final Flashcards
what is public opinion?
an aggregation of individually held opinions. “those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed”
how can a competent surveyor gather an accurate assessment of public opinion?
a poll of 1200-1500 respondents
how accurate will a a poll of 1200-1500 respondents be?
within a margin of 3 percentage points of the true opinion of the population being sampled
what are 3 errors/difficulties with polling?
1) sampling error
2) selection bias
3) measurement error
an error that arises rom the fat that one must use a sample of the population to estimate the opinion of the population.
sampling error
a sample is not actually representative of the population because the sample was not generated by a random process
selection bias
what is response rate?
certain sub-populations are not as likely to agree to participate in a survey
what occurs because answers for surveys are often just of the top of the head responses that are not firmly held opinions
measurement error
what is a typical source or cause of measurement error? what are some examples?
question wording:
- confusing questions
- leading questions
- oversimplified questions
why do president and presidential candidates poll the public so much?
polls are used to gauge the public’s views and the favorability of candidates and used to see if pushing a certain issue can help shape opinion
since when has polling been a very common practice?
since President Jimmy Carter
what 4 things specifically guide public opinion?
1) attitudes
2) ideologies
3) core values
4) partisanship
what is an attitude?
an organized and consistent manner of thinking, feeling, and reacting with regard to people, groups, social issues, or more generally, any even in one’s environment
what is an ideology?
a coherent structure of attitudes that are consistent in the sense that one can accurately predict a person’s stance on a host of issues if the individual is ideologically sophisticated
what is the relationship between ideology and attitude?
ideologies link attitudes together into something greater, as in coalitional politics “he’s a conservative”
specific guiding principles that some individual holds to structure their view of politics
core values
partisanship
a psychological attachment to a political party
how is partisan ship typically measured?
on a 7 point scale
is it true that partisanship is generally handed down from parent to child?
yes
when is partisanship weakest?
during college years
when “the race” is close, what part of partisanship tends to make the most difference?
independents
why are polls not accurate in predicting an issue that has close to 50/50 support?
it is too close to have an accurate reading, given the the margin of error; “the race is too close to call”
what has the biggest impact on the development of public opinion?
political socialization
what is political socialization?
the process of acquiring political attitudes through influences in one’s environment (such as family, community, religion, schools, etc.)
what 4 thing are most prominent in shaping public opinion?
political socialization
personal experience
self- interest
the media
what does it mean to be a “cognitive miser”?
reluctant to pay the cost of acquiring information that has no practical payoff
what is the effect of being a cognitive miser on public opinion
public opinion are often uninformed, not ideological, and inconsistent across time and issue domains
what is framing?
presenting a story or issue in a certain way to express an opinion
who wrote the rational public?
page and shapiro
according to rational public, why is public opinion meaningful?
because the well informed subset of the population drives the results of aggregate public opinion, aggregated public opinion is stable, consistent and rational
public opinion pushes back when politicians/political parties move too far to the left for right. who wrote about this?
James Stimson in the Tides of Consent
who wrote Assessing the President?
Richard Brody
what is Assessing the President about?
it expounds on how the media end elites shape public approval of the president (this explains the honeymoon effect and the rally round the flag effect)
what did John Zaller write?
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
what did The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion say?
elites can foster mainstream effects or polarization effects in public opinion
how can elites foster mainstream effects in public opinion?
when they are in agreement, public opinion of the mass may also be in agreement
how can elites foster polarization effects in public opinion?
when elites disagree, the public opinion tends to polarize with the differing views
what is the long-term trend in the american public’s trust in the government? short-term?
long term- downward trend
short term- upward trend based on the economy and crisis/leadership
what are some fairly recent things that have contributed to the decline in public trust/confidence in government?
watergate scandal and LBJ’s deceptiveness
generally speaking, what is public opinion on economic issues?
favors more spending
generally speaking, what is public opinion on social and moral issues?
most often people need to know the context before they’ll form an opinion even though debate is dominated by extremists on the left and right.
on what social/moral issue is public opinion growing more liberal?
gay rights
what is a cognitive shortcut
making an assumption because you don’t want to go through the work to be informed
expound on “issue publics”
while people are often uninformed on political issues, they develop expertise in the area they work in or in the things they are interested in
when was public opinion on military issues most united?
during the cold war
what even has made the public opinion on military issues more split?
9/11
what are the main factors in someone’s “back ground” that effects their opinion?
- race and ethnicity
- gender
- income and education
- religion
- location/environment (state, rural vs. urban, etc.)
what does the racial/ethnic divide most effect?
partisanship and presidential votes
women tend to be less supportive of _______ and more supportive of _______
aggressive military conflict; spending on social welfare programs
true or false: there is a great gender gap on the issue of abortion: men tend to be more in favor than women
false: no significant gender gap
do educated people tend to be more or less tolerant?
more tolerant
people who have higher incomes tend to favor what?
less taxes
individuals with no education are found to be mostly _________
democratic
during high school years, people are found to favor _______ views
republican
individuals with a college degree tend to have _______ views
democratic
does religion more strongly effect white people or african americans in regard to politics?
whites
how does living in an urban for rural setting effect one’s views?
urban- more diversity; more democratic
rural- conservative and traditional
what do we mean when we say that your age effects your opinion
it matters when you were born- what was happening politically, socially and economically when you were born/ growing up
does the constitution say anything about political parties? did the founding father’s favor parties?
no the constitution does not say anything and the founding fathers did not want political parties
why do we not do away with political parties?
they are too useful and efficient
PIG
Party In the Government (elected with a party label)
PIE
Party in the Electorate (people/voters who identify with a party)
PO
Party Organization (committees, national committees etc.)
which came first, the PIG, PIE, or PO?
PIG
what kind of system does the US have?
2 party system
Why does the US have a 2 party system
we have a FPTP system
what are the incentives for party building?
stabilize legislative and electoral alliances
mobilize voters
develop new electoral techniques
use party labels/ enforce collective responsibility
what does it mean that our party system is decentralized?
political parties look different depending on where you are in the US
what is characteristic of the second party system?
organizational innovation:
national conventions
the spoils system
who was the first to implement national conventions?
andrew jackson
when did PIE fully materialize?
2nd party system
what is characteristic of the 3rd party system?
entrepreneurial politics:
- party machines
- the progressive attack
- the consequences of progressive reforms
when did secret ballots come about?
3rd party system
what is characteristic of the 4th party system?
republican ascendancy
what happened during the 5th party system?
creation of New Deal coalition and the erosion of the New Deal coalition
why was there a “rule change” during the 5th party system?
a riot broke out at the national convention in Chicago, as a result primary elections and caucuses are held to determine nominees
how have conventions evolved since 1968
nominees are no longer decided at conventions, rather they are a show or coronation for the already picked nominee
what happened as a result of fractured alignments during the 5th party system?
voters became more indifferent to the parties
as people moved more toward independent partisanship, what did this mean for incumbents
they had an advantage. There was a higher chance of reelection; the personal vote mattered more because people were more attached to a candidate than a party
when did independent and 3rd party candidates increase their take?
during 5th party system
when did divided partisan control of governments become more common?
5th party system
have people been moving to or away from partisanship since 1968?
to partisanship (increase in party ID)
true or false: the gap between the 2 parties has increased since 1968?
true
pure democracy
the people rule
does the US have a pure democracy?
no- we have a representative democracy
who wrote The Power Elite?
C. Wright Mills
the US government is run by a small number of people
Elite model
what is the goal of the elite model?
maintain power
interest group liberalism
US system of government is best understood as a system run by numerous groups- to understand politics, one must understand the interaction of groups
for which model is this a problem: the system appears open, but elites determine/set the agenda behind closed doors
interest group liberalism
for which model is this a problem: not all groups can mobilize and therefore will not serve as a check on other groups
interest group liberalism
lobbying arises naturally from the nature of representative government. How/Why?
Interests seek influence from elected officials and elected officials seek resources from interests
what would the absence of factions mean?
absence of liberty
what is the solution to factions?
control the harmful effects by fragmenting government vertically and horizontally
what was established in the colonial era of politics?
insider and outsider tactics of lobbyists
who wrote a book about lobbyists?
Alexis de Tocqueville
when did interest groups become common?
1830’s
according to The Logic of Collective Action why is it rational for interest groups not to form?
because most groups that form are seeking collective/public goods- it is sensible to free ride if the good will accrue to everyone