Factors influencing voting behaviour Flashcards
Class as a historical voting factor
historically:
ABC1 : conservative (favored the richer people in their policies - lower tax)
C2DE: Labour due to working class support and things like being trade unionist in the past, which helped the workers
class dealignment
people no longer identifying themselves to belong to a specific class and no longer affects voting patterns
example: 2019 yougov poll - 41% of ABC1 identified as ‘working class’
declining impact of class on voter behavious
last time both parties got 40% of voteshare - 1974 (37 point lead in Tories in ABC1, 35 point lead in Lab C2DE)
2017 - conservatives performed equally as well amond ABC1 and C2DE (44%)
2019 - Conservatives outdid Labour in all social grades - evidencce that class is way less important now
reasons class has waned in importance
- deindustrialisation and less workers in primary sector - shift in layout, C2 past now the new DE - delivery services etc
- middle classes widen as government jobs increase
- salient issue of Brexit - parties such as Brexit and UKIP taking lower class voters, threat of pre Brexit immigration
-Scotland - working class shifted to SNP not Lab - nationalist sentiment
age as a historical voting factor
General tendency for levels of Conservatives support to increase with age - even in 1997 and 2001 Tory led Labour in 65+ category
EU ref - remain support fell with age while leave rose: 73% of 18-24 voters remain, 60% of 65+ leave
continued trend of Labour doing well under age of 40 and Tories dominating in older people
2017: Lab had 47% lead over Tories among 18-19 year old voters while Tories had a 50% lead among 70+ voters (YOUTHQUAKE)
Corbynmania
the young favoring Labour due to social media presence and involvement with Momentum -made parodies and videos, messaged on whatsapp
why the young may favor Labour
- harder to get a job so want benefits and welfare state support
- more liberal idelogy - agree with LGBT rights, trans rights etc
- older - care less about everyone else and mroe about themselves - traditional ideas
- conservatives preserve traditionalist ideologies more
impact of ethnicity on voting
BME/BAME - more likely to vote Labour and usually tend to live in urban settings - cities
what does ethnicity voting depend on?
the ethnicity:
2017: 87% Lab from British Muslims - Jeremy Corbyn very pro Palestine, but fell in 2019 due to antisemitism from jewish voters
Rishi Sunak - British Indians likely to vote Conservative
general lead of Labour in Caribbean and Black voters
Conservatives used to be seen as the ‘racist’ party - Thatcherite
Voting by region
trend is that urban areas are typically Lab, rural = conservatives
SNP took off in Scotland in 2015 (post ref) but used to be strong Lab (under new Lab)
Wales: very pro labour especually the south - coal mining area
2019 voting by region in England
red wall broken by Conservatives - appeal of BoJo, Brexit supporters, dislike of Jezza
typical Lab vote in London, but just outside Conservatives
Brexit - leave areas typically voted Conservative
Hartlepoole by-election
swung to Conservatives after Lab safe seat - voted 70-30 leave Brexit
recent by elections swinging to Labour
Rutherglen and Hamilton West - successful recall petition from SNP, Labour gained.
Mid Bedfordshire - resignation from Nadine Dorries - Labour
Tamworth - Labour gain
individual voting theories
valence - leader competence, how well would a party do in poewr
economy- economically competent party?
based on mainfestos - what policies will benefit voteres the best?
in an age of dealignment, there is more pressure on party leaders to be desirable to voters - ex tony blair and brown losing because of public figure as leader, maybot as well
