balance via collective risk transfer
- Retrocession: process where a reinsurer transfers part of its assumed risk to another reinsurer
- Reasons: Risk distribution, capital management, protection from large losses
- Benefits: Risk diversification, financial flexibility, protection from catastrophic events
Achieving balance via collective risk transfer (2 graphic)
Reinsurance cycles
The Regional Property Catastrophe RoL Index highlights the cyclical nature of reinsurance pricing driven by large-scale catastrophes. While the U.S. and Asia-Pacific experience significant volatility, Europe and the UK remain relatively stable with lower rates.
* 9/11: soft market, lot of capital in the market, difficult to increase prices
* 90s: hard market, high interest rates, hard to get capital
Benefits of reinsurer
Risk components (required capital)
Required capital depends on underwriting, counterparty, and investment risk
investment risk has to be risk weighted
underwriting risk contains premium, reserve and cat risk
Solvency ratio = available cap / req cap
Available capital = Equity (retained earnings, commonstock ) + Subordinated debt
Cost of capital = Cost of Equity
Cost of Equity = risk free rate + risk premium
Risk premium= underwriting + Investment
Economic value= (Return on Equity – Cost of Equity) x Equity
ROE = Net income / Equity
Risk components (required capital) 2
Cost of capital = Cost of Equity
Cost of Equity = risk free rate + risk premium
Risk premium= underwriting + Investment
Economic value= (Return on Equity – Cost of Equity) x Equity
ROE = Net income / Equity
Basic forms of reinsurance
- Scope of the contract:
o Facultative reinsurance: covers individual risks, case-by-case-assessment
o Obligatory (treaty) reinsurance: covers whole portfolios of policies or lines of business - Type of risk (& premium) sharing:
o Proportional reinsurance: sharing of sum insured, premiums, and losses according to a ratio
o Non-proportional reinsurance: reinsurer bears losses above a fixed threshold (deductible)
Facultative reinsurance
- Reinsurer can reject or accept any individual risk
- Risk selection process (underwriting) as main driver of reinsurer’s profit
- Suitable instrument for hedging risks outside a treaty
Obligatory (treaty) reinsurance
- Reinsurer cannot select different risks on a case-by-case basis
- Long-term relationship between insurer and reinsurer
- Less cost-intensive than facultative reinsurance