factors which influence voting Flashcards
Long Term Factors
Social Class Age Gender Ethnicity Geography
Short Term Factors
Leadership
Issues/Policies
Media
Leadership
Politics in Britain has become increasingly ‘Presidential’ – many would argue the personality of the leader has a significant influence on voting behaviour.
In 1997 Tony Blair’s energy, youth, dynamism and untarnished imaged contrasted with the tired, worn-out, grey and bland image of John Major.
However in 2005, Labour lost 5.8% of their vote. One of the top three reasons for not voting Labour was that voters did not trust Tony Blair. However the Conservative leader, Michael Howard did not have a positive enough image to win the election.
In 2010 Gordon Brown’s negative image in the media cost Labour a great many votes
Key points when choosing a prime minister:
- Compassion/ empathy
- Strong leadership
- Record in office
Social Class
Class is the basis of British party politics’ argues Pulzer… Most people vote according to their social class. Working class vote Labour (C2/DE), middle and upper class vote Conservative (A/B/C1). Up until the early 1970s roughly two-thirds of the electorate voted according to their social class. Strong class alignment and partisan alignment to distinctly ideological parties
In the past, class/region was a major determinant of voting intention in British politics, with most working class electors voting Labour and most middle class electors voting Conservative. These days, class is much less important because: Working class numbers have shrunk and now represent only 43% of the electorate. Except at the extremes of wealth, lifestyles are more similar. Class does not determine voting intention so much as values, trust, competence and (in Scotland) nationalism or NI religion.
Age
Younger voters and first time voters are more likely to vote Labour.
However the 18-22 age group are more likely to switch their support from one party to another.
Older people are more likely to vote Conservatives – as people become older their view and beliefs often become more ‘conservative’.
Older people also perhaps more likely to own property
With the ageing population appealing to the ‘grey vote’ will become increasingly important
Social Class dealignment
Since 1979 there has been a decline in the number of people voting according to their natural class – known as ‘dealignment’. Supported by Ivor Crewe. He argued there was an ‘old’ and ‘new’ working class. The new working class benefited from Conservative policies such as the right to buy council houses. The new working class were aspirational property owners located in the south east – their growth led to 1983 election defeat for Labour – where they presented a left wing socialist manifesto and were roundly defeated Anthony Heath and others challenged this. Heath argued that the decline in the working class voting for Labour was due to a reduction in the size of the traditional working class. He also argued variations in class and party support were due to the circumstances of each election e.g. problems in the economy. Although the influence of social class is changing and probably declining…….it is still one of the most powerful of all the long term factors in determining which party people vote for in an election. The 2 biggest parties appear to have a base of core support based on social class below which they tend not to fall
Gender
Between 1979-1992 more women voted for the Conservatives than any other party.
In the last three elections there have been no major gender differences in voting.
In 2005 34% of men and 38% of women voted Labour.
The increase in female Labour candidates, female MPs and ‘family friendly’ policies e.g. maternity/paternity leave have helped to attract women voters.
Ethnicity
A majority of Black and Asian voters support the Labour party. Why?
This is due to Labour’s more liberal stance on issues such as immigration and asylum seekers.
Ethnic minority voters are heavily concentrated in inner city areas where Labour support has traditionally been strong.
A significant minority of Asian voters vote Conservative e.g. 25% in the 1997 election.
Large sections of some minority communities have voted against Labour and for left wing alternatives in response to foreign policy in Iraq and Afghanistan e.g. Respect Coalition in Bethnal Green
Geography
There is clear evidence of a North-South divide in voting.
Traditionally the Conservatives were much stronger in the southern half of England, including the English Midlands. Labour on the other hands were much stronger in Scotland, Northern England and Wales.
In 1997 Labour gained support in Greater London and the English Midlands but a North-South divide was still evident.
In the 2005 Election, the Conservatives won only 1 seat in Scotland and 3 in Wales.
