FINAL Flashcards
Weeks 11-15
Bond Price Relationship
interest rates and bond price have an inverse relationship
Bond Price Movements
- Maturity (longer maturity = greater price sensitivity)
- Coupon (lower coupon = greater price sensitivity)
- Initial YTM (lower YTM has greater price sensitivity, greater PV of cash flows, higher duration)
Bond with a Warrant
warrant = give holder the right to buy a fixed number of stocks at a predetermined price by a certain expiration date.
Pricing = straight value of bond + market value of warrant
Convertible Bond
Convertible bond gives holder the right to convert the par value of the bond to common stock at a pre-determined price (conversion) by a certain date.
conversion ratio = par value of bond/ per-share conversion price
Macaulay’s Duration
weighted average time before the owner of the bond receives half of the present value of the bond’s cash flows
- based on maturity date, timing of intermediate and ending cash flows and YTM
Portfolio Duration
weighted duration of each bond in the portfolio
Duration vs Modified Duration
duration is a measure of how sensitive a bond is to changes in interest rates. modified duration quantified the bond’s price sensitivity to a change in interest rates
modified duration = duration (1+y)
Expected $ Change in Bond Price
$ change = -modified duration * change in y * bond price
% change = -modified duration * change in y
Limitations of Modified Duration
only considers changes in interest rates, assumes a linear relationship; therefore, only accurate for small interest rate changes
Convexity of the Price Change
duration is a good measure of price change for small interest rate changes but less accurate for larger moves. prices appreciate more than calculated with duration alone, when yield decreases
Convexity and Callable Bonds
price appreciation is capped with callable bonds because the company can call at a premium and refinance. price appreciation is capped with mortgages because holders can refinance.
Bond Characteristics
bond portfolios can provide the investor with a range of risk and return characteristics.
returns: coupon payments, accrued interest with zero coupon bonds, capital appreciation/loss
risks: changes in interest rates, credit-rating changes, default risk, liquidity risk, call risk, pre-payment risk
Bond Index Investing
create portfolio that replicates a bond market index, portfolio does not necessarily have to match the exact index but rather closely match characteristics
Cash Flow Matching
matching the bond’s maturity to when the liability is due. minimizes risk that interest rate moves would reduce the future value of the bond
Portfolio Immunization
matching the duration of bond portfolio with the investment horizon of the future liability or duration of liabilities. balances the overall effect of interest rate moves.
Active Bond Management
open account with firm offering individual bonds, research (type of bond, coupon rate, etc), interest rate anticipation, yield curve strategy, sector rotation (over or under weighting sectors), credit analysis (front-running a credit upgrade or downgrade)
Bond Swaps (active management)
- maturity swap (sell bond and buy another to alter overall maturity of portfolio)
- quality swap (sell bond and buy another to alter the overall quality rating of the portfolio)
- yield swap (swap bond to improve yield)
- tax swap (sell one bond and buy another similar yet different bond to harvest capital loss and offset capital gain up to $3,000 of ordinary income)
Formula Bond Investing
Bond Ladders: staggered maturity dates
Bond Barbells: average maturity based on portfolio of short and long term bonds
Bond Bullet: staggered purchase date with same maturity
Riding the yield curve: duration of bond portfolio exceeds duration of liability
Capitalized Earnings
normalized earnings divided by an appropriate capitalization rate
Preferred stock valuation
price of preferred stock = dividend/k (rate)
Dividend Discount Model
D1 = D0 (1+g)
Constant growth DDM = D0(1+g)/(k-g)
Reversion to the Mean
stock prices tend to trade above and below intrinsic value because of market sentiment
Bottom-up vs Top-down
bottom-up: individual securities to sectors/industries to economy
top-down: reverse order
Fundamental Analysis
- Economic and Industry Prospects (macroeconomic analysis, seasonality and cycles, industry prospects and trend projections)
- Company Operational Analysis (financial statements, ratio/trend, company prospects)
- Valuation (TVM, market multiples)
Intangible Assets
People, relationships, infrastructure, knowledge
Ratio Analysis
Provides for meaningful comparisons based on SEC industry code and company size
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio: current assets/current liabilities
Quick ratio: (current assets - inventory)/ current liabilities
Working capital: current assets- current liabilities
Coverage Ratios
times interest earned: operating profit (EBIT)/ interest payment
Leverage Ratios
Debt to equity: debt/equity
Debt to assets: debt/assets
Asset Utilization Ratios
Account Receivable Turnover: sales/((begin receivables+end receivables)/2)
Average Sales Credit Period: days in year/turnover ratio
Management Performance Ratios
Return on Assets: net income/assets
Return on equity: net income/ equity
Profitability
Gross Profit Margin: GP/Revenue
Operating Profit Margin: EBIT. Revenue
Net Income Profit Margin: Net income/ revenue
Dupont Analysis
expanded return on equity equation
2-lever model: ROE=ROA (NI/assets)/Financial Leverage (total assets/equity)
3-lever model: ROE = profitability (NI/sales)asset turnover (sales/assets) financial leverage
Dividend Policy
Board of Directors Establish dividend policy
payout ratio = total dividends paid/ total earnings
Retention (plowback ratio) = 1-payout ratio