Extended Forecasting (Atmospheric Oscillations) Flashcards
What does MJO stand for?
Madden-Julian Oscillation
The MJO is an _____ ______ or “wave” occurring in the global tropics
intraseasonal fluctuation
The MJO results in variations in several important atmospheric and oceanic parameters including:
- lower and upper-level wind speed and direction (divergence)
- cloudiness and rainfall
- surface pressure
- sea surface temperature (SST)
The MJO is a naturally occurring component of our coupled ____-____ system
ocean-atmosphere
The typical length of the MJO cycle or wave is approximately ___-___ days
30-60 days
The MJO is characterized by ____ propagation of regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, primarily over the ____ and ____ Oceans
eastward
Indian and Pacific
The anomalous rainfall is often first evident over the ___ Ocean, and remains apparent as it propagates eastward over the very warm waters of the ____ and ____ tropical Pacific
Indian
western and central
Over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific, the pattern of tropical rainfall generally becomes ____, but often reappears over the tropical ____ and ___
nondescript
Atlantic and Africa
Along with these variations in tropical rainfall with MJO, there are distinct patterns of ___ and ____-level divergence and atmospheric circulation anomalies in the ____ and ____
lower- and upper-level
tropics and subtropics
These features extend around the globe and are not confined to the eastern hemisphere. they provide important info regarding the regions of ___ and ____ motion associated with particular phases of the ____
ascending and descending
oscillation
As active convection moves eastward from the central Pacific to the Atlantic, the feature ____ as it moves into the Western Hemisphere
weakens
When convection is active in the Indian Ocean and Indonesia, in the ___ levels, anomalous easterlies exit the area of enhanced convection in the upper levels of the atmos associated with ____ gyres stradding the equator in both hemispheres ____ and to the ___ of the convection.
upper
anticyclonic
west
Conversely in the upper levels, ____ gyres straddle the equator to the ___ in areas of suppressed convection in both hemispheres
cyclonic
east
When convection is active in the Indian Ocean and Indonesia, in the ___ levels, anomalous easterlies are evident to the ___ of the area of enhanced convection, associated with ____ gyres straddling the equator in both hemispheres
lower
east
anticyclonic
in the lower levels, anomalous ____ are evident within and to the west of the area of enhanced convection, associated with ___ gyres straddling the equator in both hemispheres
westerlies
cyclonic
The low level gyres are generally ___ than those at upper levels
weaker
As the MJO propagates ____ through the central Pacific and eastern Pacific, the lower and upper level cyclonic/anticyclonic circulation anomalies become ___ recognizable and coherent but remain an important component in redistributing mass and convergence/divergence around the global tropics
less recognizable
Enhanced ____ often accompanies the upper level ____ phase of the MJO
rainfall
U/L divergent
However, with MJO, rainfall may be suppressed across portions of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean due to ____ ocean water there
colder
Anomalously strong 850mb ____ occur in the tropics within the lower-level ___ (___) phase of the MJO
easterlies
divergent (dry)
Anomalously strong 850mb ____ occur in the tropics within and immediately west the lower-level ____ (___) phase of the MJO
westerlies
convergent (wet)
850 mb equatorial westerlies south of Mexico are often associated with an enhanced ____ ____ over the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico
monsoon trough
Equatorial westerlies produce ____ shear across the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, which favors ____ ____ formation there.
cyclonic
tropical cyclone
The MJO can substantially modulate the _____ of monsoon systems around the globe
intensity
When does the MJO substantially modulate the intensity of monsoon systems for the following areas?:
- The Australian Monsoon?
- The Asian Monsoon?
- The South American Monsoon?
- The North American Monsoon?
- Australian: SH summer
- Asian: NH summer
- S Am.: SH summer
- N Am.: NH summer
The _____ (___) phase of the MJO can affect both the timing of the monsoon onset and the intensity of the monsoon
divergent (wet)
The ____ (___) phase of the MJO can prematurely end a monsoon and also initiate breaks during already existing monsoons
convergent (dry)
There is evidence that the MJO influences the ___/___ cycle
El Nino/La Nina cycle
The MJO does not cause El Nino, but can contribute to the ___ of development, and perhaps the overall ___ of El Nino episodes
speed of development
overall intensity
The MJO is known to ____ tropical cyclone activity in the Indian, Pacific, Atlantic Oceans, and the Gulf of Mexico
modulate
The MJO modulates this activity (particularly for the strongest storms) by providing a ___-scale environment that is favorable or unfavorable for development
large-scale
Westerly wind anomalies at the ____ in and just behind the MJO’s area of enhanced convection may generate mirror-image ____ gyres straddling the equator respectively
surface
cyclonic
At the same time, in the ___ levels, mirror-image ____ gyres develop along and just behind the area of convection
upper-levels
anticyclonic
The net result of the mirror-image cyclonic gyres at the surface, and anticyclonic gyres at the U/L is:
1) A reduction of U/L wind shear for westward-moving tropical cyclones
2) an increase in U/L divergence
The strongest tropical cyclones tend to develop during the upper-level ____ (__) phase of the MJO
divergent (wet)
As the MJO progresses eastward, the favored region for tropical cyclone activity also shifts ___ from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and eventually to the Atlantic Ocean
eastward
Sea Surface Temperatures must be sufficiently ___ and vertical wind shear must be sufficiently ___ for tropical cyclones to form and persist
warm
weak
Enhanced tropical rainfall in the ___ and ___ Pacific can contribute to extreme rainfall events in ___ North America
western and central Pacific
western North America
A ____ ____ is an event in which an eastward moving upper level divergent (wet) phase of the MJO in the central or eastern tropical Pacific and a retrograding (i.e. westward moving) mid-latitude jet stream trough in the high latitudes.
Pineapple Express
There is a strong year-to-year variability in MJO activity, with periods of ____ activity followed by long periods in which the oscillation is ___ or ____
strong activity
weak or absent
There is evidence that the _____ variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Nino cycle
interannual
Strong MJO activity is often observed during ___ La Nina yeras or during times when El Nino or La Nina is ____
weak
absent
Weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with ___ El Nino episodes
strong
The ____ ____ is a zonal (east-west) direct circulation in the tropical Pacific
Walker Circulation
A ___ circulation is oriented parallel to latitude lines
zonal
A ____ circulation is composed of a circulation where warm air is rising and cold air is sinking
direct
Warm air ____ over the west Pacific during a normal Walker circulation regime
rises
Cooler air ___ over the cooler water of the east Pacific
sinks
Under normal conditions, the west Pacific experiences ____ rainfall, whereas the east Pacific (particularly along and south of the equator) is ___
heavy
dry
With the Walker Circulation, through which months are there normal conditions?
December-February
At the ____, the West and East Pacific are linked by westward-directed trade winds
surface
In the ____-___, the West and East Pacific are linked by eastward-directed winds
upper-troposphere
When the Walker Circulation is strong, ____ pressure resides over the tropical West Pacific
low
When the Walker Circulation is strong, ____ pressure resides over the tropical East Pacific
high
When the Walker Circulation is strong, the ____ winds are strong over the Pacific
trade winds
When the Walker Circulation is strong, the ___ Pacific is wet and stormy
West
When the Walker Circulation is strong, the ____ Pacific is dry and tranquil
East
______ isadisruptionoftheocean‐atmosphere
systeminthetropicalPacifichavingimportant
consequencesforweatheraroundtheglobe.
ElNiño
ElNinoischaracterizedbyamajor_____of
watersinthe________and_______ _____ Ocean.
warming | tropicalcentral | easternPacific
Ocean
El Nino is called “___ ____” because it occurs or was first noticed along the west coast of South America around ____ time
“The Child” | Christmas Time
El Nino occurs every ___ - ___ years and is characterized by a major ____ or even total ____ of the ____ Circulation
2-10 years | major weakening | total reversal | Walker Circulation
Drastic changes in ____ _____ are experienced not only over the tropical Pacific, but throughout the world
weather patterns
El Ninos are characterized by a “_____” SOI
negative
What does SOI stand for?
Southern Oscillation Index
SOI = _____ - _____
SOI = Tahiti SLP - Darwin SLP
When Tahiti SLP is significantly ____ than Darwin, the SOI is _____ and an El Nino may be occurring
lower | negative
In December 2008, the Climate Prediction Center started using the ____ ___ ___ to monitor El Nino
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
El Nino-related atmospheric and oceanic data is routinely measured by an array of ____ in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific
buoys
ONI is based on ____ departures from average in the Nino ___ region, and is now the principle measure of monitoring and assessing El Nino
SST departures | 3.4
The ONI is based on a ____-month running mean of SST departures in the Nino 3.4 Region
3-month
The ONI is used to place current events into a _____ perspective
historical
NOAA’s operational evaluation of El Nino and La Nina are keyed to the ____
ONI
____ ____ is characterized by a ____ ONI greater than or equal to +0.5 deg C
El Nino | positive
___ ____ is characterized by a ____ ONI less than or equal to -0.5 deg C
La Nina | negative
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Nino or La Nina episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least ___ consecutive overlapping ___-month seasons
5 consecutive | 3-month seasons
CPC considers El Nino or La Nina conditions to occur when the monthly Nino 3.4 SST departures ____ or ____ +/- 0.5 deg C along with consistent atmospheric features
meet or exceed
These anomalies must also be _____ to persist for ___ consecutive months
forecasted | 3 consecutive months