Final Flashcards
Offensive cyber tools
Spearfishing, denial of service, ransomware, wiper malware, zero-day exploits
Wiper malware
malicious software designed to delete data
zero-day exploits
flaw in software or operating system that can be exploited with no detection
Nation-state threats
russia, china, iran, and north korea
russian criminal and hacking groups
DarkSide, REvil, Evil Corp
Russian cyber operators
GRU, FSB, SVR
GRU
Russia’s premier military intelligence agency, physical and virtual world operations
SVR
Russia’s premier foreign intelligence agency, operates with a traditional foreign intelligence focus
FSB
Russia’s premier domestic intelligence agency
Executive branch cyber roles and responsibilities
Protect and promote, regulate and oversee, detect and disrupt, prosecute and penalize
Protect and promote
Department of Homeland Security
Department of State
Regulate and Oversee
Federal Trade Commission
Federal Communications Commission
Department of Commerce
Office of Management and Budget
Election Assistance Commission
Detect and Disrupt
DoD (CYBERCOM)
FBI
Intel Community (NSA)
Prosecute and Penalize
Department of Justice
Department of treasury
(Cyber) Military Options
Military, Diplomatic, economic and regulatory, homeland security and law enforcement, state and local government, private sector
Classic security concepts
Escalation, Retaliation, coercion, deterrence, attribution
U.S. cyber operations doctrine
Swift consequences, persistent engagement, defend/hunt forward
Ways to address climate change
new/improved technology
laws and regulations
economic incentives
social and psychological incentives
programmable thermostats (PT)
technical potential: 10-15% reductions in energy use
No difference in energy use among homes with and without a PT
Behavioral wedge
17 types of household actions that don’t require new regulation, could save 123 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 10
Behavioral plasticity
The proportion of current non-adopters that could potentially be induced to take action
Initiative feasibility
the likelihood that a change agent will adopt and then implement a mitigation initiative
UK Behavioral insights team
2010: started in cameron administration as part of gov
2013: partially privatized company with global offices
Social and behavioral sciences team
Started by obama white house 2015 (subcommittee of national science and technology council)
Disbanded under Trump (members moved to other gov offices and left for private companies)
Injunctive norms
how people should behave
descriptive norms
how people actually behave
The boomerang effect example
marked pieces of petrified wood in park
The Big Mistake
advocates/policymakers often try to highlight the frequency of bad behavior because they want to fix it
climate of silence (not talking about climate change)
only 25% of americans regularly discuss climate change
Behavioral spillover
the effects of an intervention on subsequent behaviors not directly targeted by that intervention
Negative spillover
threat to behavioral approach, could undermine policy support, may need more exclusive focus on regulatory or price-based approaches s. voluntary approaches
positive spillover
virtuous escalator, foot in the door effect, self-perception theory
Negative spillover
single action bias, rebound/takeback effects, moral licensing
moral hazard
fear that non-mitigation approaches to climate change will undermine support for mitigation
risk compensation hypothesis (moral hazard)
learning about geo-engineering/adaptation–> reduces concern about climate change–> reduces support for mitigation
Risk salience hypothesis (reverse moral hazard)
learning about geo-engineering/adaptation–> increases awareness/concern about climate change –> increases support for mitigation
Technological approaches to climate change
adaptation
Adaptation, geoengineering
sea walls/flood prevention
Upgrades to electrical grids/air conditioning
Agricultural changes (irrigation, changing crops)
Geoengineering
solar geo-engineering and carbon dioxide removal
solar geoengineering
reflect sunlight/heat back to space
Carbon dioxide removal
capture and store atmospheric carbon
Measured variables
Mediator, DV, Moderator
Mediator
perceived threat of climate change
DV
support for climate change mitigation policies
Moderator
political ideology
policy action
set of conditions seen as a problem
definition of problem has emerged and received attention in important public arenas
people are calling for action or intervention
What is the role of science or research in defining social problems and then in deciding how best to intervene with policy?
Evidence-based policy
Evidence-based policy
the development, implementation, and evaluation of effective programs and policies through application of principles of scientific reasoning
Evidence= the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid
How does scientific information get to people who make policy decisions?
formal education and training
scientific journals
media
legislative aids and other staff
lobbyists
social action and advocacy groups
expert testimony
government research
Politics
the process by which groups of people make decisions
social relations involving authority or power
sources of interpersonal power
legitimate, reward, expert, and referent power
legitimate power
formal power or authority
Reward power
power to reward others who comply with preferences about decisions and actions
Expert power
power comes from expertise/knowledge
Referent power
power comes from others wanting to emulate or be loyal to group/individual
what are barriers to a strong link between science and policy?
Scientific process limitations
scientific results are hard to communicate
timing: info not always available when decisions need to be made
study results often contradict each other
Interpretation of same results can vary
Data collection/surveillance systems are designed in ways that value certain types of info over others
Goal: Evidence-Based policy
scientists produce high-quality evidence
findings are translated and disseminated
policymakers use it wisely and appropriately
Reality: policy-based evidence
scientist produce high-quality evidence
findings are translated and disseminated
advocates and policymakers cherry pick results to support agendas; ignore other evidence
Policy analysis
client-oriented advice relevant to public decisions and is informed by data/evidence and social values
types of policy analysis
prospective policy analysis
descriptive policy analysis
Prospective policy analysis
also called ex ante, pre hoc, anticipatory
- predictive and prescriptive analysis
Predictive analysis
projection of future states resulting from adopting particular alternatives
Prescriptive analysis
recommends actions because they will bring about a particular result
Descriptive policy analysis
also called ex-post, post hoc, retrospective
- retrospective analysis and evaluative analysis
retrospective analysis
descriptive interpretation of past policies; descriptive focus on what was implemented
Evaluative analysis
summative program evaluation; were the purposes of the policy achieved; did the policy have an impact?
two main types of prospective policy analysis
policy options analysis
policy miscrosimulation models
- types of economic analysis
- sensitivity analysis
Basic steps in policy options analysis
- Verify, define, detail the problem
- Establish Evaluation Criteria
- Identify alternative policies
- Evaluate alternative policies
- Distinguish among alternatives
- Monitor implemented policy
Gostin framework
- significant risk based on objective science
- Intervention effectiveness by showing reasonable fit between means and ends
- Economic costs are reasonable when compared with probable benefits
- Human rights burdens are reasonable when compared with probable benefits
- Benefits costs and burdens are fairly distributed so that services are provided only when needed and regulatory burdens are imposed only where a risk to community health exists
Classic Framework for Policy Options Analysis
- Establishing the Context: verify/define the problem
- Establish evaluation criteria
- Identify alternative policies
- Evaluate the alternative policy options
- Distinguish among alternatives
- Implement and monitor policy
4 types of simulation models
Microsimulation
discrete event simulation
agent-based modeling and simulation
system dynamics simulation
policy microsimulation models
computer forecasts that attempts to imitate or mimic the operation of gov programs/policies on individual units in the population under different sets of assumptions/interventions
cost-benefit analysis
to determine which of alternative interventions, designed to achieve the same or differ4ent objectives, produces the greatest net benefit in terms of money
cost-effective analysis
to determine which alternative interventions designed to achieve the same objective; produces the most of desired outcome for a given level of expenditure
sensitivity analysis
a test of whether uncertainty about the value of a variable significantly influences the conclusion of an analysis
Potential results of a sensitivity analysis
- Demonstrate that a conclusion depends significantly on a particular assumption
- Demonstrate that an assumption does not significantly affect a study’s conclusion
3.Establish a minimum or maximum value a variable must have for an intervention to appear worthwhile
Core pillars of the public sector
economy, efficiency, effectiveness, equity
program
an organized response to eliminate or reduce a social problem where the response includes one or more objectives, performance of one or more activities, and the expenditure of resources
Policy
A course or principle of action adopted or proposed by a gov, business, or other type of organization
program evaluation
the process that leads to judgements about the worth, effectiveness and efficiency of programs and strategies
Different types of program evaluation
summative, process evaluation
summative evaluation
did the intervention achieve?:
- Impact evaluation: mediators along path
- Outcome evaluation: end/long-term aims
Process evaluation
focuses on implementation of a policy or program (was the policy/program implemented with the quality, content, coverage intended?)
Internal validity
the research design allows for assessments about the effects of an intervention without the threat of rival hypotheses or alternative explanations
Threats to internal validity
history, maturation, testing, instrumentation, loss to follow up, regression to the mean, differential selection
External validity
the ability to generalize the findings of a research study outside of the population included in the research and the specific way in which the research was conducted
